Integration of Economic Values in Biophysical Models PhD research Marit Ellen Kragt Supervisors: Jeff Bennett (Crawford), Tony Jakeman (Fenner), Lachlan Newham (Fenner)

Issue  Trade-offs between 1.Changes in catchment management 2.Impacts on river condition 3.Costs and benefits for local landholders, industries and society

Issue Need for improved knowledge Impacts of catchment management changes on river and estuary conditions (WQ and ecology) Market effects on downstream industries Non-market effects on households

Research objective Develop an integrated model of the hydrological, ecological and economic systems impacted by alternative management actions, focusing on river and estuary water quality

Case study  Integrated modelling exercise for George River catchment, Tasmania

Methodology  Biophysical modelling (hydrology, riparian buffers, pathogens)  Ecological modelling (riparian zone, fish, oyster)  Economic modelling (market values, non-market valuation)  Integration using a Bayesian Network Approach

Challenges  Limited data and models available  Compatibility between ecological indicators and economic attributes  Specific issues in CM (e.g. discontinuous choices)  INTEGRATION

Integration – Bayesian Networks  Linking multiple systems  Accounting for uncertainty through probabilistic approach  Allowing for different data sources

Progress and further steps  Progress Erosion model development Riparian and pathogen assessment Conceptual Bayesian Network Draft CM survey pretested  And now Finish biophysical modelling Expert interviews to assess Bayesian Network Revision and testing of CM survey