Global Financial Imbalances: The Future Impact of Asian and Middle East Surpluses Karen Johnson April 24, 2006.

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Global Financial Imbalances: The Future Impact of Asian and Middle East Surpluses Karen Johnson April 24, 2006

Exchange Rates: Chinese RMB Source: FRB weights

Exchange Rates: Korean Won Source: FRB weights

Exchange Rates: Japanese Yen Source: FRB weights

Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Source: IMF WEO

Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Source: IMF WEO *Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan

Global Oil Prices (WTI) Source: Commodity Research Bureau

Revenue Flows to Fuel Exporters Source: IMF WEO

Foreign Exchange Reserves Source: IMF *Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong

Foreign Exchange Reserves: Aggregate of Fuel Exporters Source: IMF *No data available for Turkmenistan, Iran, Iraq, or Syria **2005 data not yet available for Angola, Rep. of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Sudan, Bahrain, UAE, or Yemen

Portfolio Inflows to the United States Source: Treasury International Capital System ( *Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong **Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Inflation: Consumer Prices Source: IMF WEO

Gross Issuance of Chinese Sterilization Bonds Source: Bloomberg

Distortions Implicit subsidy to exports Distort allocation of domestic fixed investment Continue to attract capital inflow

Downside of Reserve Accumulation Complications posed for monetary policy Distortions on bank behavior Limits on financial sector development Price signals altered by the exchange rate