Alliance Trust PLC Economic update Shona Dobbie Chief Economist 3 May 2013.

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Presentation transcript:

Alliance Trust PLC Economic update Shona Dobbie Chief Economist 3 May 2013

Source: INKCINCT Cartoons

US – housing and labour markets NAHB Index Prospective Buyers Source: Reuters EcoWin Housing MarketFull-time/Part-time Employment IndexRatio

US – corporate profitability Source: Reuters EcoWin Corporate profits and GDPUS Corporate profits as % GDP Index% Corporate Profits GDP Rebased Jan 2000 = 100

US – weak fiscal position Source: Reuters EcoWin Outlays and receiptsFederal debt USD (billions)USD (thousand billions) Federal Outlays Federal Receipts Federal Debt Outstanding GDP Current Debt Ceiling

US government debt and financing Source: Reuters EcoWin Government bond yield (10 year)Quantitative easing %USD (thousand billions)GBP (billions) US UK Fed Total Assets (LHS) BoE Gilt Purchases (RHS)

Japan – poor economic performance Source: Reuters EcoWin Household spending and investmentGovernment spending and exports Index Households Investment GDP Government Spending Exports GDP

Japan – ‘Abenomics’ Source: Reuters EcoWin Monetary baseConfidence and asset prices JPY (thousand billions)Index (diffusion)Index Confidence (LHS) Topix (RHS)

Japan – the end of deflation? Labour Force (RHS) Core CPI ( LHS) 5yr smoothing Target CPI Source: Reuters EcoWin Yoy % change

Abenomics – impact on currency Source: Reuters EcoWin Index Rebase end June 2012 = 100 Jun 12 JulAugSepOctNovDecJan 13 FebMarApr Sterling Dollar Yen Euro

Europe – unemployment rates Source: Reuters EcoWin Periphery economiesCore economies % Spain Greece Eurozone France Eurozone Germany

Europe – key policy rates Source: Reuters EcoWin % UK Euro-Zone

China – exports and investment Source: Reuters EcoWin ExportsFixed asset investment (FAI) USD (billions)% change yoy (3mma) Source: NBS, In-house analysis Asia Europe US Total Manufacturing

China – structural change? Source: Reuters EcoWin GDP growthBreakdown of GDP % change yoy% of GDP Investment Household Spending

A busy year

Important information Whilst considerable care has been taken in compiling the content of this presentation, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made by Alliance Trust PLC as to its accuracy or completeness. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and are not guaranteed. The original amount invested may not be returned. Any examples are for illustration purposes only, the figures are not guaranteed and should not be relied on. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Further information is available on our website All figures and graphs are sourced at Alliance Trust PLC unless otherwise stated. Nothing said or covered by the presentation today should be construed as being an inducement or invitation in investment activity. No advice is given by Alliance Trust PLC.