22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Futures Studies: An Overview of Basic Concepts Dr. Wendy L. Schultz Infinite Futures Fulbright Lecturer, Finland Futures Research Centre

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures What do we...  See: the past, the present, trends.  Wonder: what might happen?  Fear: past disasters --> future crises.  Desire: past successes --> future goals.  Believe: who/what makes change?  DO: who/what could help us create change?

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Feelings and experiences: sources of ideas about the future History (experiences) Feelings about the future Image of the Possible Future outcomes were unexpected >>> uncertain, curious, or challenged, producing…> WILDLY DIFFERENT: TRANSFORMATIONAL outcomes were disasters or failures >>> scared (fear), worry, anxiety, producing…> NEGATIVE: NIGHTMARE outcomes were wonderful! successes! >>> hope, excitement, anticipation, producing…> POSITIVE: EVERYTHING GETS BETTER outcomes followed an expected pattern >>> security, stability, producing…> CONTINUITY: STAYS THE SAME

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Guidelines for thinking about the future...  Make NO PREDICTIONS;  Remember, there are NO FUTURE FACTS;  TOMORROW WILL BE NOTHING LIKE TODAY;  Question assumptions when you hear, “[..X..]” could *never* happen…”

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Futures Studies is… a transdisciplinary, systems-science-based approach to.. analyzing patterns of change in the past; identifying trends of change in the present; and extrapolating alternative scenarios of possible change in the future, in order to help people create the futures they most desire.

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Inter, trans, meta disciplinary: …etc. futures studies sociology history philosophy, political science economics systems science literature psychology international relations

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Alternative possible futures...  Reality is a non-linear -- i.e., chaotic -- system, and thus impossible to predict;  Possible futures emerge from the turbulent interplay of current trends and emerging issues of change. trends innovations revolutions, etc. possibility one possibility two possibility three …etc.

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures …alternative possible futures  A basic assumption of futures studies: not one future, but many possible futures;  of those possible futures, some are more probable than others -- evaluate changing probabilities by monitoring trend growth;  of those possible futures, some are more preferable than others -- evaluate preferability by dialogue within community.

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Alternative futures: possible, probable, and preferable possible futures probable futures preferable futures objective of futures studies: act to enhance the probability of our preferable futures.

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Futures Studies is….. NOT prediction, but EXPLORATION and PROVOCATION.

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Evaluating forecasts: Any useful statement about the future should seem to be ridiculous. -- Dator’s Axiom

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Five key components of applied futures research ID & Monitor Change Critique Implications Imagine Difference Envision Preferred Plan and Implement Identify patterns of change: trends in chosen variables, changes in cycles, and emerging issues of change. Examine primary, secondary, tertiary impacts; inequities in impacts; differential access, etc. Identify, analyze, and build alternative images of the future, or ’scenarios.’ Identify, analyze, and articulate images of preferred futures, or ’visions.’ Identify stakeholders, resources; clarify goals; design strategies; organize action; create change.

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures The context of applied futures research environmental social economic technological macro reality political organizational culture critical issue other systems profession, market, or field

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Identifying change... Current conditions; Cycles; Trends; Emerging issues of change; and Wild cards. Locate its source; Evaluate its likelihood; Monitor its growth; and Track its spread. Kinds of change…. …look everywhere!

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Environmental Scanning Primary futures tool for identifying and monitoring emergence, growth, and coalescence of change. Related to issues management and competitive intelligence. ”Environment” refers to the information environment – all media – and ”scanning” to the logically structured, iterative monitoring of selected information sources.

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Trends, emerging issues… and wild cards. WILDCARD!! TIME number of cases; degree of public awareness local; few cases; emerging issues global; multiple dispersed cases; trends and megatrends scientists; artists; radicals; lunatics specialists’ journals and websites layperson’s magazines, websites, documentaries newspapers, news magazines government institutions Mapping a trend’s diffusion into public awareness from its starting point as an emerging issue of change. adapted from J. Coates, Issues Management

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures …looking for impacts  How might our homes & families change?  How might our work change?  How might our hobbies & leisure differ?  How might we travel & communicate?  How might childhood & education differ?  How might our environment change?  How might government & economy differ?

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Emerging issues of change…  24/7/365: no home-office divide – but flexibility!;  By 2010, we talk to our computers, they talk back, and recognize us via biometrics;  By 2015, hyper-reality widespread;  By 2020, micromachines create “smart” materials;  By 2020, people are “globens” – world citizens;  By 2020, routine, computer language translation;

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures …emerging issues of change, cont’d.  By 2025, a manned mission to Mars;  By 2030, anti-aging advances let us live from as “the same age;”  3-D scanning, faxing, and “printing:” the home fabrication unit.  Continued global warming, with sea-level rise;  Loss of biodiversity, especially of marine life.

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Futures Wheels: Workshop Instructions  Enter your assigned change in the inner circle of your worksheet.  Everyone take five minutes by themselves to imagine possible impacts of this change over the next fifteen years.  Share your individual lists within your group. Which of these are immediate, or primary, impacts? Write those down next to the appropriate “spoke”.  Now consider each primary impact, one by one. Brainstorm two or three impacts it will have, and map those, connecting each to its primary impact.

change work? hobbies? education? home/ families? travel? communications? economy? environment? Futures Wheel primary effects secondary effects

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Existing images of alternative futures: sources  Individuals… what do people think?  e.g., Surveys, Ethnographic Futures Research, etc.  Culture... what do religions imply? political ideologies? what do artists imagine? writers? advertisers? other artifacts?  Content analysis; hermeneutic analysis, etc.  Forecasts… what trends have researchers extrapolated? what scenarios have futurists built?  Secondary analysis of existing research and data.

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Scenarios: imagining difference through structured processes.  Images of alternative possible futures;  Based on trends and emerging issues;  Exploratory, NOT predictive;  Present both opportunities and threats;  Real, NOT ideal;  Used to create contingency plans.

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Effective scenarios…. provoke ideas! Vividly, boldly portray difference; Clearly identify the time horizon; Explain how the change unfolded – tell the story of trends and impacts growing over time; Are written in the present tense, as if the future were happening now; Contain a few transformed elements of the ”past” – 2002 – to contrast the ”past” with the scenario’s present day.

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Scenarios vs. visions Scenarios are futures for the HEAD: they allow us to explore our assumptions about possibilities. Visions are futures for the HEART: they allow us to voice our most deeply felt values and goals.

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Images of the future: a continuum of infinite possibilities all possible images of the future dystopias nightmares utopias visions scenarios: downside scenarios: PTE scenarios: upside wild cards!

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Effective visions….inspire action! Vividly, boldly portray hopes, ideals, and values; Clearly identify the time horizon; Describe a ”future history” of actions and projects that created the improved ”present;” Are written in the present tense, as if the preferred future were real now; Contain a few transformed elements of the ”past” – 2002 – to contrast the ”past” with the vision’s improved present day.

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline, Organizational Capacity for Vision Creation telling selling testing consulting CO-CREATING required capacity for direction- setting and learning degree of active staff involvement LOW HIGH

22 March 2002copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Implementation... Creating a timeline of milestones bridging from the imperfect present to a better future; Identifying stakeholders, allies, and collaborators; Inventorying resources; and Marshalling commitment to change.