WHAT COULD BE THE NEXT EARTHQUAKE DISASTER FOR JAPAN  A difficult question, but ---  It is the one that was being asked long before the March 11, 2011 TOHOKU earthquake catastrophe. Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO TOKAI, JAPAN EARTHQUAKE ZONE AN IMPENDING DISASTER

REGIONAL MAP

A probabilistic ground shaking hazard map requires integration of key aspects of geology, geophysics, and seismology in a consistent way to define: 1) Seismic source zones having a spatial and temporal distribution of magnitudes and recurrence rates. 2) Regional seismic wave attenuation rates.

MAP OF PGA FOR SE ASIA Afghanistan

LOCATION OF TOKAI

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS  The Nankai trough marks the boundary where the Philippines tectonic plate is subducting beneath Japan (part of the Eurasian plate).

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS  The section along Tokai has not ruptured since 1854.

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS  The recurrence interval of large- magnitude earthquakes along this boundary is believed to be years.

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS  At present, the land near Shizuoka is sinking toward the Nankai trough at about 5 mm/yr.  Japan’s Earthquake Research Institute is on record that the Tokai earthquake is eminent.

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE  Before the March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the Government of Japan expected its next great earthquake to be “the Tokai Earthquake.”

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE  The precise area along the Pacific coast-- about 160 km (100 mi) southwest of Tokyo-- that is expected to be affected has been delineated by scientific studies.  By law, this area is the focus of intensive preparations.

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE  Estimated deaths — between 7,900 and 9,200 depending on the amount of advance warning people have, the time of day when it occurs, and the tsunami.  Estimated property damage –- as much as $310 billion.

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE  Landslides -- 6,449 specific locations  Structures susceptible to quake- related fires – 58,402 specific houses

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE  The Government of Japan has an action plan based on the concept of “pre-slip.”  Pre-slip is based on laboratory experiments, which indicate that a rock slips for a short time before it ultimately fails.

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE  The Government of Japan is currently deploying strain meters throughout the Tokai area to record the slip and then provide as much advance warning as possible.

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS HAZARD MAPS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK QUAKE DISASTER RISK REDUCTION PREVENTION/MITIGATION PREPAREDNESS EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS

TECTONIC DEFORMATION EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI GROUND SHAKING FAULT RUPTURE FOUNDATION FAILURE SITE AMPLIFICATION LIQUEFACTION LANDSLIDESAFTERSHOCKSSEICHE DAMAGE/LOSS DAMAGE/ LOSS DAMAGE/LOSS