“Sphere of R&D and innovation in Russia: analysis of the status and forecast of development” Ms. M. Motova, Head of Sector, Ms. Т. Chinaeva, leading researcher Centre for Science Research and Statistics (CSRS), Federal Institution «Research Institute – Federal Research Center for Project Evaluation and Consulting Services» (SRI FRCEC), Ministry of education and science, Russian Federation International Conference “Scientific and Technological Innovation: National Experience and International Cooperation” May, 2013 ICSTI Headquarters

Main problems determining the condition of R&D human resources 1.Reduction in R&D personnel 2.Decline of its quality 3.Widespread secondary employment 4.Decreased inflow of higher education graduates 5.Outflow of young personnel 6.Ageing of R&D personnel 7.Decline of the prestige of research activities 8.Break in the succession of generations 1

Stages of reduction in R&D personnel PeriodMain characteristics of the stages 1991 – Drastic and implacable reduction in the number of R&D personnel (2-fold) 2.Secondary employment 3.Brain drain 1999 – “Reverse wave” 2.Enhancing personnel misbalance, including the ageing of the R&D contingent, lack of young personnel, and structural violations 3.Reducing number of medium-aged scientists 2002 – – present1.A new stage of the outflow of personnel from the S&T sector 2.New phenomena: –Emergence of numerous small and fragmentary short-term subjects with the participation of a great number of scientists ; –Strengthening stratification among researchers ; –New features of the mobility of personnel. 3.Brain drain from the young contingent of scientists 4.Some return of scientists from abroad (mostly programmers) 2

Main problems of funding of S&T activities Lack of a complex scientifically based funding system Shortage of funds Poor management of cash flows Consequences: –Lack of interrelationship between funding and output –Impossibility to ensure full- value activities of R&D institutions Consequences: –Crisis in human resources –Insecurity of operation costs –Low level of remuneration 3

esti- mate forecast at current prices (billion roubles) 169,9196,3230,8288,8371,1 431,1 485,8523,4610,4720,7796,7896,01000,2 % of the previous year at comparable prices 110,496,198,8108,3112,898,1100,996,5100,7108,9105,6105,4104,0 % of GDP 1,291,151,071,071,121,041,251,161,121,181,201,211,21 Domestic R&D expenditure: Dynamics and short-term forecast 4

Gross domestic expenditure on R&D by source of funds: 2011/2010 Gross domestic expenditure on R&D+0,7 % own funds of R&D institutions+33,5 % government-4,1 % non-budget funds-25,0 % business enterprise sector-0,02 % higher education sector2,7 times private non-profit sector1,5 times funds from abroad+21,6 % 5

R&D funds by main source of funding (increase against the previous year at comparable prices) Budget funds Own funds of organizations Funds from the business enterprise sector 6

Average salary in R&D (2012 – estimate, – forecast) 7

Economic parameters of the progress of the R&D sector: 2015 * ScenariosDomestic expenditure as % to GDP Salaries in R&DEmployment in R&D Inertial 1%1%1,3-1,5 times above the national average Reduction against 2007 by 20% Export-oriented (energy and raw materials) 1,9-2%, including 1% due to private companies Nearly 90,000 roubles Number of researchers – 348,2 thousand (2007 – 392,8 thousand) Innovative2,5-3%, including 50% of total expenditure due to private companies 4-fold growth in real terms, and 1,5-2 times above the national average Growth against 2007 by 6% * Osnovnye parametry sotsialno-ekonomicheskogo razvitija Rossijskoj Federatsii do 2020–2030 godov/ Ministerstvo ekonomicheskogo razvitija. Moscow,

Forecast for R&D expenditure 2015 as % to 2011 I–1.1 II–3.2 III–4.8 IV–1.3 As % of GDP ,1

R&D personnel and average salary forecast: 2015 Inertial scenario Export- oriented (energy and raw materials) scenario Innovative scenario Extrapolati on forecast R&D personnel (thousand) 2015 as % to ,5 87,4 705,4 92,7 847,3 111,3 716,0 97,4 Average salary (thousand) 2015 to 2011 at comparable prices (-fold) 70,8 1,9 87,7 2,4 134,5 3,7 46,4 1, R&D personnel (thousand)–735,3 Average salary (thousand)–28,4 10

Growth of domestic R&D expenditure by source of funds (2015 to 2011 at comparable prices) Inertial scenario Export- oriented (energy and raw materials) scenario Innovative scenario Extrapolati on forecast Total1,13,24,81,3 Budget funds1,11,52,31,2 Own funds of R&D institutions1,33,85,71,51,5 Funds of organisations in the business enterprise sector1,27,611,41,31,3 11

Intramural R&D expenditure by source of funds 2015 Inertial scenarioExport-oriented (energy and raw materials) scenario Innovative scenarioExtrapolation forecast 12

Forecast for appropriations for S&T IndicatorsScenario2015 compared to 2011 (-fold) Appropriations for civil S&T I II III IV 1,6 1,4 2,1 1, compared to 2008 (-fold)–1,4 13

Problem: Deformation of the age-specific structure of R&D personnel and ageing of research teams Yearbelow and overTotal ,615,626,126,920, ,513,823,927,021, ,313,021,927,822, ,013,119,027,823, ,614,216,726,325, ,316,214,724,025,8100 Including: Doctors of science0,11,810,328,459,4100 Candidates of science4,816,816,926,135,2100 Researchers by age group (per cent) Source: calculated by CSRS basing on Russia’s Rosstat data Despite some increase in the number of researchers aged below 40, speaking of it as a steady trend (especially during the crisis) is still too early. 14

Calculation of specialities’ rating based on an expert survey The rating was calculated on the basis of: the proportion of experts who had mentioned the demand for training of candidates/doctors of science for this speciality in the total number of experts believing that this speciality is related to a surveyed priority area; an average mark reflecting the relationship of this speciality with a surveyed priority area. 15

Forecast for graduates from postgraduate and doctoral studies with dissertations defended by field of science and technology Graduates with dissertations defended: 2010 Forecast for graduates with dissertations defended: 2015 Growth rate for graduates with dissertations defended (2015 to 2010), per cent Postgraduate studies Total ,4 Including fields of science and technology: Law ,1 Biology ,4 Agriculture ,4 Pharmacy ,2 Veterinary ,8 Engineering ,2 Physics and mathematics ,7 Medicine ,2 Chemistry ,4 Doctoral studies Total ,7 Including fields of science and technology: Agriculture715207,3 Medicine ,2 Law ,3 Engineering ,7 Chemistry ,3 Physics and mathematics ,8 Biology89112,5 Veterinary--- Pharmacy--- 16

Forecast for enrolment of postgraduate and doctoral students by field of science and technology Number of students in 2010 Forecast for the number of students in 2015 Growth of the number of students (2015 to 2010), per cent Postgraduate studies Total ,9 Including fields of science and technology: Law ,5 Pharmacy ,3 Engineering ,6 Medicine ,1 Veterinary ,8 Agriculture ,3 Biology ,2 Chemistry ,1 Physics and mathematics ,3 Doctoral studies Total ,0 Including fields of science and technology: Veterinary ,5 Law ,3 Agriculture ,0 Biology ,2 Engineering ,7 Medicine ,3 Physics and mathematics ,3 Pharmacy8787,5 Chemistry ,2 17

Thanks for attention