Assessing Trade Development Needs and Integrating them into the Design of Development Strategies: Experiences from East and Southern Africa Symposium on Evaluation Identifying Indicators for Monitoring Aid for Trade WTO, Geneva September 2008 Mark Pearson RTFP Programme Director

Poverty Alleviation through Economic Growth Increased levels of Trade Market Access: -DFQFMA for LDCs -Improved Rules of Origin -Preference Margins -etc Removal of Production and Competitive Constraints: -Aid for Trade -Foreign Direct Investment -Regulatory Environment -etc Domestic Fiscal Policies Financial Policies

Aid for Trade Trade Policy and Regulation  Trade facilitation and regulation  TA/CB  RTAs/FTAs/CU Trade Development  Trade Facilitation  Investment Promotion  Trade Financing, … Building Productive Capacity  Expansion of productive base  Level of investment Trade Related Infrastructure  transit/transport  Energy  ICT Trade Related Adjustment  changes in structure of trade

What to Monitor and Evaluate at the Programme or Project Level? Sequencing: It is not enough to monitor spending, or rates of return or efficiency gains on individual projects – there is a need to monitor the sequencing of interventions.

Lack of rolling stock and poor management on TAZARA - delays in transport – One train load of copper cathods is valued at about US$10.5m (50 tonnes per wagon, US$7,000/t, 30 wagons in a train). Lost income at 8% pa interest is about US$16,000/week/train.

Container terminal congestion at Dar es Salaam. Improved efficiencies on the road/rail transport network will add to this bottleneck

SENA line from Moatize (estimated deposit of 2.4 billion tonnes of coal) to Beira upgraded to transport coal but Beira port needs dredging and line into Malawi not repaired

Improving customs procedures at Kasumbalesa ON ITS OWN will not reduce transport times and costs to an from Kolwezi – approximately 100 loaded trucks a day go south and 300 loaded trucks a day go north.

Start of journey Road rehabilitation – 50mm surface overlay – US$750,000/km Toll Bridge US$3m Road construction – US$1m/km OSBP One-Stop Border Post – buildings, computers, etc US$10m The absolute Importance of Correct Sequencing Ring Road – US$1m/km Port Upgrade – Dredging, New container terminal, management system. – US$30m Trade Facilitation and Trade Regulation Measures

Start of journey Road rehabilitation – 50mm surface overlay – US$750,000/km Toll Bridge US$3m OSBP One-Stop Border Post – buildings, computers, etc US$10m The absolute Importance of Correct Sequencing Ring Road – US$1m/km Port Upgrade – Dredging, New container terminal, management system. – US$30m ROAD NOT FIXED – NO WAY TO PORT Trade Facilitation and Trade Regulation Measures

What to Monitor and Evaluate at the Programme or Project Level? Inter-Relations: What effects improvements in one sector have on another – for example, deregulation of the road sector without an effective regulatory environment and equivalent deregulation on the railways will not lead to more efficient transport and transit networks in the medium to longer term. The regional axle load limit is one of the highest in the world (56t for 7 axle rig) and overloading makes road transporters more competitive and profitable. Road transport accounts for almost all transport – even bulk transport of concentrates, fuel, sulphuric acid, etc.

Aid Effectiveness Amounts disbursed by AfT category by Donor by procedure (are there adequate regional mechanisms in place for disbursement?) Trade Policy and Regulation -Effects of trade facilitation and trade regulation measures on reduced journey times and transport prices -Level of increases in TA/CB -Increases in implementation of FTAs, RTAs, customs unions. Trade Development Measuring changes in investment promotion, trade financing, export business support services, institutional support to exporters. Building Productive Capacity -Changes in the productive base of the economy – broadening of production. -Levels of investment Trade Related Infrastructure -Sequencing of trade related infrastructure interventions -Rates of return on investments in transit/transport corridor infrastructure upgrades, energy infrastructure, ICT, etc Trade Related Adjustment - Changes in the structure of trade – measurement of diversification - Changes in levels of Trade in Services Programme-level Monitoring and Evaluation

Way Forward: -Identification of projects and programmes that are necessary to make the N-S corridor more efficient with the aim of reducing costs and so allowing producers to be more efficient. -Calculate costs of projects and returns on investment. -Prepare a funding strategy for each project and programme (ring-fence using SPVs) so that they can be implemented in a sequenced manner. -Hold a “Aid for Trade” session in first quarter of 2009 to get funding of each project/programme. -Roll out to other corridors.

Thank You Regional Trade Facilitation Programme (DFID) PO Box 317 Persequor Park Pretoria 0020 South Africa