Corridor Integrated Weather System Aviation Weather Users Workshop (CIWS) Bradley Crowe Aviation Weather Users Workshop November 18th - 19th This work was sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration under Air Force Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0002. Opinions, interpretations, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors and are not necessarily endorsed by the United States Government.

Outline CIWS background CIWS base weather products Precip Winter Precip Echo Tops CIWS 2 hour deterministic forecasts Additional CIWS products RAPT overview Future work

Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) Automated Weather Products Decision Support Tools Web-based Tools Dedicated Displays Models (e.g., RUC) Satellites Lightning Real-time Weather Product Generator LLWAS ASOS Surface Weather Canadian Weather Radar NEXRAD ASR-9 TDWR Researchers Aircraft 2008 2007 Dedicated CIWS Display Users Air Traffic Control System Command Center Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCC) (ZAU, ZOB, ZID, ZDC, ZBW, ZNY, ZMP, ZKC) Terminal Radar Approach Controls (TRACON) (N90, C90, CVG, D21, PIT, CLE) Great Lakes Office Airlines with dedicated displays User driven research with high degree of operational interaction Platform for evaluating new forecast technologies in an operational setting Provides digital weather products to weather- assimilated Decision Support Tools and researchers User driven research 3

Operating the Prototype 24 x 7 operation User access to operational team via page, phone, e-mail Proactive user support Observing system behavior and operational use in real- time Regular operation-based training “… we NEED this information to do our jobs … without it, the wheels will come off the wagon …” ZDC STMC Planned for transition to WJHTC by 2011

Estimated CIWS Applications Per Year Estimated Annual Benefits Occurrences CIWS has been tested in the field under operational conditions for 7 years. During that time, we have identified how the products are used to improve traffic flow by direct in-situ observations and after-event user interviews. A very common but powerful use is shared situational awareness. Providing all users with a common view of the weather situation simplifies coordination amongst facilities and reduces workload. We will continue to conduct observations and phone interviews. 1 Improved situational awareness 9 Directing pathfinders 2 Enhanced inter/intra-facility coordination 10 Close routes proactively 3 Reduced workload 11 FAA facility staffing assistance 4 Proactive reroutes 12 Directing traffic through weather gaps 5 Routes open longer 13 More departures during Severe Weather 6 Improved Arr/Dep transition area Avoidance Programs (SWAP) (ATA/DTA) management 14 Improved safety 7 Reduced Miles-in-Trail (MIT) restrictions 15 Improved Ground Delay Program (GDP) 8 Improved Ground Stop Program management management

Overview of CIWS display features Precip Products (title Bar) Forecast Products Color Bars System Menus Echo Tops Products While all functions and products are now available in a single window, CIWS continues to support multiple windows. Loop Controls Secondary CIWS Weather Products Base CIWS Weather Products View Menu

Java based and very similar CIWS on the Web URL: http://www.wx.ll.mit.edu/ciws Click Live Website link Login with assigned Account and Password NWS NWS216 Web and SD are both Java based and very similar Account and Password request available on home page

CIWS Weather Products Precp: Mosaic of Vertical Integrate Liquid Water (VIL) Mosaic consists of NEXRAD, Canadian and TDWR data Winter Precip: Uses VIL with an improved lower threshold to sense weaker precipitation as well as surface and model data to display precipitation type Echo Tops: used high resolution Echo Tops product in a mosaic to display tops at 18 dBZ

Standard and Winter Precipitation Colors Standard colors for past and current weather Winter colors for past and current weather Past Weather Precipitation Colors Standard Winter Liquid Mixed Snow Level 1a Level 1 Level 1b Level 1c Level 1c+ Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6

Precipitation Product Loops from -120 min to present in 5-min increments Spatial resolution is a function of zoom: ~4 nmi to ~0.5 nmi Update rate: 2.5 min when looping Precip only; 5 min when looping with Precipitation Forecast Filter options Click 0: The Precip product is a mosaic of NEXRAD, TDWR, and Canadian weather radars. The data are processed to remove data artifacts and compensate for motion prior to creating the mosaic. Precip resolution is a function of the zoom; from ~4 nmi to ~0.5 nmi. Precip updates every 2.5 min and is presented as a loop of images from -2 hours to present. Click 1: Display of the Precip product is controlled via the Precip button. The left click on the Precip button is a three-way toggle. If Precip is not the base product, the first click changes Precip to the base product. Subsequent left clicks toggle the displayed levels between None and the last user selection in the dialog box. Clicks 2 & 3: Right click the Precip button to display the filter options. In this example, the levels toggle between None and 3-6. First left click selects Precip as the base product Subsequent clicks toggle display levels Right click displays dialog box First left click selects Precip as the base product Subsequent clicks toggle display levels

Precipitation Phase Algorithm RUC Model Data CIWS precipitation phase algorithm CIWS precipitation phase and phase forecast MADIS DATA Precipitation phase algorithm uses: Surface temperature and dew point Upper level temperature and dew point surface precipitation phase data MADIS mesonet stations in the North-American domain on May 26, 2004

Winter Precipitation Product Filter Options Provides additional detail within Level 1 precipitation, which may contain light (Level 1a), moderate (Level 1b), or heavy (Level lc) snow or mixed precipitation Precipitation phase is represented in greens (rain), pinks (mixed), and blues (snow) Coverage equal to extended radar coverage = No Phase Information

Click to display where echo tops exceed radar coverage Echo Tops Product Echo tops in 5000 ft increments (MSL) For 1000-ft increments use Echo Tops Tags Loops from -120 min to present in 5-min increments Spatial resolution is a function of zoom: ~4 nmi to ~0.5 nmi Update rate 2.5 min when looping Echo Tops only; 5 min when looping with Echo Tops Forecast Filter options Click 0: The echo tops product is a map of echo tops computed from radar data. It is presented in 5000-foot increments. (Echo tops tags are shown in 1000-foot increments.) The product updates every 2.5 min and the spatial resolution depends upon the zoom; ~4 nmi to ~0.5 nmi. Click 1 & 2: Echo tops can be filtered by altitude. Click 3: The echo tops values provided in the map represent our best estimate of the true echo tops. However, it is possible for storms to exceed the maximum altitude of the radar coverage. This may happen for storms located over a radar that is not covered by another radar or for very strong tall storms. To display locations where storms top the radar coverage, select the Topped option in the dialog box. When selected, topped regions are shown in black. Click to display where echo tops exceed radar coverage

CIWS Standard and Winter and Echo Tops Forecast Standard precip forecast colors All CIWS base products have an associated forecast product Winter precip forecast colors Precipitation Forecast Colors Standard Winter Liquid Mixed Snow Level 1a Level 1 Level 1b Level 1c+ Level 2 Level 3 Level 5+ Echo Tops Forecast

Overview of CIWS 0-2 hr Forecast Algorithm ASR-9 TDWR Weather Radar NEXRAD Canadian Canadian Satellites Canadian LLWAS ASOS Surface Weather NOAA Numerical Weather Prediction

Precipitation Forecast Product Loops from 5 min to 120 min in 5-min increments Spatial resolution is a function of zoom: ~4 nmi to ~0.5 nmi Update rate: 5 min Product performance may be adversely impacted in the mountains due to beam blockage Airmass storms can present challenges in a 2-hour forecast Filter forecast levels Click 0: the Precipitation Forecast product is a state-of-the-art, completely automated forecast. The forecast increment and update rate are 5 min and is available as a loop. The product spatial resolution is a function of the zoom; ~4 nmi to ~0.5 nmi. Click 1 & 2: Filtering options are available on the Forecast dialog box.

Echo Tops Forecast Product Loops from 5 min to 120 min in 5-min increments 4-level forecast (<30kft, 30 – 34kft, 35 – 39kft, ≥40kft) Spatial resolution is a function of zoom: ~4 nmi to ~0.5 nmi Update rate: 5 min Product performance may suffer in the mountains due to beam blockage Echo Tops Forecast Below FL 300 FL 300 to below FL 350 FL 350 to below FL 400 At and above FL 400 Click 0: The Echo tops Forecast product loops from 5 min to 2 hours in 5-minute increments. The product updates every 5 min and the resolution is a function of the zoom; ~4 nmi to ~0.5 nmi. Click 1 & 2: Filtering is analogous to Precip Forecast filtering Filter options

Additional CIWS products Satellite Lightning Storm Motion Echo Tops tags Growth and Decay Trends Forecast Contours Verification Contours Forecast Accuracy Satellite: Visible/Infrared satellite mosaic. Lightning: White + indicates location of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes over the past six minutes. Storm Motion: Black arrows and blue lines showing movement of Level 3+ weather. Echo Tops Tags: Echo tops labels in 1000-foot increments. Growth & Decay Trends: Areas of growth (orange cross-hatched) and decay (dark blue) within the last 15 to 18 minutes. Click 0: The View menu contains additional functions, including the capability to toggle (Click 1) the display of virtual keyboards on all dialog boxes that allow text input, (Click 2) mouse highlighting (Click 3) color bars (Click 4) the display of radars not contributing to the CIWS products Forecast on Precip Verification on Precip Forecast region on Precip

Route Availability Planning Tool Architecture Route Database Display Pilot Wx Avoidance Model Model for ATC usage of airspace RAPT Algorithm ETMS CDR PLAYBOOK RAPT departure route trajectory database WEB http://rapt.wx.ll.mit.edu Departure route is defined by an airport, a passing fix, and an ending jet route or as a CDR Departure trajectories are based upon average aircraft location, speed and climb profile CIWS Precipitation Forecast CIWS Echo Tops Forecast

Future Work CoSPA 2-8 hr Forecast (Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation) Lightning proxy for VIL and Echo Tops NWS fronts

8 hour Forecast It is proposed that the loop run from -8 hr to +8 hr with 15 min between images. The loop displayed here has a 1-hr increment and ends at +6-hr because it came from the website during testing. Ultimately, we would like to have 8-hr, 15-min increment, 15-min update for CoSPA. However, this loop can be used to show the coverage limits and discuss the product in general terms.

Comparison of CIWS and CoSPA Forecasts   CIWS CoSPA Coverage (Spring 2009) CONUS Northeast* Forecast period +5 min to +2 hr +2:15 min to +8 hr (The first 2 hours of the forecasts come directly from and are identical to CIWS.) Update rate 5 min 15 min Loop increment Loop parameters -2 hr to +2 hr -8 hr to +8 hr

Example of CIWS Use of Lightning VIL This is a cool movie. A massive radar outage on the east coast left huge holes in the coverage west of ZNY. Significant storms developed and New York could not see them. Using lightning as a proxy for VIL, CIWS is able to indicate the presence of storms in the blind spots.

Comparison of Merged Field with Radar Truth Improves precipitation intensity and echo tops heights estimates in areas where radar data are degraded (e.g., radar drop-outs and limits of coverage) Improves precipitation intensity and echo tops heights forecasts Improves safety

Automated front Location NWS provides CONUS front analysis MIT LL tracks and advects fronts Product could update every 5 min The proposal is to draw NWS-generated surface fronts on the CIWS map as an additional product with its own product status button. The NWS product updates every 3 hours, but CIWS could track/advect the fronts to product a 5-min update rate.