Overview of Ozone and PM 2.5 in the Upper Midwest Regional Air Quality Workshop November 17, 2004.

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Presentation transcript:

Overview of Ozone and PM 2.5 in the Upper Midwest Regional Air Quality Workshop November 17, 2004

Overview Current Air Quality (O 3, PM 2.5, and regional haze) Regional Planning Efforts Schedule Organization Preliminary control strategy analyses

Current Air Quality O 3 PM 2.5 Regional Haze

8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Areas (Region V) 104 Nonattainment Counties !!!!

8-Hour Ozone Trends

Possible PM 2.5 Nonattainment Areas (Region V) 72 Nonattainment Counties !!!!

St. Louis DetroitChicago/Milwaukee/Gary

PM 2.5 : Urban v. Regional urban regional

urban regional urban regional

Isle Royale National Park, MI

Visibility Requirements Section 169A of CAAA of 1977 requires “as a national goal the prevention of any future, and the remedying of any existing, impairment of visibility in Class I areas which impairment results from manmade air pollution.” Visibility regulations (July 1, 1999) require “reasonable progress” to achieving natural conditions by the year 2064

Cite: Particulate Matter Science for Policy Makers, NARSTO, February 2003 “One Atmosphere”

Regional Planning Efforts Schedule Organization Preliminary control strategy analyses

Regulatory Schedule OzonePM 2.5 (Haze) Nonattainment designations April 15, 2004Dec 2004 Effective:June 15, 2004February 2005 SIPs dueJune 2007Feb 2008 Attainment dates2009/ (2018)

Regional Modeling Schedule Round 0 - Base G 2002 Sensitivity Round 5 -Draft AD Plans Emissions Models Refined 1 Atmosphere Model Develop/Refine Early CAIR Assess 2002 Base E and F 2002 Base Inventory Develop/Refine + Growth/Control Factor Develop/Refine Round 1 Test-CAIR Reassess & OTB Round 2 - Base I, Final OTB ? Baselines, & Complex % Reduction Scenarios Round 4 - Assess Control Measure Combinations flexing Round 3 Targets Round 3 -Find Attainment Level Sub-Sector Ranges Model Final Attainment Plans

LADCO States

Technical Analyses: Modeling 12 km 36 km Model: CAMx Domain/Grid: Eastern U.S. (36 km), Midwest (12 km) Year: 2002 (full year) - PM/haze, 36 km 2001, 2002, 2003 (summer) – O 3, 12 km

2009 Base Controls Current state/local rules to meet 1-hour ozone requirements (e.g., motor vehicle I/M, reformulated gasoline, and NOx SIP Call) Heavy-duty diesel (2007) engine standard/Low sulfur fuel Federal control programs incorporated into NONROAD model (e.g., nonroad diesel rule), plus the evaporative Large Spark Ignition and Recreational Vehicle standards Federal railroad/locomotive standards Federal commercial marine vessel engine standards Tier II/Low sulfur fuel Title IV for EGUs (Phases I and II) VOC 2-, 4-, 7-, and 10-year MACT standards Combustion turbine MACT Industrial boiler/process heater/RICE MACT

Base ( ) 2009 Base O3O3

Base ( ) 2009 Base PM 2.5

Summary Regional, multi-pollutant planning approach SIPs for ozone (8-hour) and PM 2.5 due in mid and early 2008, respectively Need to identify control strategies by late 2005/early 2006 Technical analyses to support SIP development underway