From risk analysis to risk perception – a case study on systemic risks Maria Luísa Lima, ISCTE IST, 4th May 2004 S&T and the management of risk: implications for technology policy

Focus of the presentation A case study on the management of risk associated to the construction of a waste incinerator. A case study on the management of risk associated to the construction of a waste incinerator. –A technological innovation in Portugal –A great deal of uncertainty around the consequences of the incinerator –The public debate was framed by a scientific debate

Structure of the presentation The context of the decision and the follow-up study The context of the decision and the follow-up study The interface between risk analysis and risk perception during the process The interface between risk analysis and risk perception during the process The consequences for risk management The consequences for risk management

The context of the decision to construct the incinerator (1) Enormous increase in waste production Enormous increase in waste production Several municipalities in the North and some others in the South decided to joint to built two waste incinerators Several municipalities in the North and some others in the South decided to joint to built two waste incinerators Environmental groups contested this decision Environmental groups contested this decision Local movements emerged to fight against the incinerator (specially in Lisbon) Local movements emerged to fight against the incinerator (specially in Lisbon)

The context of the decision to construct the incinerator (2) An Environmental Impact Assessment Study was conducted for each site An Environmental Impact Assessment Study was conducted for each site It was one of the first EIA processes in Portugal It was one of the first EIA processes in Portugal It included a social-psychological part It included a social-psychological part

Risk analysis and risk perception Social Psychological part and Risk perception were only included in the EIA study because there was a great deal of media coverage of the protests Social Psychological part and Risk perception were only included in the EIA study because there was a great deal of media coverage of the protests Risk perception was tolerated, but conceived as an erroneous approach to the risk Risk perception was tolerated, but conceived as an erroneous approach to the risk But there is no clear scientific evidence for the absence of effects to public health (Hu and Shy, 2001) But there is no clear scientific evidence for the absence of effects to public health (Hu and Shy, 2001)

Theoretical Model of Social Psychological Impacts Objective features of the Environment  Noise  Air Pollution  Water pollution Moderating variables (meaning)  Local identity  Attitude toward LIPOR II  Distance to LIPORII Sources of Impact  Annoyance (noise)  Annoyance (smell & smog)  Perceived threat Social Psychological Impacts  Stress  Anxiety  Depression

% of residents against the incinerator

Prediction of attitudes (Explained variance =66%) Risk perception Expectations Attitude towards the incinerator Adj R 2 =.66 Trust env. group-.17 Distance to the site.13

Decision To built the incinerator, but: To built the incinerator, but: –A follow up study was needed in order to ensure the correctness of the results of the EIA study. –A communication strategy was needed to ensure that the residents were informed about the incinerator and could control the process

Evaluating systemic risks

The follow-up study included Environmental follow-up Environmental follow-up –Water resources (DG-UA) –Air quality (IDAD-UA) –Biology (water and surface) (DB-UA) –Noise (DAO-UA) Public health follow-up (ISCBAS) Public health follow-up (ISCBAS) Social Psychological follow-up (CIS- ISCTE) Social Psychological follow-up (CIS- ISCTE)

The procedure of the SPF-U x Regular data collection by surveys :Localities close to the site: 2Kms: 6 villages2Kms: 6 villages 5 kms: 3 towns5 kms: 3 towns 10 Kms: Oporto10 Kms: Oporto

Surveys assessed Atitudes towards the incinerator (  =.78) Atitudes towards the incinerator (  =.78) Risk perception (perceived likelihood of negative consequences) (  =.93) Risk perception (perceived likelihood of negative consequences) (  =.93) Perceived environmental quality: annoyance due to daytime noise (  =.85), nighttime noise (  =.91), air pollution (  =.89) Perceived environmental quality: annoyance due to daytime noise (  =.85), nighttime noise (  =.91), air pollution (  =.89) Psychological suffering: depression (  =.67), anxiety (  =.68) (HADS, Zigmond et al., 1983) and stress (  =.69) (PSS-4, Cohen et al, 1983). Psychological suffering: depression (  =.67), anxiety (  =.68) (HADS, Zigmond et al., 1983) and stress (  =.69) (PSS-4, Cohen et al, 1983).

12 waves by now May May February July March February July February July February July February /- 300 interviews in each wave +/- 300 interviews in each wave 3997 interviews to 1020 different residents (drop outs <20%) 3 focus groups 3 focus groups

Communication strategy Regular meetings with a Committee of residents Regular meetings with a Committee of residents Information center and a phone line Information center and a phone line An environmental education center An environmental education center Contacts with schools and collectivities, open days Contacts with schools and collectivities, open days A newsletter, regularly delivered in the mail box A newsletter, regularly delivered in the mail box

Evolution of the attitudes (May 97- July 03) Attitudes became more positive in the group living closer to the incinerator

Evolution of risk perception (July 99- July 03) Risk perception has significantly lowered in the group living closer to the site Risk perception has significantly lowered in the group living closer to the site

Annoyance due to odours A more salient problem during the summer A more salient problem during the summer It is visible an increase after the incinerator started to work It is visible an increase after the incinerator started to work

Psychological suffering Increases during the construction phase and when the incinerator started to work Increases during the construction phase and when the incinerator started to work The habituation process in slower in this case The habituation process in slower in this case

Environmental predictors of psychological suffering (more distant sample) Annoyance due to air pollution Annoyance due to daytime noise Psychological suffering 0,15 R 2 =0,07

Environmental predictors of psychological suffering (closer sample) 0,24 0,18 R 2 =0,18 Perceived risk 0,14 Annoyance due to air pollution Annoyance due to daytime noise Psychological suffering

Giving meaning to the environmental changes (from the focus groups) “ Now I notice that the plants are different (…) they get mildium, I don´t know, they become brown, with little brown spots. Potatoes appear to be deformed… Yes, I think that there has been a change in the plants” (W1). “ Now I notice that the plants are different (…) they get mildium, I don´t know, they become brown, with little brown spots. Potatoes appear to be deformed… Yes, I think that there has been a change in the plants” (W1). “My mother has now some respiratory problems. She had never had bronchitis. Some years ago, she started to have bronchitis. I don´t know. It can be a consequence of her age. But the incinerator can also have aggravated it” (W2). “My mother has now some respiratory problems. She had never had bronchitis. Some years ago, she started to have bronchitis. I don´t know. It can be a consequence of her age. But the incinerator can also have aggravated it” (W2).

Hypothetical link Environmental annoyance Interpretation as danger Risk perception Psychological suffering

Is this level of psychological suffering higher than in other industrial areas? study conducted with validated psychological instruments study conducted with validated psychological instruments comparison between residents near Lipor and those living in comparison between residents near Lipor and those living in –Estarreja (industry, air pollution) –Santo Tirso (industy, water pollution) –Cacia (industry, odour problem) –Ermesinde (former odour problem) demographic variables controlled demographic variables controlled

Psychological well being It is one of the highest areas in well being It is one of the highest areas in well being

Depression (HADS) Medium levels of depression Medium levels of depression

Anxiety (HADS) Medium levels of anxiety Medium levels of anxiety

Coping - denial The lowest level of denial

After 7 years of studies… Some environmental problems have been detected and minimized (e.g. water pollution) Some environmental problems have been detected and minimized (e.g. water pollution) Some new problems occurred and were solved (e.g. changes in the noise legislation) Some new problems occurred and were solved (e.g. changes in the noise legislation) Residents became particularly aware of the risks (costs to well-being) Residents became particularly aware of the risks (costs to well-being) The communication strategy increased the sense of control The communication strategy increased the sense of control Comparatively, the levels of well being are good. Comparatively, the levels of well being are good.

Risk perception Was viewed as a bogus variable Was viewed as a bogus variable Turned out to be a central one to understand the consequences of “living near the fire” to the quality of life of the residents Turned out to be a central one to understand the consequences of “living near the fire” to the quality of life of the residents

On the real costs of risk perception This case study shows that the subjective evaluation of risk should be taken seriously This case study shows that the subjective evaluation of risk should be taken seriously For those exposed to the risk, risk perception is associated to higher levels of psychological suffering. For those exposed to the risk, risk perception is associated to higher levels of psychological suffering. This occurs because environmental changes are interpreted as dangerous This occurs because environmental changes are interpreted as dangerous

On the real consequences of these studies The regular attention to the public was important because this is a new and controversial technology and their knowledge and experience should also be taken into consideration The regular attention to the public was important because this is a new and controversial technology and their knowledge and experience should also be taken into consideration The information strategy allowed a sense of control over the process The information strategy allowed a sense of control over the process

Risk management It was carefully done, and lots of (scientific) information was gathered in order to describe and minimize the risks It was carefully done, and lots of (scientific) information was gathered in order to describe and minimize the risks Subjective risk was assessed, and it was proven to be a cause of a diminished sense of well being Subjective risk was assessed, and it was proven to be a cause of a diminished sense of well being Habituation was accompanied by an increased sense of control Habituation was accompanied by an increased sense of control The communication strategy was probably a fundamental instrument to this achievement The communication strategy was probably a fundamental instrument to this achievement