Sales Activated Hub Activated Average Activated Min. degree Time The network structure affects the shape of the sales curve Heterogeneous example

Activated Hub Activated Average Activated Min. degree Time The degree distribution affects the shape of the diffusion curve Homogenous example Sales

Num. of nodes The degree distribution affects the shape of the diffusion curve Power Law Degree Dist. Degree Normal Degree Dist. Time Log( Adoption ) Degree Adoption curve (scale free dist.) Adoption curve (normal dist.)

network-degree space Estimating the network activation patterns from diffusion data Degree distribution estimation example (social-media group membership adoptions over time ) 45% of the activation patterns do not include hubs sales-temporal space

Average % forecasting error for 20 cases (early stages): Bass 99%, S. Gompertz 92%, NUI 50% Network model 34% Forecasting adoption using the estimated network activation pattern Adoption forecasting Bass S.Gompertz NUI network-degree space sales-temporal space