The Long Road to Recovery Matthew N. Murray, Ph.D. July 1, 2009.

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Presentation transcript:

The Long Road to Recovery Matthew N. Murray, Ph.D. July 1, 2009

July 2009 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville2 Deep Recession-Years to Regain Lost Ground -Recession will be the longest since the Great Depression -Mixed signals now emerging, indication of a possible bottom to current cycle -Recession might be deemed over in 3 rd or 4 th quarter -Very strong growth rates may then take place because economic activity is at such depressed levels -But levels of economic activity will not be restored for several years—jobs, home starts, car sales, tax revenue

July 2009 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville3 Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc. Real GDP: 2005 to 2012

July 2009 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville4 U.S. Residential Fixed Investment and Nonresidential Fixed Investment in Equipment & Software and Structures: 2005 to 2012 Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc.

July 2009 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville5 Housing Starts and Light Vehicle Sales: 2005 to Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc. (millions, annual rate)

July 2009 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville6 Tennessee Building Permits: Jan-2005 to May-2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey (as reported in the State of the Cities Data System [SOCDS] database).

July 2009 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville7 FHFA Housing Price Index: 2005 to 2012 Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc.

July 2009 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville8 $561 Billion Stimulus Injection 2009–2010 ► percentage pts ► percentage pts Boost to GDP Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc.

July 2009 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville9 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. Payroll Employment: Jan-08 to May-09 (seasonally adjusted)

July 2009 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville10 Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc. U.S. Nonfarm Employment: 2005 to 2012

July 2009 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville11 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. TN Nonfarm Employment: Jan-08 to May-09 (seasonally adjusted)

July 2009 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville12 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; IHS Global Insight, Inc.; and CBER-UT. (seasonally adjusted) Tennessee Nonfarm Employment: 2006 to 2011

July 2009 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville13 Less than 9.0% 9.0% to 11.9% Note: County data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development. 12.0% to 14.9% 15.0% to 17.9% Unemployment Rate, May % to 20.9% 21.0% or higher Tennessee 10.7% United States 9.4%

July 2009 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville14 TN Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims and Benefits Paid: Jan-07 to Apr-09 Source: U.S. Department of Labor.

July 2009 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville15 Year-Over-Year Change in Real Major Taxes: to Source: U.S. Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

July 2009 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville16 TN Tax Collections, Total and Sales & Use: Jan-07 to Apr-09 Source: Tennessee Department of Revenue, Revenue Collections, monthly.

July 2009 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville17 TN Realty Transfer & Mortgage Tax Collections: Jan-05 to May-09 Source: Tennessee Department of Revenue, Revenue Collections, monthly.

July 2009 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville18 TN Long-Term Forecast, Revenue Collections (millions of dollars) Source: William F. Fox CBER-UT May 11, 2009

July 2009 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville19 Center for Business & Economic Research College of Business Administration The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 716 Stokely Management Center 916 Volunteer Boulevard Knoxville, Tennessee phone: fax: