Brazilian Second Round: Post- Electoral Analysis Wilson Center, Brazil Institute November 1, Washington DC

The Crystallization of the Brazilian Electorate

[ 3 ] Final Results  Crystallized Electorate TSE C Class increases by 30 million, from 34% to 49% of the Brazilian adult population PSDB  35% PT  46% Floaters  19%

[ 4 ] No Movment in the 2 nd Round Institutoanalise C Class increases by 30 million, from 34% to 49% of the Brazilian adult population XXXXX Credit

The Electoral Environment

[ 6 ] Explosion in “C Class”  Middling Class Ipsos Cetelem C Class increases by 30 million, from 34% to 49% of the Brazilian adult population XXXXX Credit

[ 7 ] Election about Brazilian’s consupltion and mobility conquests... XXXXX Credit

Dilma Next Steps

[ 9 ]  Lula First Year  average 80%  FHC First Year  Average 80%  Strong Economy and Positive Scenario Should keep Dilma’s Number up.  Less of honeymoon in Brazil Approval Ratings

Where does the PSDB/Opposition go from here?

[ 11 ]  What is the PSDB’s vision for Brazil?  Both PT and PSDB are trying to fill the same space: Center-Left  Ultimately, both parties are very class oriented in their electoral make-up Key Elite Issues

[ 12 ] PSDB versus PT Ipsos 2008

Voter Demands: Rise of the Quality of Life Agenda

[ 14 ] Rise of the Quality of Life Agenda: 2005 vs Middle Class Demand Profile Inflation is #1 issue in 1993

[ 15 ] Voter Agenda: Main Problems (September 2010) Social Class ABCDE Crime and Violence Jobs Healthcare Drug Trafficking Education Low Salaries Corruption

Elite Agenda: The Bottleneck Agenda

[ 17 ] Education is Key (2009) Elite Study 2009 Brasil: Jornalists, Politicians/Government, and Private Sector % Corruption Health Education Crime Government Incompetence Jobs/Unemployment Economic Development Lack of support of the Poor Constant Issues across polls  Education and Infrastructure

[ 18 ]  Consensus Issues   Bottlenecks  Infrastructure and Education  Impact on Macro-economic policies over the last 16 years  Huge inequality problems hurt Brazil globally  Size of State and Taxes  among private sector Key Elite Issues