COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013 Are the emerging middle classes the key to success? The middle class and political demands in Russia > Natalia ZUBAREVICH, Professor of Moscow state university, Director of regional program of independent institute for social policy 0

/ Russia: GDP and money income growth rate, (1998 = 100 %) 1 COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE GDPMoney income 20% population with the highest income - 350%

/ Middle classes criteria: low consistency, 2011, % households 2 COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013 Professional status 21 % Professional status 21 % Income and property 28 % Income and property 28 % Self- identification 25 % 10 % 9%9% 9%9% 5%5% 5%5% GGS survey : 11,261 households Source: IISP  Core of the middle class (3 criteria)  only 5 % households  2 criteria + 3d (above low class)  19 %  Core of the middle class (3 criteria)  only 5 % households  2 criteria + 3d (above low class)  19 %

/ Russia: Socio-economic stratification, % 3 COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% middle classMC peripherybelow MCLC peripherylow class Source: IISP

/  Moscow  40 % more 2011  Moscow  40 % more 2011  Entrepreneurs share decline:  2007 – 13 %  2011 – 11 %  Entrepreneurs share decline:  2007 – 13 %  2011 – 11 %  MC: years old singles and couples Middle class: spatial, labor and age structure 4 COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013 MC share of all households, % Source: IISP regional centersother cities and townscountryside % % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% not working both sectors entrepreneurs market sector budget sector women men less more

/ % Russia-1 big cities % Russia-3 small towns and rural periphery Russia-2 medium sized industrial cities Spatial structure of Russian population, % Center-periphery model 5 COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013 cities 1 million more 500 thous.-1 million 250 – 500 thousand 100 – 250 thousand thousand 50 thousand less small urban settlements rural settlements Population Russia-1 Russia-2 Russia-3

/ Share of votes for V. Putin (local precincts), % 6 COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013 minmax  Russia total - 63,6% (official data).  Center-periphery model works but not everywhere…