What will be the “New Normal” and Are We There Yet? Jeffrey H. Dorfman The University of Georgia March 11, 2010.

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Presentation transcript:

What will be the “New Normal” and Are We There Yet? Jeffrey H. Dorfman The University of Georgia March 11, 2010

Outline Have We Hit Bottom? Where Are We? When Will It Get Better? Will It Ever Be Like It Was Before?

Have We Hit Bottom? Source: UGA Selig Center

Have We Hit Bottom? Source: GA Dept of Revenue

Have We Hit Bottom? Source: GA Dept of Revenue

Have We Hit Bottom?

Where Are We? Source: Conference Board

Where Are We? Source: Institute for Supply Management

When Will It Get Better? Source: Conference Board

When Will It Get Better?

This Has Happened Before Source: US Census Bureau

Will It Be Like Before? Depends largely on the savings rate. We have lost $200B/yr in spending from real estate wealth. Non-government economy contracted about 10%. Will take 3-4 years to regain what was lost.

Will It Be Like Before? Exports appear to be recovering sharply. This is good for agriculture. However, will probably take until 2011 to regain losses.

Will It Be Like Before? Farmer’s exposure to the rest of the economy depends on the commodities grown. Not only does non- farm income vary, but if you grow nursery plants, the real estate slowdown affects you.

Will It Be Like Before? So far, farmers have managed to hang on. However, the shift toward lower incomes will effect wealth eventually, which causes debt load issues.

Will It Be Like Before? Georgia economy was led by real estate and financial sectors. Those sectors will not return to peak levels for a long time, if ever. Local governments needs new revenue streams or will shrink. State government needs to be resized to the long-term trend and not to the best of times. Ag should return to normal this year or next depending on export dependence and world recovery.

What is the “New Normal” We need to plan for normal growth from the current situation. We should not expect to recover to earlier levels and then grow from there. The new normal starts from here and now.