Enigma: the intelligence Linguistics 484. Limits of intelligence In 1798, Nelson simply didn’t know where the French Mediterranean fleet was. Reliant.

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Presentation transcript:

Enigma: the intelligence Linguistics 484

Limits of intelligence In 1798, Nelson simply didn’t know where the French Mediterranean fleet was. Reliant on line of sight, flags for ship to ship communication Navy codebook allowed commanders to say 2000 or so things to each other using flags Location information was out of date whenever obtained

Crete Context: Germany preparing invasion of Russia, had invaded Greece more or less accidentally, as result of wish to shore up southern flank. Opportunity to allow airborne troops to show their skills, since it wasn’t likely they would play a large role in Operation Barbarossa

Crete

Freyberg: New Zealander, experienced commander, not in the know about where the Ultra intelligence was coming from

The summary In addition, 12th Army will allot three Mountain Regiments as instructed. Further elements consisting of motor-cyclists, armoured units, anti-tank units, anti-aircraft units will also be allotted... Transport aircraft of which a sufficient number, about 600 will be allotted for this operation, will be assembled on aerodromes in the Athens area. The first sortie will probably carry parachute troops only. Further sorties will be concerned with the transport of the air-landing contingent, equipment and supplies, which will probably include aircraft towing gliders... the invading force will consist of some 30 to 35,000 men, of which some will be the parachute landing contingent and some 10,000 will be transported by sea. Orders have been issued that Suda Bay is not to be mined, nor will Cretan aerodromes be destroyed, so as not to interfere with the operation intended.

Which units were to land where Almost certainly in original decrypts Had Freyberg been able to access these, might have concentrated more force near the airport, which was crucial to resupply of the invading force Crucial missing information

Limits of intelligence You have to be able to understand the intelligence. It is dangerous (but inevitable) to rely on a summary. If confidentiality means that the summary is made by an off-site intelligence officer then there is a risk that operationally crucial details will not be given and/or asked for.

Battle of the Atlantic

Context Doenitz -- economic warfare. Experience of almost starving Britain in /3 of all food, plus all raw materials except coal and some iron ore needed to come to Britain by sea.

Context Britain had learned to use convoys in war Escort ships not necessarily of highest quality

Context Doenitz had two main innovations use of U-boats to attack from surface using torpedoes. Crucial, because U-boats were relatively fast (17 knots) on surface, so could outrun/keep pace with convoy. Wolf pack. Spread out to increase chance of contact with convoy, then concentrate

Weaknesses of wolfpack Needed radio to co-ordinate the members of the pack. Vulnerable to weather. In bad weather the U-boats needed to stay submerged. Work on U-boats very unpleasant and dangerous

Shipping losses Yearlost to U-boats lost to all enemy causes Total

Key statistics Of 120,000 crew on British merchant ships, around 30,000 died in sinkings of convoy ships (25% loss) In 43,526 sailings 272 allied ships were sunk (99.4% got through) Of 40,000 U-boat crew, 28,000 were killed by enemy action 713 submarines were sunk.

Tactics The main difficulty for U-boats was to locate a convoy at all. 10 U-boats could cover 220 miles of sea.

Role of intelligence Bletchley Park was frequently able to route convoys around U-boat traps. German B-dienst was reading convoy signals, and directing U-boats Signals discipline among U-boat sailors was pretty good, there was a period in 1943 where Bletchley Park was getting almost nothing.

Role of intelligence British got much better at anti-submarine tactics, using sonar, small aircraft carriers. John Keegan comments that rivalries and direct appeal to Hitler tended to freeze U-boat tactics at pre-war levels, whereas the Britain, with US help, adapted.

Tactics Clay Blair points out that evading U-boats is not necessarily the strategically best thing to do. It might be better to engage them, if you have escorts that are likely to sink them. Losing a U-boat was worse for the Germans than losing a merchant ship was for the allies.

Keegan’s conclusion Bletchley’s efforts gave the defenders some advantage, BUT In the end this was a true battle, with the main factor being the willingness of commanders to put forces into danger and engage with the enemy. The Battle of the Atlantic could have been won without codebreaking.

Limits of intelligence Agent Johnson: We believe Burns still has the bill hidden somewhere in his house, but all we've ascertained from satellite photos is that it's not on the roof. The Simpsons, Episode Number: 198 Season Num: 9

Credits John Keegan: Intelligence in War