Public Opinion By Loren Miller “What I want to get done is what the people desire to have done, and the question for me is how to find that out exactly.” Abraham Lincoln By Loren Miller

Why is Public Opinion Important? Democratic governments rest on the consent of the governed. -- Hence, major shifts in public opinion should trigger a shift in public policy -- But public opinion is often unstable, weak, ill informed or nonexistent -- So public officials have flexibility in dealing with public issues This attention to public opinion has created an industry in public opinion polling and survey research.

Survey Research: Can We Believe the Polls? Many organizations regularly sponsor independent national surveys. -- CBS, ABC, NBC, FOX, Gallup, Washington Post, Time, Newsweek Political candidates also contract with private marketing and opinion research firms to conduct surveys in conjunction with their campaigns.

Survey Research: Can We Believe the Polls? A “good” poll depends upon the selection of a random sample of persons chosen in such a way which insures that every person in the universe of people has an equal chance of being selected for interviewing. National samples usually begin with 1,000 or more randomly selected persons -- the larger the sample, the more accurate the results -- the larger the sample, the more costly it becomes

Survey Research: Can We Believe the Polls? The accuracy of the results primarily depends on the randomness and size of the sample as well as the wording of the questions. Leading questions are often used by unprofessional pollsters to produce a result favorable to their side. Survey researchers can estimate the sampling error through the mathematics of probability. -- the sampling error is usually expressed as a percentage range—for example, plus or minus 3 percent

Survey Research: Framing the Question Do you believe that waterboarding is torture and that the U.S. has a moral responsibility to not engage in or condone any form of torture? -- the question is confusing as there are two issues that are presented: is waterboarding torture and whether the U.S. should engage in it Do you believe that abortion should be legal? -- the question is oversimplified as many people believe that abortion should be legal under certain circumstances Should the Obama administration step back from the rush to create “cap and trade” energy legislation that will cost jobs, harm future economic growth, and impose an estimated $1,761 new energy tax on American families? -- the question is biased

Survey Research: Margins of Error* Margin of Error Sample Size +/- 4% 600 +/- 3% 1,065 +/- 2% 2,390 +/- 1% 9,425 * For a universe greater than 500,000, 95% of the time

A Checklist for an Accurate Poll A Random Sample: were the people in the survey randomly selected such that any member of the population had an equal chance being selected? Sample Size: How many people do researchers need for an accurate survey? Sample Error: the larger the sample size, the smaller the sample error. Question Wording: did the way the questions were worded influence the results? Reliable Respondents: respondents often give socially acceptable answers rather than truthful ones.

Prior to the 1936 election, The Literary Digest took a straw poll of its readers and predicted a landslide victory for Alf Landon, the Republican nominee. FDR won 46 of the 48 states in a landslide victory. (Over 2 million votes but a biased sample) The Chicago Tribune called the 1948 election early in the evening thinking that Truman would lose (wishful thinking on the part of the editors).

Accuracy of the Gallup Poll

Survey Research: Push Polls These polls are often done by campaign workers posing as independent pollsters. They deliberately word questions in such a way as to elicit the “right” response: -- “if you knew that Congressman Smith would soon be indicted for child molestation, would you vote for him?” -- “improving education” vs. “raising taxes” -- “cleaning up the environment” vs. “expanding government power”

Survey Research: Exit Polls On election day voters are personally interviewed as they leave the voting booth. Exit polls are used by the media to “call” winners early on election night even before all the votes are counted. -- in response to criticism that early calls reduce voter turnout, the networks have agreed not to call a state result until after the polls close in that state

Survey Research: Other Polls Telephone Poll: How random is the sample? Internet Poll: Does everyone own a computer? Call-in Poll: Who is likely to call in?

Tips on Reading Polls Check out the margin of error. A 3 percent margin of error means plus or minus 3 percent, turning a 50 percent approval rating into one of 47-53 percent What is the timing? The further away from Election Day, the less meaningful the results The random sample is the “gold standard” If the respondents chose themselves (by deciding to take the survey), then it’s only fun to read and not an accurate picture of the public What is the sample size Be wary of polls that interview a small number of people Compare across polls Since every poll has biases, read a range of polls, toss out the extreme findings, and take an average of the rest

Socialization: The Origins of Political Opinions Political Socialization is the learning of political values, beliefs and opinions. -- this begins early in life Family—the first agent of socialization -- children begin to identify themselves as Republicans or Democrats (almost always the same as their parents) but specific opinions on policy questions may not be the same -- political opinions in identical twins are more similar than political opinions of non-identical twins (genetic inheritance?)

Political Participation By Family Income

% of Parents Who Voted for the Same Presidential Candidate as Their Children Obama Voters McCain Voters Same Candidate 58% 78% Different Candidate 17% 5% One parent voted the same; One parent voted different 20% 12% Not Voting 5% 3%

Socialization: The Origins of Political Opinions School—today political battles over textbooks, teaching methods, and prayer in schools are not unusual -- there is no strong evidence that there is a causal relationship between what is taught in the schools and the political attitudes of students -- schools try to inculcate good citizenship values in their students (tolerance for others, the importance of voting, democratic rules) -- students are taught to respect the institutions of government (the flag, the Pledge of Allegiance) -- the younger the student the more positive their attitudes towards political authority -- during high school students acquire some ability to think along liberal and conservative lines -- the college experience appears to produce a “liberalizing” effect

Education and Tolerance

Socialization: The Origins of Political Opinions Religious Beliefs—which religion a person identifies with and how important religion is to the individual’s life affects public opinion. -- religion shapes political attitudes on a variety of issues: abortion, drugs, the death penalty, homosexuality, and prayer in public schools -- religion also plays a role in political ideology: fundamentalists are more likely to describe themselves as conservatives than moderates, and very few accept the liberal label.

Religion and Public Opinion

Socialization: The Origins of Political Opinions Age—The Generation Gap -- on most issues, older people are more conservative than younger people -- younger Americans in general are less interested and involved in politics than older Americans -- younger Americans are less likely to keep up with political news and are less likely to vote Media Influence—media attention creates issues; it sets the agenda for discussion -- it does not tell people what to think; it tells them what to think about

Gender and Opinion Is there a gender gap in public opinion? Yes and No Women are more likely than men to: -- favor an activist role for government -- oppose U.S. military intervention -- support restrictions on firearms -- support spending on social programs -- identify themselves as Democrats There is no difference on issues such as: -- abortion -- the role of women in business and politics -- whether one would vote for a qualified woman for president

Gender and Public Opinion Policy Men Women Gender Gap Agree that same sex marriage 40% 53% 13% should be legal in all/most states Believe that government does 52% 62% 10% not do enough for poor people Believe that the best way to ensure peace is through good 53% 62% 9% diplomacy Believe that the country should do whatever it takes to protect 67% 75% 8% the environment

Race and Opinion Whites and Blacks differ significantly in: -- believing that there is discrimination in employment, housing and education -- Blacks generally support a more positive role for government in reducing inequality in society (Blacks are more apt to identify themselves as liberals) -- African American perceptions of the criminal justice system are especially negative

Hispanic Opinion Hispanics are generally conservative on social issues: -- opposing abortion and opposing racial preference Hispanics are generally liberal on economic issues: -- government provision for health insurance -- belief that immigration helps the economy The Hispanic voter turnout is quite low: -- Hispanics account for over 15% of the population but around 10% of the voters

Who Votes and Why? The more lively the competition, the greater the interest of citizens, then the larger the voter turnout. -- competitive elections are given larger play by the media -- people are more likely to think that their vote counts -- parties and interest groups spend more time and money trying to get out the vote

Who Votes and Why? Young people do not vote in the same proportion as older people -- 48% of 18-24 year olds voted in 2008 -- 70% of 65 and older voted in 2008 The more education, the more likely you are to vote -- 37% of those with less than a 9th grade education voted in 2008 -- 55% of those with a high school education voted in 2008 -- 83% of those with an advanced degree voted in 2008

Turnout Increases With Age

Turnout Rate By Education

Ideological ID of College Freshmen

Who Votes and Why? Females are more likely to vote than males -- 66% of women and 61% of men voted in 2008 High income people are more likely to vote than low income people (linked to education) Whites and Blacks are more apt to vote than are Hispanics -- 65% of Whites voted in 2008 -- 63% of Blacks voted in 2008 -- 48% of Hispanics voted in 2008

Turnout Rate By Gender

Participation Rate By Income Level

Turnout Rate By Occupation

The Changing American Voter

Turnout Rate By Type of Election

Political Activities

Americans are more likely to have contacted politicians than citizens of most other democracies . . . (%)

but are less likely to have participated in political protests (%)

Voter Turnout Rate in Selected Democracies 1945-2008

Political Party Identification

Political Attitudes of Democrats and Republicans Dem Rep Government should take care of people who can’t take care of themselves 77% 46% Government should help more needy people even if the national debt increases 65% 29% The best way to insure peace is through military strength 43% 75% Poor people have become too dependent on government programs 62% 83% We should restrict and control people coming into our country to live more than we do now 64% 83% The government is really run for the benefit of all the people 60% 41% I am in favor of same-sex marriage 50% 17% I am very patriotic 46% 71%