Remarks on a Political Modeling Strategy for Social Systems Detlef Sprinz PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

2 Overview Goals Options Conclusions

3 Goals Provide a (Set of) Tool(s) to –provide a framework for the analysis of non- trivial decisions –among multiple actors –on various levels of analysis or aggregation –to replicate past decisions and –explore the likely outcomes of major decisions for the future

4 Options Basic Options –case study –statistical analysis –(cooperative and non-cooperative) game theory –optimization tools (incl. CBA) –simulation form of quasi-experimentation

5 Options Example: Political Simulation Model of Bueno de Mesquita Assumptions –Rationality of Actors competing actors maximize expected utility under limited time horizon “voting” on issues no level of analysis problem –Ability to Provide Input Data

6 Options Goal: Decision-Making –offers and counteroffers –“produce” winning coalitions (if possible) or “fabricate” majorities Outcome of Vote –determined by median voter theorem veto player –fall back: status quo

7 Options Inputs by Player –general power or influence (resources) of each actor –stated policy position –salience (priority) of each actors Simulation Terminates When –expected benefits of further negotiations < expected benefits of further negotiations –discounting the outcomes over time

8 Options Advantage of BdM Policy Forecaster –utilizes case experience similar to case study analyst in a fully structured way –provides forecasts and simple dynamic of decision-Making –rigorous tool rather than guesstimate accuracy is imperfect (ca. 90% correct predictions) –permits sensitivity analyses

9 Options Some Challenges & Limitations –lack of simultaneously including related agenda items (problem of uni-dimensional political space) –high-quality data inputs not easily available even for many European countries

10 Options How to Use it for Social Systems I –context of climate change –three rounds of simulations Germany European Union global –replications of some decisions where we know the outcome –predictions about some decisions where we do not yet know the outcome (e.g., post-Kyoto)

11 Options How to Use it for Social Systems II –beyond climate change –in context of European Climate Forum with select target groups (self-selected) replication short-term forecasting (easy “verification”) & learning longer-term forecasts

12 Conclusions A Proposed Sequence of Activities –build a backbone at PIK incl. endowment –review other options in the family of simulation models –outreach to a limited set of relevant inter/national institutions –engage a small set of internationally renowned scholars Bueno de Mesquita, Jacobson et al. Underdal, CICERO et al.