SFF HDD and Flash Memories Coexistence or Competition? A Summary of IDEMA Symposium February 17, 2005 Westin Hotel, Santa Clara, CA Dr. Ed Grochowski DISKCON AP Rama Gardens Hotel Bangkok March 14, 2005 Orchid Country Club, Singapore March 16-17, 2005 Vs.

Symposium Objectives Review Technical Attributes of HDD and Flash Technologies Determine Present and Future Applications for Each What HDD FF Are Required To Meet Applications What Flash Products Are Required to Meet Applications Areas Where Each Will Compete Areas Where Each Will Coexist Areas Where Each Could Dominate Ed Grochowski

Scope of Study 1.Consumer Based Applications Digital Still Cameras Video Cameras Mobile phones MP3 Players GPS Games 2.Small FF HDD, 2.5 inch, 1.8 inch, 1.0 inch, 0.85 inch 3.Flash Capacities 4.Unit Prices and Projections Ed Grochowski

Why This Symposium? 1.Explosion of Storage For Consumer Based Applications 2.SFF HDD Have Made Inroads in Traditional Flash Territory 3.Demand For Higher Storage Capacities May Open New Opportunities For SFF HDD 4.Both Flash And SFF HDD’S Are Evolving 5.In Certain Applications Both Technologies Will Coexist Ed Grochowski

Areal Density, Gbits/inch 2 DRAM/Flash 25% CGR 60% CGR 1M 4M 16M 64M AREAL2005EGa.PRZ 100% CGR Year 25% = 2X per 3 years % CGR 256M Ed Grochowski 512M HDDHDD Projection Areal Density of HDD and DRAM/FLASH 40% CGR G 4G 2G 1G MLC NAND Flash } 0.001

A Clear Dichotomy has Emerged High Capacity $Lowest $/GB Form Factor 3.5 inch GB40 – 500 LxWxH5.8” x 4.0” x 1.0” Power (Idle) ~5.7 – 10 Watts Shock NonOp 350G/225G Operating ~55G Robust Mobility $Highest $/GB Form Factor 0.85 – 1.8 inch GB2 – 60 LxWxH 1.26”x0.94”x0.13” 2.76”x2.13”x0.28” Power (Write) <1.0 to 1.4 Watts Shock NonOp ~1500G Op 1000G – 500G John Buttress,IDC

Many Markets, Many Configurations required for HDD’s in Digital CE applications for next 3 years DVR Home Media Gaming MP3 Mobile Video Players Cell Phones Multi function devices Digital Cameras Digital Camcorders Auto Navigation Auto Entertainment 3.5" Ext 3.5" Hi Cap 3.5" LC 2.5" 1.8" 1"1" CF.85" Interfaces required: PATA, SATAUSB, CF, CEATA, 1394 Pat O’Malley, Seagate

HH Units TAM by Form Factor 1.8” Significant upside but limited growth High-end HH devices – photo MP3, Portable Media Player 1.0” 2hd Estimate 500% growth rate from 2004 to 2005 MP3 player explosion Market is still supply limited Mobile Phone FF 2.5G technology support Messaging Service(i.e. SMS) Started to adopt 3G technology which enables up to 2 Mbps transfer rate Estimate 60M units smart phone and 390M units of camera phone in 2005 Source: Seagate SMP,IDC Millions 1.8"1"Mobile phone Pat O’Malley, Seagate

John Osterhout, Hitachi GST

The Forest From The Trees HDD Unit TAM vs. NAND Unit Flash TAM Total NAND Flash Cards and NAND Systems, Million Units - SanDisk Estimates Jan05 HDD Unit Forecast – TrendFOCUS Apr ,000 1,200 1,400 1, Other Digital Audio USB Drives Mobile Phones DSC/DVC Million Units Total HDD Units Wes Brewer, SanDisk