Choices, Choices, Choices: Resolving Smart Grid Choice Overload With Business Case Models Jerry Jackson, Ph.D. Leader and Research Director Smart Grid.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Demand Response: The Challenges of Integration in a Total Resource Plan Demand Response: The Challenges of Integration in a Total Resource Plan Howard.
Advertisements

DISPUTES & INVESTIGATIONS ECONOMICS FINANCIAL ADVISORY MANAGEMENT CONSULTING Early Lessons Learned from DOE-EPRI Framework Experience Melissa Chan MA DPU.
Introduction Build and impact metric data provided by the SGIG recipients convey the type and extent of technology deployment, as well as its effect on.
BG&E’s PeakRewards SM Demand Response Program Successful Approaches for Engaging Customers August 20, 2014.
Document number Finding Financial Solutions & Models for Microgrids Maryland Clean Energy Summit Panel Wednesday, October 16, 2013.
| March 26, 2013 National Summit on Integrating Energy Efficiency & Smart Grid HEMS and Smart Meter Integration.
AMI & Grid Data Analytics & Analysis Management Platform Page  1 What does this platform offer? Our tool is a next generation grid management software.
What we found Benefits n Annual benefits = 9% to 16% of system cost n Most (60% - 70%) come from meter reader staff reductions. n Considerable stakeholder.
ANALYTICS: BRINGING VALUE TO THE UTILITIES IN MITIGATING ENERGY LOSSES José-Manuel LOPEZ Istanbul, May 9, 2014.
US Department of Energy Smart Grid Computational Tool (SGCT) Overview Note: View presentation in Slide Show mode for best results
6 - 1 Lecture 4 Analysis Using Spreadsheets. Five Categories of Spreadsheet Analysis Base-case analysis What-if analysis Breakeven analysis Optimization.
[Title of meeting] [Name of sponsor] [Date] For guidance on working with PowerPoint and reformatting slides, click on Help, then Microsoft PowerPoint Help,
Workshop for Proposed EPIC Triennial Plans Investor Owned Utility Programs July 31, 2014.
Business Performance Management (BPM)
Iterative development and The Unified process
Delivery Methodology.
Managing Projects
1 Developing an Investment Strategy with the Smart Grid Investment Model TM Jerry Jackson, Ph.D., Leader and Research Director Smart Grid Research Consortium,
1 Analysys Mason undertook an international programme of customer satisfaction research for a telecoms billing system vendor  A billing systems vendor.
Stephane Larocque – Consulting Practice Leader, Impact Infrastructure A DECISION MAKING FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT 1 ST INTERNATIONAL.
1 SmartMeter™ Delivering Customer Benefits Jana Corey Director, Policy Planning Integrated Demand-side Management Pacific Gas and Electric Company.
1 Module 4: Designing Performance Indicators for Environmental Compliance and Enforcement Programs.
INFO425: Systems Design INFORMATION X Finalizing Scope (functions/level of automation)  Finalizing scope in terms of functions and level of.
Don Von Dollen Senior Program Manager, Data Integration & Communications Grid Interop December 4, 2012 A Utility Standards and Technology Adoption Framework.
Regional Technical Forum End-use Load Shape Business Case Project Project Initiation Meeting Portland, OR March 5, 2012.
Practical analysis and valuation of heterogeneous telecom services Case-based analysis.
SAN MATEO COUNTY CCA TECHNICAL STUDY: OVERVIEW Community Choice Energy Advisory Committee June 25 th,2015.
© 2009 IBM Corporation Smart Grid Research Consortium Customer Operations Transformation Global E&U Industry January 2011.
Applications and Benefits of Energy Storage Maui, Hawaii June 16, 2010 Garth P. Corey, Consultant Sandia National Laboratories Sandia is a multiprogram.
Common Information Model and EPRI Smart Grid Research
Smart Grid - Developments and Implementations Prof. Gady Golan – HIT, Israel Dr. Yuval Beck – HIT, Israel , Electricity 2012, Eilat.
"Sustainability: Challenge or opportunity? How can Baldrige help?" Mike Browder Andy Czuchry.
State of Maine NASACT Presentation “Using the Business Case to Guide a Transformation Procurement” 1 Using the Business Case to Guide a Transformation.
Seattle City Light – AMI Business Case Results
MD Digital Government Summit, June 26, Maryland Project Management Oversight & System Development Life Cycle (SDLC) Robert Krauss MD Digital Government.
Communicating a Smarter Future Keynote at Network th annual distribution network strategy conference 16 February 2012 Sandy Sheard Deputy Director.
Sharing Session on Organizational Performance Jakarta, 3 September 2013.
“Demand Response: Completing the Link Between Wholesale and Retail Pricing” Paul Crumrine Director, Regulatory Strategies & Services Institute for Regulatory.
Strategic Planning for DSM in a Community-owned Utility Presented by Shu-Sun Kwan & Ed Arguello Colorado Springs Utilities 2005 APPA Engineering & Operations.
Ch 4 - Learning Objectives Scope Management You should be able to: n Discuss the relationship between scope and project failure n Describe how strategic.
1 Distribution Efficiency Conservation Voltage Regulation (CVR) Jillianne Welker 4/21/2009.
Slide 1 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N NEET Work Group 6 Update: BPA Demand Response April 21 st Karen Meadows Pam Sporborg.
Assessing the influence on processes when evolving the software architecture By Larsson S, Wall A, Wallin P Parul Patel.
Experience you can trust. Phase 1: Cataloguing Available End-Use and Efficiency Load Data September 15, 2009 End-Use Load Data Update Project.
Evaluating the Business Case for Smart Grid Investments Jerry Jackson, Ph.D., Leader and Research Director Smart Grid Research Consortium, 37 N. Orange.
A Strawman for Discussion by Dottie Stockstill & Greg Ramon Special ERCOT Board Meeting June 24, 2003.
Professional Certificate in Electoral Processes Understanding and Demonstrating Assessment Criteria Facilitator: Tony Cash.
CEC 08-DR-1 Efficiency Committee Workshop 3/3/08.
June 17, 2009 Michael W. Howard, Ph.D. Sr. Vice President The Interoperable Smart Grid Evolving.
Feasibility Study.
Kathy Corbiere Service Delivery and Performance Commission
Modelling the Process and Life Cycle. The Meaning of Process A process: a series of steps involving activities, constrains, and resources that produce.
Fundamentals of Governance: Parliament and Government Understanding and Demonstrating Assessment Criteria Facilitator: Tony Cash.
Future Expectations of TEPPC: Products, Users, and Values Maury Galbraith Presentation to TEPPC Review Task Force January 11,
PROPRIETARY  2003 Data Research Analysis & Consultancy Solutions All Rights Reserved. This is achieved by: Improving availability / reducing stock outs.
Continual Service Improvement Methods & Techniques.
Impact Research 1 Enabling Decision Making Through Business Intelligence: Preview of Report.
1 1 DISTRIBUTION EFFICIENCY INITIATIVE (DEI) Benefits on Both Sides of the Meter RTF MEETING February 5, 2008.
CEC Public Workshop Order Instituting Informational and Rulemaking Proceeding (08-DR-01) March 3, 2008.
Metering Americas April 24, 2006 Advanced Metering.
UM 1751 Energy Storage Workshop #3 May 9, UM 1751 Workshop #3 Topics Most viable and beneficial applications (HB 2193 time frame: ) Emerging.
Institutional Support Vladimir Koritarov Argonne National Laboratory April 2016.
TRMAC Meeting April 14, 2015 TRM EUI Measure Development Project.
RPA – Robotic Process Automation
IS&T Project Reviews September 9, Project Review Overview Facilitative approach that actively engages a number of key project staff and senior IS&T.
Fort Stanwix National Monument Energy Audit Contract
CIM Modeling for E&U - (Short Version)
Analysis Using Spreadsheets
Impact of Dynamic Pricing on AMR
OU BATTLECARD: Oracle Utilities Learning Subscription
Presentation transcript:

Choices, Choices, Choices: Resolving Smart Grid Choice Overload With Business Case Models Jerry Jackson, Ph.D. Leader and Research Director Smart Grid Research Consortium, LLC 37 N. Orange Avenue, Suite 500 Orlando, FL (cell) Municipal Smart Grid Summit June 6, 2012

2 Choice Overload is All Around Us Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

3 Source: NIST Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

4 Marketing and Psychology Research Provides Interesting Insights on Choice Overload Jam problem Decision-making process Decision-maker satisfaction Marketing applications Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

5 Implications for: Utilities Vendors Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

6 Topics Consortium’s approach to SG choice overload Smart Grid Investment Model Example application Recommendations Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

7 The SGRC Was Developed to Address Choice Overload and Other SG Evaluation Issues Formed at Texas A&M University to investigate quantitative business case issues Jan 2010Jan 2011 Dec 2011 Transitioned to an independent research organization Completed Smart Grid Investment Model development Feb 2012 Unbundled model software and support services Coops, Munis, Public Utilities Vetted with 15 utility applications Available to 1.All utilities 2.Vendors 3.Consulting firms 4.Others Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

8 The Scope of Today’s Attractive SG Investments Makes Smart Grid Business Case Extremely Complex AMI/Smart Meters Customer Engagement Distribution Automation Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

9 SGIM Applies Choice Overload Principles toTransform This Complexity Into Manageable Investment Choices Simplified hierarchical selections Structured knowledge base Information discovery Expertise development Relevancy: utility-specific detail/implementation Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

10 SGIM Hierarchical Schematic Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

11 Hierarchical User Interface Three Program Areas Two General C/B Areas Four Summary Investment Stats Discounted Net Benefit Chart 1 2a 3 2b Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

12 Programs Are Turned On and Off Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

13 Investment Summaries Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

14 Chart Representations Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

15 Drill-Down Dashboard Visualizations and C/B Tables Support Information Discovery Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

16 Drill Down to System load Impacts

17 Structured Knowledge Base Supports Information Discovery and Expertise Development Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

18 Technologies and Programs Can be Evaluated Individually or in Combination AMI /Smart Meters AMI /SM + CE (DLC + PCT) CVR ALL Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

19 Assumptions Behind Results Can Be Evaluated; Stand-Alone PCTs Outcomes Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

20 Focus and Timing Can Be Evaluated Accelerated customer engagement, and accelerated, expanded CVR Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

21 Five Steps Are Applied to Transform Analysis Results into a Comprehensive Investment Strategy 1. Prioritize General Investment Areas 2. Assess Specific Technologies & Programs 3. Evaluate and Refine Parameters 4. Consider Alternative Scenarios 5. Update Parameters and Initiate Next Analysis Cycle Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

22 “Composite Utility” Case Study Analysis Provides An Example Current AMR, no CVR or customer engagement Utility executives’ questions oWhich SG investment areas and specific investments are most attractive? oWhat is the business case for the best investments oHow do uncertainties impact results (e.g., increases in wholesale power costs) Utility priorities oKeep up with industry (not the first and not the last) oProvide customer benefits relative to surrounding utilities oKeep costs as low as possible Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

23 The SGIM Implementation Process Utility provides data oMonthly customer class billing data o8760 system load data oAny available utility customer information oGeneral info on distribution system Consortium Staff Implement the Smart Grid Investment Model oCustomers by customer class, kWh sales, peak demand oMonthly customer class, end-use hourly load impact model oUtility costs Model delivered for utility application, or oOnline training session Model applied by Consortium staff in turnkey analysis oModel delivered with training Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

24 First Select Individual Options: Three Program Areas Two General C/B Areas Four Summary Investment Stats Discounted Net Benefit Chart 1 2a 3 2b Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

25 AMI/Smart Meters Unattractive investment Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

26 Why ? Benefits are Limited Drill Down Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

27 Add Customer Engagement: AMI + Direct Load Control (WHDLC)+ Prog Communicating Thermostat (PCT) Better, but not a great investment Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

28 Stand-Alone WHDLC + PCT Greater per unit cost but still an attractive investment option Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

29 DA Category: Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) 20% of highest value substations Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

30 CVR + Stand Alone WHDLC + PCT 20% Customers with elec Wh on DLC Wh and PCT plus 20% of highest value substations on CVR Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

31 What If: AMI + Customer Engagement With Increased Wholesale Prices AMI plus WH DLC and PCT along with 40% increase in wholesale prices still provide modest returns Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

32 What If: Increased Wholesale Prices Also Improve CVR + Stand Alone WHDLC +PCT Investment Stand-Alone WH DLC and PCT along with 20 & 40% increase in wholesale prices provides substantial returns Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

33 Consider CVR Risk: -20%, -30% of Load Impact - 30% - 20% Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

34 Consider WHDLC, PCT Risk: -30%, -50% of Load Impacts - 30% - 50% Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

35 Conclusions at This Point Reject AMI/Smart meter investments at this time Identified CVR and stand-alone WH DLC and PCT as potentially attractive individual options Relatively little risk with CVR initiative Potential risk with WH DLC and PCT programs Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

36 Preliminary Strategy Develop preliminary plan for CVR applications oTarget highest value first oRefine cost/benefit data with early results oContinue financial analysis on a substation/feeder level basis Conduct pilot program with stand-alone WH DLC + PCTs Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

37 Next Steps Begin compiling substation/feeder level information to support CVR implementation strategy Develop additional internal information on relevant technology/program areas Form utility task force/management plan and action items Identify project management model Vendor RFQs, RFIs, RFPs …. Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

38 Actual Applications Include Additional Items and Analysis Water, natural gas, emergency, etc systems Distribution automation (auto reconfiguration, FDIR Show) Customer valuations of reliability Various levels of deployment oCVR oDA Various levels of deployment and incentives oWH DLC oPCTs oPricing WH DLC, PCTs, pricing, etc with C&I customers Program timing Optional additional technology detail (DER, storage, HEV, etc.) Feeder-level investment strategy development Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

39 Extended Distribution System Information Supports Detailed Substation/Feeder Level Analysis Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

40 Business Case Analysis Recommendations Recognize importance of: oUtility-specific detail oUtility-specific load impact modeling and analysis oSystem-wide evaluation Apply a quantitative framework oExplicit representation of important costs and benefits over time oSupport what-if questions for all important analysis parameters oProvide replication and documentation Develop clear, simple financial and other evaluation criteria Include sufficient detail to integrate detailed engineering, operations and management inputs Evaluate many scenarios to address all important what-if questions Smart Grid Research Consortium June 6, 2012

41 Take-Away: Smart Grid Choice Overload Can Be Resolved With a Quantitative Business Case Model For additional information: Jerry Jackson, Ph.D. Leader and Research Director Smart Grid Research Consortium, LLC 37 N. Orange Avenue, Suite 500 Orlando, FL (cell)