Disruptive Demographics: Implications for K-12 Education August 2011

OVERVIEW Demographic Trends Challenges & Opportunities Discussion

what CENSUS 2010 will REVEAL

6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS The South Rises – Again The Browning of America The Silver Tsunami Marrying Out is “In” The End of Men? Cooling Water from Grandma’s Well… and Grandpa’s Too!

The South Continues To Rise The South Continues To Rise...Again!

South’s Share of U.S. Net Population Growth, Selected Years, YearsU.S. Absolute Population Change South’s Absolute Population Change South’s Share of Change ,974,129 8,468,30327% ,123,138 9,339,45533% ,886,12815,598,27930% ,497,94722,650,56350% ,035,66529,104,81449%

U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, Region 2010 Population Absolute Population Change, Percent Population Change, U.S.309,050,81626,884,9729.5% Northeast55,417,3111,753,9783.3% Midwest66,972,8872,480,9983.0% South114,404,43513,845, % West72,256,1838,774, % Wyoming563,62669, %

SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, Region Absolute Population ChangePercent of Total UNITED STATES26,884, NORTHEAST1,753, MIDWEST2,480, SOUTH13,845, WEST8,774,

NET MIGRATION TRENDS, NortheastMidwestSouthWest Total-1,032-2,008+2, Black Hispanic Elderly Foreign born = Net Import= Net Export

THE “BROWNING” OF AMERICA

The Numbers Legal Immigrants: : 206,000 annually : 561,000 annually : 800,654 annually : 879,400 annually : 1,137,000 annually Refugees, Parolees, Asylees : 2.1 million (65,000 annually) : 428,361 (85,672 annually) : 487,386 (81,231 annually) : 203,642 (75,661 annually) Illegal Immigrants: 300,000 to 400,000 annually over the past two decades Three million granted amnesty in million illegal immigrants remained in U.S. after 1986 reforms October 1996: INS estimated that there were 5 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. August 2005: Illegal population range from 7 to 15 million.

NON-IMMIGRANTS ADMITTED TO UNITED STATES, SELECTED YEARS, YearAll ClassesExchange Visitors Academic & Vocational Students ,756,903108,023 (1%)271,861 (2%) 19859,539,880141,213 (1%)285,496 (3%) ,574,055214,644 (1%)355,207 (2%) ,640,540241,364 (1%)395,480 (2%) ,690,082351,743 (1%)699,953 (2%) ,824,088389,435 (1%)741,921 (2%) ,907,139370,176 (1%)687,506 (2%) ,781,330360,777(1%)656,373(2%) ,381,928506,138 (1%)917,373(2%)

IMMIGRANT POPULATION, Source: Center for Immigration Studies; U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, Race2009 Population Absolute Change 2000 – 2009 Percentage Change Total307,806,55024,834, Non-Hispanic258,587,22612,057, White199,851,2404,088, Black37,681,5443,276, AIAN2,360,807256, Asian13,686,0833,233, NHPI448,51079, Two or More Races4,559,0421,123, Hispanic48,419,32412,776,

SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH, Race Absolute Change Percent of Total Total24,834, Non-Hispanic12,057, White4,088, Black3,276, American Indian256, Asian3,233, Native Hawaiian79, Two or More Races1,123, Hispanic12,776,

MEDIAN AGE OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE, HISPANIC ORIGIN & GENDER, 2009 RaceTotalMaleFemale United States White Alone White, Non-Hispanic Black Alone AIAN Alone Asian Alone NHPI Alone Two or More Races Hispanic

TOTAL FERTILITY RATES OF U.S. WOMEN BY RACE/ETHNICITY, 2007 Race/EthnicityTotal Fertility Rate Hispanic2.99 Non-Hispanic White1.87 Blacks2.13 Asian2.04 Native American1.86 Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010)

RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity White66%50% Blacks17%16% Hispanics15%26% Other2%8% Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010).

RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity White67%47% Blacks12.8%13% Hispanics14%29% Asian5%9% Source: Pew Research Center, 2008 *projected.

THE SILVER TSUNAMI

U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, Age2009 Absolute Change Percentage Change <25104,960,2505,258, ,096,278-1,898, ,379,43916,977, ,570,5904,496, TOTAL307,006,55024,834,5938.8

U.S. POPULATION TURNING 50, 55, 62, AND 65 YEARS OF AGE, ( ) Age 50 Age 55 Age 62 Age 65 Average Number/Day12,34411,5419,2218,032 Average Number/Minute

THE GREYING OF AMERICA U.S. Census Projections

ABSOLUTE AND PERCENT CHANGE IN U.S. POPULATION BY AGE Age % Change Total

OLDER WORKERS IN U.S. WORKFORCE YEAR Age 65 or Older Age 75 or Older %4.7% %7.3%

is “In” Marrying Out

INTERMARRIAGE TREND, % Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity

EDUCATION & INTERMARRIAGE % of Newlyweds Who Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity, 2008

INTERMARRIAGE TYPES Newly Married Couples in 2008

INTERMARRIAGE RATES BY RACE & ETHNICITY % of Newlyweds Who Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity, 2008

The End of Men?

FEMALE WORKFORCE REPRESENTATION

COLLEGE CLASS OF 2010 DEGREEMALEFEMALEDIFFERENCE Associate’s293,000486,000193,000 Bachelor’s702,000946,000244,000 Master’s257,000391,000134,000 Professional46,80046, Doctor’s31,50032,9001,400 TOTAL1,330,3001,902,300572,000

JOBS LOST/GAINED BY GENDER DURING 2007 (Q4) – 2009 (Q3) RECESSION IndustryWomenMen Construction -106,000-1,300,000 Manufacturing -106,000-1,900,000 Healthcare +451, ,100 Government +176, ,000 Total-1,700,000-4,700,000

Cooling Waters From Grandma’s Well And Grandpa’s Too!

CHILDREN LIVING IN NON-GRANDPARENT AND GRANDPARENT HOUSEHOLDS, Household Type Absolute Number 2010 Absolute Change Percent Change All 74,7182, No Grandparents 67, Both Grandparents 2, Grandmother Only 1, Grandfather Only

CHILDREN LIVING IN NON-GRANDPARENT AND GRANDPARENT-HEADED HOUSEHOLDS BY PRESENCE OF PARENTS, 2010 Household Type All Children (in thousands) Living with Both Parents Living with Mother Only Living with Father Only Living with Neither parent All74, %23.1%3.4%4.0% No Grandparents 67, %21.2%3.3%2.1% Both Grandparents 2, %40.6%5.2%36.1% Grandmother Only 1, %48.4%4.5%33.2% Grandfather Only %45.9%4.4%23.6%

IMPLICATIONS FOR WORKPLACES Managing transition from the “graying” to the “browning” of America. Competition for talent will be fierce – and global. Successful recruitment and retention will hinge on your ability to effectively manage the full nexus of “diversity” issues. Cultural Elasticity will be in great demand.

CHANGE IN FOREIGN BORN AND HISPANIC SHARES OF WORKING AGE POPULATION (18-64), Age * Total186 million255 million Hispanic Share14%31% Foreign-born Share15%23%

DEMAND FOR CULTURAL ELASTICITY Linguistic Religious Family Structure Lifestyle Sexual Orientation Generational

OLDER WORKERS IN U.S. WORKFORCE 65 or Older 75 or Older %7.3% %4.7%

STRATEGIES TO ATTRACT AND RETAIN OLDER WORKERS Flexible work arrangements (consultant, temporary and part-time assignments) Phased-retirement program Retirement health benefits Prescription drug coverage Superior vision and dental plans Defined benefit pension Long-term care insurance

IMPLICATIONS FOR K-12 & HIGHER EDUCATION AND TRAINING

...but Challenges Abound DIVERSITY RULES

...but insufficient...but insufficient Education is Necessary

AVERAGE SHARE OF LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT BY EDUCATION Education % Change Less Than High School24.7%23.7% High School Graduate40.6%34.3%-6.3 Some College20.7%24.4%3.7 Bachelor’s Degree or More 14.0%17.6%3.6

AVERAGE SHARE OF LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION Occupation % Change Blue Collar40.5%31.6%-8.9 Service Occupation14.3%16.7%2.4 White Collar38.5%44.4%5.9

THE LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED, 2009 PROFESSION % OF ALL JOBLESS WORKERS Architecture & Engineering41.2 Management39.0 Community & Social Services Occupations36.1 Installation, Maintenance & Repair Work34.9 Production Occupations33.4

Survival Skills l Personal branding is paramount l Display entrepreneurial acumen l Develop contextual intelligence l Hone soft skills

Personal Branding & Image Marketing l Create an accurate and honest picture of the “impression you make on others” l Explain the end result of what you do – your value add l Develop ‘reputational’ power l Create a personal website to market yourself l Example: KwameJackson.com

Entrepreneurial Acumen l Demonstrate a willingness to take incalculable risks and the ability to be agile, flexible, tenacious, and decisive in responding to unanticipated crises and opportunities.

Contextual Intelligence l Develop an acute sensitivity to the social, political, technological, economic, and demographic drivers of change that will likely define the future.

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE NATION’S HEALTH AND COMPETITIVENESS Create healthy and viable communities Active living by design Health eating by design Infuse health and wellness education throughout K-16 curriculum Strategically re-position health disparities as a competitiveness issue.