Responding to Climate Change Myths John Cook Date: 14 July 2013

One Model of the Human Brain

A More Accurate Model of the Human Brain

The Familiarity Backfire Effect

Danger, Will Robinson! Approaching myth!

The Overkill Backfire Effect A simple myth is more cognitively attractive than an over-complicated correction (Schwarz et al 2007)

The Overkill Backfire Effect A simple myth is more cognitively attractive than an over-complicated correction (Schwarz et al 2007)

“I didn’t have time to write a short letter, so I wrote a long one instead.” MARK TWAIN

The Worldview Backfire Effect

One last psychological pitfall

An Alternative Explanation

Fight Sticky Ideas With Stickier Ideas

Questions?

Communicating “Sticky” Ideas Sticky ideas are: Simple Unexpected Concrete Credible Emotional Story SUCCES

Sticky Ideas vs Mathematics Sticky ideas are: Simple Unexpected Concrete Credible Emotional Story Climate Science is: Complicated Perplexing Abstract Attacked Detached Numbers SUCCES

“New data released two weeks ago shows the pause in global warming has now lasted 16 years.” Andrew Bolt

Is global warming happening?

The most dangerous climate misconception “There is no scientific consensus that humans are causing global warming”

Cook et al 2013

The importance of consensus Ding et al 2011 found that people who believe scientists disagree on global warming are less likely to support climate policy McCright et al 2013: “Climate change communicators should therefore identify opportunities and employ techniques to effectively counter the denial machine’s campaign of challenging the scientific consensus. Overcoming its success in generating belief that scientists do not agree about anthropogenic global warming seems to be crucial for increasing public support for emissions reduction policies.”

Media Coverage of The Consensus Project

“97% of scientists, including, by the way, some who originally disputed the data, have now put that to rest. They’ve acknowledged the planet is warming and human activity is contributing to it.” PRESIDENT OBAMA

Questions? Examples of sticky climate messages?

1.Fake Experts 5 Techniques of Consensus Denial 2. Logical fallacies 5. Conspiracy Theories 3. Impossible Expectations 4. Cherry Picking FLICC

Consensus

Fake Experts

“The Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, the OISM, released the names of some 31,478 scientists who signed a petition rejecting the claims of human-caused global warming.” Dana Rohrabacher, Republican Congressman Fake Experts

Logical Fallacies Examples of logical fallacies: ad hominem attacks, strawman arguments, misrepresentation. Most popular climate myth uses the Non Sequitur fallacy: “it does not follow”. The premise does not lead to the conclusion. Example: “climate has changed naturally in the past therefore current warming must be natural”.

PremiseConclusion

“The paleoclimate record shouts out to us that, far from being self- stabilizing, the Earth's climate system is an ornery beast which overreacts to even small nudges.” Wally Broeker

Impossible Expectations Demanding unrealistic standards of proof before acting on the science

“0.3% consensus, not 97.1% The latest paper apparently showing 97% endorsement of a consensus that more than half of recent global warming was anthropogenic really shows only 0.3% endorsement of that now-dwindling consensus.” CHRISTOPHER MONCKTON

Cherry Picking

Consensus

Conspiracy!

Climategate

Two distinctive traits of conspiracy theories: Conspiracy Theory 1. Ascribe omnipotent power to the conspiracy

Two distinctive traits of conspiracy theories: Conspiracy Theory 1. Ascribe omnipotent power to the conspiracy 2. Evidence against the conspiracy is proof of the conspiracy

Dana Rohrabacher, Republican Congressman “Even though hand-picked panels of their peers held a “kangaroo court” and loudly proclaimed that there had been no wrongdoing, public confidence was justifiably shaken.”

Fight sticky ideas with stickier ideas SUCCES FLICC Summary (Simple, Unexpected, Concrete, Credible, Emotional, Story) (Fake Experts, Logical Fallacies, Impossible Expectations, Cherry Picking, Conspiracy Theories)

John Cook Global Change Institute, University of Queensland Web: