The beginning of this year was disrupted by snow and cold weather. Schools were closed, people were advised not to travel and baboons were fed hot potatoes! But is it really that unusual?

In this piece from the Daily Telegraph the argument is made that the snow and cold is “nothing really to complain about” and that this hasn’t been “extreme weather”.

Pick a colour for your group. Are you red or yellow?

If you picked red, you must argue that the data shows that winters are getting colder and colder. If you picked yellow, you must argue that the data does not show that winters are getting colder. The Met Office has data showing the regional climate values for each month in the UK from 1914 to the present day. You can view the data for your region herehere

Up2d8 maths ’ s no joke! Teacher Notes

’s no joke! Introduction: What’s happening to the weather? Snow and ice caused chaos at the beginning of the year – schools were closed, people were advised not to travel, and baboons were fed hot potatoes - but, as always, there are claims that this is ‘nothing special’ and that people are overreacting. In this resource, students are presented with some raw data from the Met Office (maximum temperature and minimum temperature for eachraw data month and season since 1914) and, using this data, are asked to argue either that the data shows that the winters are getting colder, or that it shows that they are not getting colder. Content objectives: This context provides the opportunity for teachers and students to explore a number of objectives. Some that may be addressed are: calculate statistics for sets of discrete and continuous data, including with a calculator and spreadsheet; recognise when it is appropriate to use the range, mean, median and mode select, construct and modify, on paper and using ICT, suitable graphical representations to progress an enquiry and identify key features present in the data review interpretations and results of a statistical enquiry on the basis of discussions; communicate these interpretations and results using selected tables, graphs and diagrams compare two distributions using the range and one or more of the mode, median and mean. Process objectives: These will depend on the amount of freedom you allow your class with the activity. It might be worth considering how you’re going to deliver the activity and highlighting the processes that this will allow on the diagram below:

Activity: The activity gives students the opportunity to explore strategies to manipulate a large data set to back up a predetermined hypothesis. They are presented with temperature data for each month and each season for different regions of the UK from 1914 to the present day, and are asked to use this data either to back up or contradict the statement that winters are getting colder. This might take the form of a presentation, a newspaper article or a poster (or whatever you decide) and the data might be from your region, nationally or both. In the PowerPoint, the decision about whether to argue for or against is decided at random but you might decide that your class will all argue one way or the other, or allocate which way certain groups should argue. Differentiation: You may decide to change the level of challenge for your group. To make the task easier you could consider: reducing the amount of data, maybe just giving the data for winter or for selected months scaffolding the task – asking the students to calculate various averages and draw selected graphs first and to then use these to prove their point. To make the task more complex, you could consider: giving the students free access to the data to encourage them to use sampling techniques reducing the scaffolding for the task – leaving the students to decide independently how to go about convincing the group of their conclusions asking for a rigorous argument, maybe a letter to a newspaper or a presentation rather than the less formal poster. This resource is designed to be adapted to your requirements. Outcomes: You may want to consider what the outcome of the task will be and share this with students according to their ability. This task lends itself to a poster, a newspaper article, a presentation (maybe an assembly) or a debate in which students are encouraged to use data to convince others of the validity or otherwise of their argument. Working in groups: This activity lends itself to paired and small group work and, by encouraging students to work collaboratively, it is likely that you will allow them access to more of the key processes than if they were to work individually. You will need to think about how your class will work on this task. Will they work in pairs, threes or larger groups? If pupils are not used to working in groups in mathematics, you may wish to spend some time talking about their rules and procedures to maximise the effectiveness and engagement of pupils in group work (you may wish to look at the SNS Pedagogy and practice pack Unit 10: Guidance for groupwork). You may wish to encourage the groups to delegate different areas of responsibility to specific group members. Assessment: You may wish to consider how you will assess the task and how you will record your assessment. This could include developing the assessment criteria with your class. You might choose to focus on the content objectives or on the process objectives. You might decide that this activity lends itself to comment-only marking or to student self-assessment. If you decide that the outcome is to be a presentation or a poster, then you may find that this lends itself to peer assessment. If you use the APP model of assessment, then you might use this activity to help you in building a picture of your students’ understanding. Assessment criteria to focus on might be: understand and use the mode and range to describe sets of data (Handling Data level 4) understand and use the mean of discrete data and compare two simple distributions, using the range and one of mode, median or mean (Handling Data level 5) communicate interpretations and results of a statistical survey using selected tables, graphs and diagrams in support (Handling Data level 6) compare two or more distributions and make inferences, using the shape of the distributions and measures of average and range (Handling Data level 7).

Probing questions: You may wish to introduce some points into the discussion, which might include: do you need to use all of the data? If not, how will you select which data to use? how will you summarise the data? what strategies do you know to help you spot a trend in the data? what types of graph might show any trends? is there an exception to any of the trends? You will need: The PowerPoint presentation and the Met Office data, either on paper or virtually (depending on whether you want your class to work on paperMet Office data or to use ICT). There are four slides: The first two slides set the scene, showing scenes from this January and an article from the Daily Telegraph claiming that this weather was not exceptional. The third slide randomly decides whether the group will be arguing for or against there being a trend in the weather patterns. The final slide introduces the data and sets the task. Depending on the level of independence of your group, you may wish to introduce more scaffolding than is given in the slide.