Atmospheric Policy Program

Our place in the scheme of things?

Atmospheric Policy Program GOES-R: our place in “earth’s fractal” A fractal is a rough or fragmented geometric shape that can be subdivided in parts, each of which is (at least approximately) a reduced-size copy of the whole. Fractals are generally self-similar and independent of scale.

Atmospheric Policy Program GOES-R: our place in earth’s fractal % of global effort 300 people/6B people ~ 5x people/6B people ~ 5x10 -7 $300M/$30T ~10 -5 % of earth science/services $300M/$10B ~3x10 -2

Atmospheric Policy Program GOES-R Global concerns

Atmospheric Policy Program Another dimension: the picture isn’t static… …because the human race is on a roll our job is to serve the world of 2012 and beyond…

Atmospheric Policy Program …in effect, to “land on the carrier…”

Atmospheric Policy Program in a short period of time... Population growth increase in per capita consumption of resources advance in technology

Atmospheric Policy Program computation 10 5 years 10 3 years 50 years

Atmospheric Policy Program biotechnology 50 years 1400 years

Atmospheric Policy Program transportation 10 5 years 10 4 years 100 years

Atmospheric Policy Program a parenthesis… OK -- So science and technology as a whole are moving forward... What about advances in meteorology?

Atmospheric Policy Program Throughout history,mankind has operated on three principles... assimilative capacity of the atmosphere is infinite climate is unchanging weather is unpredictable

Atmospheric Policy Program In the span of a century… …meteorologists have shown

Atmospheric Policy Program Assimilative capacity of the atmosphere is finite... Not just locally… or regionally… but also globally.

Atmospheric Policy Program The climate changes… sometimes abruptly

Atmospheric Policy Program …and weather is more predictable than we’d thought…

Atmospheric Policy Program in a short period of time... Population growth increase in per capita consumption of resources advance in technology

Atmospheric Policy Program In this period of rapid change, how do policy makers see the world?

Atmospheric Policy Program (~20) unsolved global issues planet (global warming, biodiversity, fisheries depletion, deforestation…) humanity (poverty, peacekeeping, education, disease…) governance (taxation, trade, biotech, IP…)

Atmospheric Policy Program (~20) years to solve them treaties and conventions? world government? big conferences? G7, EU, other multilaterals?

Atmospheric Policy Program In this coming 20 years… …environmental issues will muscle their way onto center stage. Why? Because…

Atmospheric Policy Program Human success has been achieved in a time short compared with the time required for... climate variability recurrence of extremes emergence of unintended consequences non-sustainability society to internalize emerging understanding

Atmospheric Policy Program Therefore we can expect a future marked by... (adverse) climate variability natural extremes more violent than we are prepared to accommodate environmental/social catastrophes declining margins ineffective top-down strategies

Atmospheric Policy Program So… this is where the butterfly comes in. GOES-R can “flap its wings” and change outcomes throughout the larger system Bring end users to the table Reshape the policy landscape

Atmospheric Policy Program Bring end users to the table? Replace with GOES-R dev Decision support End use GOES-R dev Decision support End use (remember the VAS assessment?)

Atmospheric Policy Program Reshape the policy landscape?

Atmospheric Policy Program Reshape the policy landscape?

Atmospheric Policy Program Needed: new policy tools, for assessing/addressing… Costs, benefits of met science, services Impact of different market mechanisms International data sharing Segmentation of weather providers Uncertainty re long-term requirements Need for long-term continuity Prioritization Other…

AMS helping the community meet this need: Policy Forum Series Summer Policy Colloquium Congressional Science Fellows Policy research advertisement

Atmospheric Policy Program % of global effort $10T/30T ~ 30% Ecosystem services ~$30T GlObal concErnS

Atmospheric Policy Program “Lastly, I would address one general admonition to all: that they consider what are the true ends of knowledge, and that they seek it not either for pleasure of mind, or for contention, or for superiority to others, or for profit, or fame, or power, or any of these inferior things; but for the benefit and use of life; and that they perfect and govern it in charity. For it was from the lust of power that the angels fell, from the lust of knowledge that men fell; but of charity there can be no excess, neither did angel or man ever come in danger by it.” -- Francis Bacon