Katherine Leswing American University School of International Service

 Research Question:  Does the literacy rate in eastern Turkish provinces impact the number of terrorist attacks provinces experience, controlling for unemployment rate, access to indoor plumbing, marital status, and high school education completion?  Research Hypotheses:  H 0 : There is no relationship between literacy rates and number of terrorist attacks.  H 1 : Provinces with lower literacy rates experience more terrorist attacks.  H 2 : Provinces with higher literacy rates experience more terrorist attacks.

A Review of Existing Literature  “The Quality of Terror” Ethan Bueno de Mesquita (2005)  Findings: Terrorist organizations screen their recruits to be higher educated, thus one cannot accurately determine if education and socioeconomic are correlated with terrorism.  “Is Terrorism ‘The Poor Man’s Patent’? Evaluating the Connection between Education, Poverty, and Political Violence” Horne & Bloom (2009)  Findings: Although terrorist recruits may be higher educated and less poor than the population who supports terror, the conclusion cannot be drawn that higher socioeconomic and education levels are positively related to the occurrence of terrorism. GAPS IN THE EXISTING LITERATURE: Theoretical gaps: Little distinction between likelihood of individuals participating in terrorism and the emergence of a terrorist group. Empirical gaps: More data analysis is needed of the emergence of terrorist groups worldwide and the socioeconomic and education backgrounds from which they emerge.

Data  Unit of analysis: Provinces in Turkey (34 eastern-most provinces)  Sources:  Terrorism Data: National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START, Dept. of Homeland Security, UMD): Global Terrorism Database  Population Data: Turkish Statistical Institute (national census data)  Reliability:  Data was found for all 34 provinces  Both sources are government-sponsored organizations  Gap: Of 2820 terrorist attacks in Turkey from , the exact location of 257 incidences could not be pinpointed.  Dependent Variable (Interval-ratio level of measurement) :  Number of total terrorist attacks by province;  Independent Variables (all Interval-ratio level of measurement):  Literacy rate (15+, 2011), unemployment rate (2000), marriage rate (15+, 2011), dwellings with an indoor toilet (%, 2011), high school completion (%, 2011)

Descriptive Statistics Dependent Variable: Terrorist Attacks  With a mean of and a median of 18, the central tendency is not credible.  There is a higher frequency of higher numbers of terrorist attacks, so the central tendency is skewed to the right.  To remedy this, we take the log of the dependent variable. terrorlitrunemprmrate toiletin_p hsed_p N34 Mean p IQR Min Max CV SD By transforming the dependent variable the central tendency is now log normal and we can run a regression of our variables. One observation is lost in this transformation; the log could not be taken of Bayburt province with 0 terrorist attacks.

Bivariate analysis Dependent Variable: Log of Terrorist Attacks Pearson’s r Significance NSlopeInterpretation litr Statistically significant. Reject the H 0. lterror and litr are moderately negatively correlated. unempr Statistically significant. lterror and litr are weakly positively correlated. mrate Statistically insignificant. toiletin_p Statistically insignificant. tsed_p Statistically insignificant.

Multivariate Regression Analysis Dependent Variable: Log of Terrorist Attacks Literacy rate and number of terrorist incidents are correlated; p = 0.00 The correlation is negative; when literacy rate decreases, there are more terrorist attacks (coefficient = ). The adj. R 2 from Model One shows that 43% of the relationship between number of terrorist attacks and literacy rate can be explained. Colinearity between literacy and unemployment. Significance in parentheses. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.00 Interpretation:

Multivariate Regression Analysis Dependent Variable: Log of Terrorist Incidences Clear negative linear correlation between incidence of terrorist attack and literacy rate by province. Some outliers but the trend indicates that higher literacy rate results in less terrorism. Negative linear correlation between incidence of terrorist attack and literacy rate. Positive linear correlation between incidence of terrorist attack and unemployment rate. Negative linear correlation between literacy rate and unemployment rate. Interpretation of Graph Interpretation of Matrix

Findings  Accept H 1 Provinces with lower literacy rates experience more terrorist attacks. Reject H 0 and H 2  There is a significant negative correlation between literacy rates in eastern Turkish provinces and the number of terrorist attacks that occur there.  There is also a statistically significant positive correlation between unemployment rate by province and the incidence of. Terrorism  These findings suggest that policies that improve the quality and access to education, as well as reduce unemployment, in eastern Turkey will reduce the risk of terrorist attacks occurring. Policy Implications

Number of Terrorist Attacks by Province Turkey, Legend: Number of Terrorist Attacks Source: National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), University of Maryland, Global Terrorism Database, 2011

Number of Terrorist Attacks by Province Turkey, Legend: Number of Terrorist Attacks Source: National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), University of Maryland, Global Terrorism Database, 2011

Unemployment Rate By Province Turkey, 2000 Legend: Unemployment Rate 0 – 5 % 6 – 10% 11 – 15 % 16 – 20 % 21 – 25 % Source: Turkish Statistical Institute, Turkish National Census Data, 2000

Literacy Rate By Province Turkey, 2011 Legend Literacy Rate < 87 % 87 – 90% 90.1 – 95 % 95.1 – 98 % 98.1 – 100 % Legend: Literacy Rate Source: Turkish Statistical Institute, 2011, Address-Based Population Data Set Source: Turkish Statistical Institute, Address-Based Population Data Set, 2011

Sources  Bloom, M. M. and Horne, C. D., (2009). “Is Terrorism the “Poor Man's Patent’?: Evaluating the Causal Connection between Education, Poverty, and Political Violence" ISA's 50th Annual Convention: Exploring the Past, Anticipating the Future. New York, NY. Retrieved from website:  Bueno de Mesquita, E., (2005). “The Quality of Terror.” American Journal of Political Science,49(3) p  Turkish Statistical Institute, (2011). Address based population registration system results. Retrieved from website:  Turkish Statistical Institute, (2000). General population census (genel nüfus sayımı). Retrieved from website:  Global Terrorism Database, (2012). Compiled by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, a Center of Excellence of the US Department of Homeland Security at the University of Maryland. College Park, MD. Retrieved from website: