Effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystem & associated social & economic considerations in the Yakima River Basin. Alec G. Maule, Supervisory Research Physiologist USGS, WFRC, Columbia River Research Laboratory Cook, Washington

Alec Maule – Project Manager DeWayne Cecil – Chief Science Applications, Climate Change Mark Mastin & Frank Voss (WaWSC) - Physical models Jim Hatten & Tom Batt – Habitat criteria, GIS, DSS Matt Mesa & Jill Hardiman – Bioenergetics Pat Connolly & Russ Perry – Fish pop analyses, Cohort survival Jessica Montag (Ft Collins, CO) — Sociologist Lynne Koontz (Ft Collins, CO) – Economist Chris Lynch, (BOR-Yakima) - Water management (RiverWare) David Graves — Tributary Water Temps Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission Habitat Physical Population Community Bioenergetics Linking models to predict CC effects: Yakima River Basin Social & Economic analyses

Yakima River Eastern Washington State 6200 mi² 100 in / yr 6 in / yr

Change Scenarios Early Base Mid Watershed Model RiverWare Temperature Model Hydrodynamic Model GIS Modeling Habitat maps Habitat DSS Climate Change in the Yakima Bovee et al Mastin 2008 Bureau of Reclamation

Change Scenarios Early Base Mid Watershed Model RiverWare Temperature Models Hydrodynamic Model GIS Modeling Habitat maps Habitat DSS Bioenergetics Model Growth, Development Migration, Reproduction Cohort Survival Model (Population) Interactions (Community) Global Climate Change Decision Support System Social & Economic Analyses

Karen Jenni & Tim Nieman, DA Consultants Habitat Physical Population Community Bioenergetics Decision Analysis (DA) Social & Economic Analyses DA Stakeholders Workshop – July 2009; 20+ attendees Results: Shifted species of concern -- steelhead Added temp modeling tributaries & lower river Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission Developed a conceptual model of Yakima Basin Irrigation Districts Local elected officials Fed, State & Tribal F &W Fed & State Water Managers

Stakeholders’ Workshop Conceptual Model

Modeling CC in the Yakima River Basin

Sunnyside Diversion Dam Gap Wapato Changes in Habitat Area by Reach

Baseline & Future Hydrographs GapWapato Baseflow Coho salmon fry rearing

Baseline vs. Future Habitat Estimates Gap Wapato Coho Fry Habitat (hectares) Current Flows – decreasing; Lower in Wapato, Higher in Gap Habitat based on water velocity and depth per Bovee et al. (2008)

Sensitivity Analysis Decrease in flows; flow higher in Gap, lower in Wapato GapWapato Current Regulation Current Regulation “Flip-Flop” Water Flows “Flip-Flop” Water Flows Different Geomorphology

Habitat Physical Population Community Bioenergetics Social & Economic Analyses 1.Intro, Stakeholders’ workshop and conceptual model 2.Mainstem temperature modeling 3.Tributary temperature modeling 4.Temperature and bioenergetics of juvenile steelhead and Chinook salmon 5.Hydrograph and available species- & life-stage-specific habitat 6.Estimating the effects of CC on the social & economic life of the Yakama Tribe Chapters

Where a River Takes You: Climate Change Effects on Social Values of Tribal Aquatic Systems Jessica M Montag, Ph.D. Ft Collins Science Center Katie Swan, Intern Yakama Nation

Tribal Well-Being

Questions?

Modeling CC in the Yakima River Basin