Fifth Tri-State Weather Conference Dr. David A. Robinson Professor, Department of Geography & New Jersey State Climatologist Rutgers University Western Connecticut State University October 18, 2014 Exploring Tri-State Climate Variability and Change Landing Lane, Piscataway, NJ 1 May 2014

NJclimate.org Outline for this morning 1. Greetings from the ONJSC 2. Climate system 3. Climate past to present 4. Causes of climate change 5. Our climate future

NJclimate.org Office of the NJ State Climatologist Data Information Knowledge Decision NJclimate.org

NJ Weather & Climate Network NJweather.org

NJclimate.org

Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network: 7AM 15 July – 7AM 16 July, 2014

NJclimate.org Outline for this morning 1. Greetings from the ONJSC 2. Climate system 3. Climate past to present 4. Causes of climate change 5. Our climate future

NJclimate.org Weather – Climate “Players”

NJclimate.org The big picture: a tri-state squeeze play

NJclimate.org Outline for this morning 1. Greetings from the ONJSC 2. Climate system 3. Climate past to present 4. Causes of climate change 5. Our climate future

NJclimate.org Climate past

NJclimate.org Climate is your personality………. Weather is your mood……….

NJclimate.org Plenty of moodiness……….

NJclimate.org 1938 Hurricane Wareham, MA Providence, RI Long Island

NJclimate.org Nor'easter: March 1962 Harvey Cedars

NJclimate.org 1960s Drought

NJclimate.org Floyd: 16 September 1999 Bound Brook New Brunswick

NJclimate.org December 2010

NJclimate.org Manville, NJ Irene 29 August 2011 Windham, NY Weston, CT

NJclimate.org Irene rainfall: 28 August 2011

NJclimate.org 29 October 2011 snow storm Bergenfield Wantage 30 October

NJclimate.org Sandy Maximum Wind Gusts Oct 29-30, 2012

NJclimate.org Hoboken

NJclimate.org Mantoloking

NJclimate.org Holgate Photo: Will Randall-Goodwin

NJclimate.org Hundreds of thousands of trees down……

NJclimate.org Personality adjustment……….

NJclimate.org Human influences NOAA NCDC

NJclimate.org Indicators of change from multiple data sets National Assessment, 2014 (updated from Kennedy et al., 2010)

NJclimate.org Seasonal Snow Anomalies (snowcover.org)

NJclimate.org Stroeve et al EOS 2008 Arctic Sea Ice

NJclimate.org Ice loss from the two polar ice sheets Based on GRACE satellite observations From Wouters et al, 2013

NJclimate.org U.S. precipitation change Map: compared to Graphs: Decades Compared to National Assessment, 2014

NJclimate.org U.S. temperature change Map: compared to Graphs: Decades Compared to National Climate Assessment, 2014

NJclimate.org Increase in frost-free season length National Climate Assessment, relative to

NJclimate.org Global land & ocean temperature anomalies: deg C/century

NJclimate.org Trends in annual mean Connecticut temperature; F 52° F data source: National Climatic Data Center

NJclimate.org Unusually warm and cold months in NJ

NJclimate.org

Offshore Water Temperatures: August

NJclimate.org Trends in annual mean New York precipitation: ” 50”

NJclimate.org Unusually wet and dry months in NJ

NJclimate.org Change in amount of precipitation from very heavy events National Climate Assessment, 2014 Percent change 1958 – 2011 Very heavy equals the heaviest 1% of precipitation events Recent decades are also higher than the first half of the 20 th century

NJclimate.org Sea level rise: global and regional: 1880-present 1.7 mm/y NJ

NJclimate.org Local sea level rise and tidal flooding Union of Concerned Scientists, 2014

NJclimate.org Outline for this morning 1. Greetings from the ONJSC 2. Climate system 3. Climate past to present 4. Causes of climate change 5. Our climate future

NJclimate.org Is climate presently changing in tri-state & elsewhere? Preponderance of evidence suggests climate change is occurring and humans are responsible for a significant portion of recent changes 1. theory 2. observations 3. models

NJclimate.org Theory Modeling

NJclimate.org National Climate Assessment, 2014 adapted from Huber and Knutti, 2012 Human and natural influences on 20 th century global temperature

NJclimate.org Surface air temperature and solar energy (from satellite & proxy sources) 1976-present National Assessment, 2014 source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC

NJclimate.org Outline for this morning 1. Greetings from the ONJSC 2. Climate system 3. Climate past to present 4. Causes of climate change 5. Our climate future

NJclimate.org  Rising temperatures  Steady or increasing precipitation  Increasing variability and extremes - storms, flood, drought, heat…….  Rising sea level The tri-state’s future climate

NJclimate.org Changing Annual and Seasonal Temperatures minus North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program Kunkel et al. NOAA Tech. Report NESDIS 142-9, 2013

NJclimate.org Changing Annual and Seasonal Precipitation minus Kunkel et al. NOAA Tech. Report NESDIS 142-9, 2013 North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

NJclimate.org Projected increases in the number of days over 90 deg F National Assessment

NJclimate.org More major storms ahead? …. future destructive storms are to be expected…… ……..with the atmosphere and ocean becoming primed for a greater frequency of such events.

NJclimate.org A change in extremes? 17 September April March August 2011 Manville # 2 crest 21.0’ (nearby Blackwells Mills: 1921-present) # 3 crest 19.2’ # 6 crest 16.2’ (1 May 2014 #7 crest 15.9’) # 1 crest 21.2’

NJclimate.org

Tidal flooding: Events per year present 2030 and 2045 Union of Concerned Scientists, 2014

NJclimate.org Summing up: Be it weather moodiness or long-term climate personality changes, a dull moment is rare to find. There is abundant evidence that the atmosphere, oceans and continents are primed to produce even more action, more variability, more change in the decades ahead. Continued vigilance is required to monitor, understand and predict the future behavior of the climate system.

NJclimate.org Thanks Dave’s first weather observations Tenafly, NJ: circa some time in the 20 th century

NJclimate.org