The Potential of ARPA in Reducing Deforestation and Associated Carbon Emissions in the Brazilian Amazon Low Emissions Pathway to Emerging Economies and its Contribution towards Sustainable Development WWF Side Event UNFCCC- COP/MOP 13 10th December 2007 UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

1.Overview – the scale of emissions 2.The Brazilian Amazon 3.The ARPA Programme Financial and technical support to Amazon Protected Areas 50 million hectares 4.The analysis Objectives Methods Preliminary results 5. Conclusions and next steps This presentation UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

Share of CO 2 eq. emissions (2000) CAIT-WRI, 2007 UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

Global emissions: LULUCF (2000) UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS CAIT-WRI, 2007

Brazil - 4º. Larger Emitter (2000) Deforestation 62% Agriculture 22% Energy 16% WRI, 2007 UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

Brazilian Amazon 330 million hectares (ha) of remaining forest State boundaries UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

Brazilian Amazon State boundarie Lack of governance and contradictory policies Infra-structure development, including continental integration Agribusiness growth also over natural habitats Illegal and unsustainable logging ‘Land grabbing’ associated with social crimes UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

Protected Areas 48% of the 330 million ha remaining forest are located in protected areas = 23.9 billion tons of C (49% of the total) State boundaries Indigenous lands UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

ARPA - Amazon Region Protected Areas Programme Financial and technical support to (Brazilian) Amazon protected areas Objectives: –Create 37.5 million hectares (ha) of protected areas –Implement 12.5 million ha of protected areas Launched in 2002 by the Brazilian Government –implemented by the federal and state institutions –with support of GEF and World Bank, KfW and GTZ, WWF-Brasil (on behalf of WWF Network), FUNBIO, amongst others Total = 50 million ha UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

31,2 million ha 19% of Amazon protected areas State boundaries Protected Areas w/ ARPA Support Indigenous lands UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

Authors Britaldo Silveira Soares Filho Laura Dietzsch Paulo Moutinho Alerson Falieri Hermann Rodrigues The Potential of ARPA in Reducing Deforestation and Associated Carbon Emissions in the Brazilian Amazon The study has not been published yet, the data on this presentation should be consider as prelimanary results UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

Objective of this Study Evaluate the contribution of ARPA-Supported Protected Areas in lowering Brazilian carbon emissions Threats ARPA Areas Carbon Stocks Reduced Carbon Emissions How we did it? UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

Carbon Stock within ARPA Areas Saatchi et al., billion tons of C in the Amazon 4.5 billion tons of C in ARPA- supported protected areas State boundaries UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

Spatially explicit model Scenario Generating Model Simamazonia Modeling conservation in the Amazon basin Soares Filho et al., Nature, 2006

Level of Future Threat (2050) State boundaries UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

Reduced Emissions vs. Carbon Stocks Considering carbon and threats, protected areas located in deforestation frontier assume more importance Total for ARPA-supported protected areas Carbon stocks = 4.5 billion tons of C Reduced emissions = 1.8 billion tons of C (2050) Preliminary results UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

Simulating the potential of protected areas in reducing future deforestation and associated carbon emissions in BAU scenarios (until 2050) 7 billion tons of C 0.6 billion tons of C Preliminary results

BAU Scenarios and Carbon Emissions (2050) 2. BAU Scenario after massive creation of PA 3. BAU Scenario after massive creation of PA and 2008 ARPA expansion 1. BAU Scenario (Soares-Filho et al., 2006) Preliminary results UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

The preliminary results show the potential importance of protected areas and ARPA in reducing carbon emissions (in the Brazilian Amazon) Summarizing Reduced C emissions Approach / scenario 1.8 billion tonsAll ARPA areas (31,2 million ha) 1.15 billion tonsARPA areas created between 2003 and billion tonsIf 2008 ARPA areas expansion occurs Preliminary results UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

Next Steps Evaluate the historical effect of ARPA in the management of protected areas Study the direct and indirect reduction of emissions in many scenarios Analyse scenarios of protected areas expansions Indicate priorities for new protected areas (based on climate changes mitigation and adaptation, besides the current biological diversity guidance) UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

Protected Areas: Lessons Learned (Brazilian Amazon)  the most important tools for nature conservation  a significant base to the sustainable development but…  not sufficient without broader scale actions and policies  Basket approach  Sustainable community livelihoods  Sustainable forest management  Sustainable agriculture and cattle ranching  Sustainable infra-structure development  immediate impact to slow deforestation  take away the possibility of land speculation  establishment and consolidation of protected areas with local support is key for the long term conservation UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

UNFCCC Links ARPA contributes to long term broad polices and measures in reducing future deforestation and associated carbon emissions - SDPAMS National Programme –Technology transfer and South—South cooperation –Finance –Governance and participation UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

Thank you! WWF-Brasil IPAM UFMG UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS