ICES advice as of 30th June 2014 Nick Bailey, Coby Needle, Helen Dobby, Emma Hatfield Marine Scotland - Science

North Sea overview 2014

North Sea cod

Retrospective pattern –Indicates “same outcome as last year” North Sea cod Georges Bank yellowtail flounder

North Sea cod Discarding remained high in 2013

North Sea cod Increasingly northerly distribution

North Sea cod Retrospective pattern Discarding still high in 2013 More northerly distribution F still declining and SSB still rising Recruitment remains low Management plan (EU-Norway): –Catch 2015 = t –Landings 2015 = t –20% reduction on 2014 TAC MSY approach: –61% reduction on 2014 TAC

North Sea whiting

Still no agreed reference points Management plan (EU-Norway): –Catch 2015 = t –Landings 2015 = t –15% reduction on 2014 TAC

North Sea plaice

North Sea plaice Very abundant, historical maximum Management plan (EU-Norway): –Catch 2015 = t –Landings 2015 = t –15% increase on 2014 TAC

Northern Shelf haddock

Now assessed as a single stock MSY approach: –Catch 2015 = t –Landings 2015 = t –8% increase on 2014 TACs ICES yet to advise on area TAC split

Northern Shelf saithe

Management plan (EU-Norway): –Catch 2015 = t –Landings 2015 = t –14.9% decrease on 2014 TAC Two years of discard estimates from EU fleets used in advice: time series too short to use in assessment. Norwegian discard rates assumed 0%.

North Sea herring

Stock considered to be in low productivity phase although above SSB trigger F is below Fmsy Recruitment generally low in recent years because overwinter survival since 2002 remains poor Advice is for catches of t in human consumption fleet (9% reduction on 2014 TAC)

North Sea sprat

Stock has been at or above Bpa since SSB in 2013 is estimated to be at Bpa Fishing mortality has shown an overall decreasing trend since 2004 Recruitment in 2013 is estimated to be one of the highest in the time-series Advice for is landings of t (58% increase on advice)

Fladen Nephrops Abundance Catches Harvest rate Catches 2015 no more than tonnes All catches landed

Moray Firth Nephrops Catches Abundance Harvest rate Landings 2015 no more than 1185 tonnes

Firth of Forth Nephrops Abundance Harvest rate Catches Landings 2015 no more than 1769 tonnes

Farn Deeps Nephrops Abundance Catches Harvest rate Landings 2015 no more than 983 tonnes

North Sea Nephrops General improvement in North Sea Nephrops Increases in abundance and reduced harvest rates in Scottish FUs – advice for increased TACs Fishery at Fladen taking some time to get back to ‘normal’ Other FUs are data limited Advice overall – 14% increase (excl N Deeps)

Mixed fishery advice – North Sea

West Coast overview 2014

West Coast cod

West Coast cod Status unchanged. F continues to be very high and SSB very low Recruitment low since 2001 and considered impaired Discards account for 80% of catches Advice is for no directed fishery and minimise discards

West Coast whiting

Current stock situation poor but showing improvements F is very low,SSB beginning to increase (around Blim) Recruitment has improved in last few years Discards account for high proportion of catches Advice is still for no directed fishery and minimise discards

Rockall haddock

Stock has declined in recent years F is fairly low (just above target) and SSB currently declining A couple of better recruitments in recent years should see stock improve Measures to reduce discards of incoming year classes should be developed Advice is for landings of 2930 t (this represents a 142% increase on current TAC)

West Coast & northern North Sea megrim Same advice as last year: landings of 5950 t (3 % below current TAC) Catches F/F MSY B/B MSY

Northern hake

Stock has been very high in recent years F has decreased but still above target Stock predicted to increase again following recent high recruitment Advice is for landings of t (this represents a 4% reduction on current TAC)

West Coast herring

Stock considered to be stable but at a low level compared to the past F is fluctuating (around target) and SSB above trigger level Recruitment at a low level in recent years Management plan advice is for landings of (reduction of 19% on 2014 TAC)

Blue Ling

Stock in good shape F has been falling for some time, now below Fmsy Biomass increasing Recruitment relatively stable throughout time series Based on MSY approach, catches 2015 not more than 5046 (29% increase)

Ling

Stock in quite good shape, Increasing catch rates imply improving stock biomass New data do not change general perception Data limited approach, advice the same as last year tonnes (III, IV, VI, VII, VIII, XII, XIV)

Tusk

Stocks generally in quite good shape Various stock units including ‘other’ areas (includes IV and VI) New data do not change perception of stock Advice for ‘other’ in 2012 was for 2 years Based on data limited approach advice is for catches no more than 8500 tonnes

Greater Forkbeard

Data limited stock Based on 4 survey series – stock increasing in recent years Large increase (86%) between and Under data limited rules implies an increase in catch of 20% compared to average of last three years – so a TAC of 2628

Cod Haddock Plaice Herring Nephrops North Sea Cod Haddock Rockall haddock Herring Nephrops Hake Saithe Megrim West Coast Widely Distributed Mackerel Status summary