Transportation leadership you can trust. presented to presented by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. U.S. 70 Corridor Commission June 19, 2014 Paula Dowell, PhD Rocky Lane U.S. 70 Corridor Economic Impact Assessment

Agenda 1 Economic Development Analysis 2 Traffic Analysis 3 Economic Impact Findings

Economic Development Analysis

Input into Analysis Interviews Counties Municipalities Utilities Regional Economic Development Organizations Focus Groups Data Research

Importance and Current Conditions of US 70 Varies widely from West to East Critically Important for Communities Along 70 Rated 5 on a 1-5 Scale with 5 being the highest Description “Our Main Street” “The Main East-West Artery” “The Only Way In or Out “We Live and Die by What Happens on 70”

All major employers located within two (2) miles Lenoir County ~DuPont – 70 Trucks/Day going to I-95 ~500 Trucks/Day in/out of the main Industrial Park ~Thousands of Jobs within ¼ mile of the US 70 Centerline-Kinston A factor in most plant expansion decision Completion of the Bypass system improves competitive position Raw materials in/Finished goods out Expansion of labor pool Economic Development Implications

Lost Projects in the Region Existing Company Expansions Big Rock Sports ~US 70 Conditions – not the key, but a contributing factor ~Lost 160 Jobs – 80 remain New Locations Boeing-Access to I-95 Gatorade-Access to I-95 Boat Builder

Implications for Port and Global TransPark Completion from I-95 to Port rated “High” Benefits to Port and Counties ~Improve Quality of Port Projects ~Open sites for Port Users Connectivity to I-95 - “Very Important” Global TransPark Enhances GTP’s prospects Potentially opens sites and parks in other Corridor counties Necessary but not sufficient

Military Importance Rated at 4 Out of 5 Connectivity to I-95 – “Very Important” Primary corridor for delivery of mission critical elements - aircraft fuel & parts Primary corridor for personnel going to the Washington, DC area US 70 is not critical to fulfillment of mission Deployment – Non-Issue BRAC – Non-Issue Key Issues – Logistics & commuting related

Summary Economic Profile - solid and healthy Facing Challenges - Not all could be solved with completion of Bypass system Improvements benefit all sectors of economic development Improvements benefit not only the corridor but all of North Carolina

Traffic Analysis

Methodology Based on NCDOT forecasts Individual bypass studies Stakeholder input Key Assumptions Traffic projections completed at bypass level and not corridor level Growth adjusted based on planned development, e.g., 6,000 jobs at GTP in 2040

Change in Travel Times

Economic Impact Analysis

Productivity Market access Business costs GDP Employment Income Impact Categories Business Competitiveness Economic Impacts Travel time Vehicle operating costs Safety cost Reliability Traffic volumes Direct User Impacts

Economic Impact of Not Completing US Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis using the REMI economic model. ( ) denotes negative values

Economic Impact of Completing US

Market Access Analysis and Induced Economic Development Economic development assessment Stakeholder input Site analysis Gap analysis I-40 Corridor US 64 Corridor

Gap Analysis Compare growth rate by industry along corridor Identify area where corridor is over and under performing Examine role of transportation Estimate impact of enhancing transportation on closing any gaps

Growth Comparison

Employment Impact of Closing the Gap I-40 Growth Rate U.S. 64/264 Growth Rate Average Annual Additional Jobs along U.S ,350

Summary Findings Source of Impacts Total Impacts Metric Build U.S. 70 Corridor Business Transportation Costs ($ Billions)($.056) Gross Regional Product ($ Billions) $ $3.80 Personal Income($ Billions) $ $2.85 Jobs (average annual full-time) 1,150 – 1,900 Rest of North Carolina Gross Regional Product ($ Billions) $1.40 Personal Income($ Billions) $1.05 Jobs (average annual full-time) 600 Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis using the REMI economic model. ( ) denotes negative values

Key Takeaways No build results in slower economic growth 340 fewer jobs per year and $800 million less in GRP between 2014 and 2040 Completing US 70 results in $56 million in business cost savings for existing users, $1.2 billion in GRP between 2014 – 2040 Increasing efficiency, accessibility and connectivity translates into 1,150 to 1,900 additional jobs per year along U.S. 70 In total, the upgrading the entire U.S. 70 corridor could give rise to an additional 1,150 to 1,900 jobs along the corridor and up to 2,500 jobs per year statewide