The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in Ethiopia EIAR Addis Ababa December 4, 2014

IFPRI I. Country program, called the Ethiopia Strategy Support Program (ESSP) II. Impact evaluations of large investment programs (PSNP, AGP, Feed-the-Future,…); linked with ESSP III. IFPRI’s activities in support of the Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA) IV. Other activities (HABP, MFS (Dutch project), Alive and Thrive, Africa Rising, etc.) Page 2

I. Ethiopia Strategy Support Program (ESSP) Joint project of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI) I. Research: To generate evidence-based and applied policy research to fill key knowledge gaps II. Capacity building: To strengthen the capacity of Ethiopian policy research institutions through targeted training programs and collaborative engagements III. Outreach: To build a stronger integrated knowledge support system to underpin food policy analysis Page 3

I. ESSP 1. Agricultural productivity, technology adoption, and agricultural transformation a. Mechanization and its potential in Ethiopia b. Agricultural productivity and technical change c. Determinants of fertilizer and modern input use d. Bio-fortification and its potential in Ethiopia Harvest Plus-led project. Page 4

I. ESSP 2. Agricultural markets, value chains, and agro- industry a. Teff value chain 1/ Determinants of teff productivity 2/ Agronomy of teff 3/ Teff marketing 4/ Health and nutritional benefits of teff 5/ Impact of improved teff productivity on Ethiopia’s economy 6/ Teff consumption patterns 7/ Policy suggestions to improve the sector’s performance Page 5

I. ESSP b. Coffee value chain Did large surveys in the beginning of Topics covered: 1. Coffee productivity 2. Pricing in the global coffee value chain 3. Value addition and the impact of wet mills 4. Who benefits from Voluntary Sustainability Standards? 5. Dynamics in the coffee value chain 6. ECX and the coffee value chain 7. Structure and performance of export markets 8. Required policies for improved coffee sector performance Page 6

I. ESSP 3. Risk, insurance, and investment a. Analysis of the impact of weather insurance b. Impact of the PSNP on household wealth dynamics and poverty c. Effects of weather shocks on child cognitive development 4. Land and water management a. Land certification, productivity and investment b. Watershed modeling Page 7

I. ESSP 5. Poverty and safety nets a. Impact of the PSNP on child outcome and nutritional indicators b. Poverty dynamics c. General economy effects of the PSNP d. Agricultural production and children’s diets 6. Rural transformation and non-crop income a.Rural roads and their impact b.Livestock income, markets and the leather industry c. Off-farm income in rural areas Page 8

I. ESSP 7. Economic analysis in support of the new GTP a.Analysis of future potential drivers for growth and structural change; development of scenarios for the new GTP. b.Use CGEs to model role of employment shifts; tax/fiscal scenarios; expansion of role of international trade; and changes in macro-structure c.Further analysis for GTP of particular issues such as: 1/ poverty analysis; 2/ consideration of labor markets; 3/ tax/fiscal policy changes. Page 9

II. Impact evaluations -AGP impact evaluation Baseline in 2011; 1 st impact survey in PSNP impact evaluation Baseline in 2006; 5 st impact survey planned in 2014; - Feed the Future (FtF) impact evaluation Baseline in 2013; 1 st impact survey in Pastoralist project impact evaluation First survey planned in 2015 Page 10

III. Support to the Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA) a. Seed Sector b. Fertilizer value chain c. Cooperatives d. Soil health/fertility management e. Impact analysis of wheat initiative f. Extension and research g. Output markets (maize, wheat, barley) Page 11

IV. Other themes  Household Asset Building Program (HABP) – Eastern and Southern Africa Office (ESAO) project  MFS II Dutch Project – ESAO project  Africa Rising  Alive and Thrive Page 12

Potential for future support and collaboration 1.Number of issues where we collaborate with EIAR -Seed sector -Mechanization -Agronomy of teff -Harvest Plus 2. Opportunities -Understanding the current status of intensification of agriculture in Ethiopia More in-depth analysis of the with large-scale household surveys collected under AGP and FTF Page 13

Potential for future support and collaboration 2. Opportunities -Farm-level economic analysis and climate change simulations Study samples of typical Ethiopian farming households and undertake economic analysis and how climate shocks will affect them -Economy-wide modeling How will climate change affect Ethiopia’s economy and what will be impact of mitigating policies -Impact analysis of new technologies and policy change Impact analysis at the farm level by using RCT and/or analysis of impacts of policy changes; to be defined Page 14