July 8, 2014 Webinar: Explore patterns in space and time with the Visualization Tool

Alyssa Rosemartin Assistant Director & IT Coordinator Erin Posthumus Outreach Associate Theresa Crimmins Partnerships and Outreach Coordinator Webinar Team

Phenology The science of the seasons Blooms and buds Hibernation, migration, emergence Easy to observe Photo credit: L. Barnett …it is the study of the timing of recurring plant and animal life- cycle stages, or phenophases, and their relationship to environmental conditions.

U NDERSTAND HOW SPECIES AND LANDSCAPES ARE RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE. Primary goal Create a standardized dataset for use in multiple types of research. Mission Make phenology data, models and related information available. Encourage people of all ages and backgrounds to observe and record phenology. USA National Phenology Network Photo credit: C. Enquist

Nature’s Notebook for scientists, naturalists, volunteers, land managers, park rangers, and YOU! Photo credit: L. Romano USA National Phenology Network Poll

Observing change over time I observed an unusual circumstance this spring on the foothill of Moscow Mountain, northern Idaho, elev. 3000‘. I have been monitoring the arrival of hummers for many years here--they range in arrival from early to late April. Usually the Calliope is first, followed by the Rufous. Over the last few years, the Rufous have been either arriving at the same time or before the Calliope. This year the two were nearly simultaneous on Apr. 23. About a week later I spotted the Black Chinned--usually not often seen, and never before late June/July (followed in late summer by the Broadtailed).

Structuring observations April 23, 2012

Models leaf budburst across the eastern U.S. under climate scenarios; by the end of the century, species like red maple will leaf out 17 days earlier. Develops more precise models for changes in ecosystem function in Alaska, accounting for the phenology of individual species, rather than estimating an average day of year across species. Cloned plants had a more consistent response to warming spring temperatures than natural populations Publications

SpeciesPhenophaseSpaceTimeClimate Dimensions Represented Poll

Questions – Map Interface 1.Where are most sites located? 2.Where is my site located? 3.Where are people observing Trillium? 4.Exploring the green wave, with spring warming in 2014

Questions – Map Interface 1.Where are most sites located? 2.Where is my site located?

Questions – Map Interface 3. Where are people observing Trillium? Photo credit: Paul Donahue

Questions – Map Interface 4. Exploring the green wave, with spring warming in 2014

Questions – Graph Interface 1.Comparing across scales: How does red maple phenology compare across: individual tree, site, state and region? 2.Management: When do Siberian elm (invasive) and Cottonwood (native) fruit? 3.Species Interactions: 1.Monarch and milkweed 2.White-winged doves and Saguaros

Questions – Graph Interface 1.Comparing across scales: How does red maple phenology compare across: individual tree, site, state and region?

Questions – Graph Interface 2. Management: When do Siberian elm (invasive) and Cottonwood (native) fruit? Photo credit: Erin Posthumus

Questions – Graph Interface 3. Species Interactions: Monarch and milkweed Photo credit: Marty Nevils Davis

Don’t get tripped up! 1.Lots of sites with no data Check plant and animal leaderboards, to see which species have a good amount of data On the tool, filter by species first 2.Species box – filters just limit species list, you can’t limit data by partner (yet) 3.Long loading time, especially with climate data

Other tricks 1.Multiple site selection is key for looking at regional patterns 2.Plot data, and then change location in the graph tool to compare regions or years 3.Use direct URL to share your findings:

What places, species or phenophases would you like to explore? Poll – more mapping or graphing?

What is this tool good for? 1.Seeing which species and locations are data-rich 2.Finding potential patterns for example, relationships between climate and phenology 3.Answering straightforward questions for example, did my poppies flower earlier or later this year than last year?

What is this tool NOT good for? 1.Conclusively showing a relationship between two species Negative data is not completely taken into account (yeses override no’s in the graph if both are present for day/site/species) Animals are more likely to be seen if people spent longer looking for them, this is not accounted for in the tool Statistical tests (comparison of means, correlations) not available 2.Conclusively showing a relationship between climate variables and phenology

Resources 1.Videos: Tutorial: Training slides: ining.pdf ining.pdf

Upcoming webinars:  Tuesday, September 2, 2014: Special for Local Phenology Leaders: Partner showcase: Learn how other groups are using Nature's Notebook  Tuesday, September 23, 2014 Gaining 100% confidence in intensity estimates Mark your calendars…

Thank you! Alyssa Rosemartin You’re invited to connect with USA-NPN… Join the phenology community of practice, for research, education or management. Use NPN protocols, tools or data to advance your mission. Sign up for our quarterly newsletter.

Questions – Graph Interface 1.White-winged doves and Saguaros

Questions – Graph Interface Acorns on Valley Oaks

STATIC DEMO SLIDES

Comparing regionally

Precipitation: Normals

Precipitation: 2010 Actuals

Precipitation: 2011 Actuals

Precipitation: 2012 Actuals

Selecting species to explore

Comparing regionally

Comparing years for one species

Comparing individual plants in 2013

Comparing species in 2012

Leafing in quaking aspen ( )

Comparing Trillium West to East (2012)

Siberian Elm and Cottonwood fruiting

Monarch and two milkweed species

Saguaro and White-winged Dove

Three years of Valley Oak phenology in So Cal

Comparing Trillium West to East (2012)