1 icfi.com | Regional Sketch Modeling of VMT Reduction Strategies with the TEAM Approach Frank Gallivan ICF International October 22, 2014

2 icfi.com | Planning: Strategic Direction Planning: AnalysisProgramming Implementation and Evaluation How can sketch modeling inform emissions analysis? Performance-Based Planning and Programming Process Reduce VMT and emissions Sketch modeling tools

3 icfi.com | TEAM MOVES Transportation sketch model (TRIMMS) Regional travel data Travel Efficiency Assessment Method Key advantages: –Simplified –Flexible –Fills gaps in traditional models What is TEAM?

4 icfi.com | What are travel efficiency strategies? Transit Transportation Demand Management Land Use Transportation Pricing

5 icfi.com | Steps in the TEAM approach Identify Strategies of Interest Collect Relevant Data VMT reduction using TRIMMS MOVES Emissions Assessment Potential Emissions Reductions by Pollutant Compare Strategy Effectiveness

6 icfi.com | TRIMMS Data Needs TRIMMS Inputs By modes, to the extent available Specific ValuesYes/No Model YearsGuaranteed Ride Home and Ride Match Peak Hour Trips (%)Telework and Flexible Work Schedules Populations (modeled, change)Accessibility (transit, bike, sidewalks) Vehicle OccupancyAmenities (shopping, other within ¼ mile) Mode SharesProgram subsidies Trip LengthsProgram marketing/management Access Times Travel Times Parking Costs Trip Costs Retail density Transit station distance Vehicle ownership Population density Parking charges

7 icfi.com | Data Type DescriptionData Elements Fields without default values available at the county scale Source (Vehicle) Type Population Vehicle Type VMT Road Type Distribution Local data, available from MOVES defaults when local data is unavailable Meteorological DataRamp Fraction Age DistributionFuel Supply/Formulation Month, Day, Hour VMT Fractions I/M (Inspection and Maintenance) Program Average Speed Distribution Alternative Vehicle and Fuel Technology (AVFT) Modeling decision elements, typically not requiring local data Domain/ScaleGeographic Bounds Calculation TypeVehicle Type Time AggregationRoad Type Calendar YearPollutants and Processes Evaluation MonthStrategies Type of DayActivity Evaluation HourEmissions Detail MOVES Data Needs

8 icfi.com | In partnership with State, regional, and local planning agencies Five scenarios each: –Future business-as-usual (the current LRTP) –Four alternative scenarios TEAM case studies Pima Association of Governments (Tucson) Mid-America Regional Council (Kansas City) MassDOT (Boston)

9 icfi.com | ScenarioDescription Business as Usual2035 conditions with current levels of employer program, land use, HOV lanes, and transit Scenario 1: Expanded Healthy Modes Program Expand the statewide travel options program that partners with employers to provide information about commuting by alternate modes of transportation. Scenario 2: Scenario 1 + Land UseIncrease residential density and mixed use land uses in selected areas. Scenario 3: Scenario 2 + HOV LanesAdd HOV lanes. Scenario 4: Scenario 3 + Expanded TransitExpand transit network and improve transit infrastructure. MassDOT Scenarios

10 icfi.com | MassDOT Results Scenario 1: Expanded Healthy Modes Program Scenario 2: Scenario 1 + Land Use Scenario 3: Scenario 2 + HOV Lanes Scenario 4: Scenario 3 + Expanded Transit

11 icfi.com | ScenarioDescription Business as Usual 2040 conditions with current levels of employer program, land use, HOV lanes, and transit Scenario 1: Expanded TDM Expand access to telework and flexwork programs, Guaranteed Ride Home and ridematching services. Scenario 2: Scenario 1 + Enhanced Transit Improve transit and expand transit pass program. Scenario 3: Scenario 2 + Land Use Increase residential density and mixed use land uses for entire regional population. Scenario 4: Scenario 3 + PricingImplement mileage pricing and increase and expand coverage of parking costs. MARC Scenarios

12 icfi.com | MARC Results Scenario 1: Expanded TDM Scenario 2: Scenario 1 + Enhanced Transit Scenario 3: Scenario 2 + Land Use Scenario 4: Scenario 3 + Pricing

13 icfi.com | ScenarioDescription Business as Usual2040 conditions with current levels of transit pass, employer-based incentives, BRT coverage, and parking pricing Scenario 1: SunTran All Access PassBundle ‘free’ transit pass with tuition for faculty, staff, and students at two local universities Scenario 2: Expanded Employer-based Incentives Increase subsidies by $10-$50 per mode. Scenario 3: BRT on 2 CorridorsBRT on Oracle Rd and Broadway Blvd. Scenario 4: Parking Pricing in Downtown- University Corridor Double parking prices and expand number of priced spaces. PAG Scenarios

14 icfi.com | Scenario Light-Duty VMT GHGs (CO2 equivalent) PM2.5NOxVOC Scenario 1: SunTran All Access Pass-0.99%-0.97%-0.94%-0.86%-0.77% Scenario 2: Expanded Employer- based Incentives -0.43% -0.42%-0.40%-0.44% Scenario 3: BRT on 2 Corridors-0.02% Scenario 4: Parking Pricing in Downtown-University Corridor -0.26%-0.25% -0.24%-0.26% PAG Results Scenario Light-Duty VMT GHGs (CO2 equivalent) PM2.5NOxVOC Land use changes plus PAG scenarios %-1.87%-1.69%-1.43%-0.71% Scenario 1: SunTran All Access Pass Scenario 2: Expanded Employer- based Incentives Scenario 3: BRT on 2 Corridors Scenario 4: Parking Pricing in Downtown- University Corridor EPA Scenario: Scenarios Land Use

15 icfi.com | TEAM works as a regional sketch model: –Build support for strategies –Identify and prioritize strategies –Fine-tune strategies Applying TEAM requires some understanding of TRIMMS and underlying data and analysis methods TEAM works best in a collaborative scenario planning context Lessons Learned

16 icfi.com | Estimating Emission Reductions from Travel Efficiency Strategies Search ‘EPA Travel Efficiency Assessment Method’: Regional case study report: (January 2014) User guidance for TEAM: (December 2011) National-level report: (March 2011) Supplement to national report: (November 2011) EPA GHG MOVES Guidance: EPA State and Local Transportation Resources

17 icfi.com | Mark Simons, US EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality Frank Gallivan, ICF International For more information