ASB/BNPP Pantropic Analysis Kate Sebastian IFPRI

Stratification of the pan-tropics A framework and a collection of databases for broadly identifying critical or priority areas and extrapolating research findings Improve the spatial characterization of the focus area in terms of … Biodiversity-rich habitats Physical hydrology Human population Forest transition areas Phase I Results Phase II Activities

Climate based (AEZ) Stratification Warm humid and subhumid tropics Source: IFPRI (2001) based on FAO/IIASA GAEZ Database (1999). What defines the limits of the pantropic focus area?

Terrestrial Biomes by Realm Source: WWF Global 200 Ecoregions (WWF 2001). Notes: The Biomes displayed are the biomes that are present in the warm humid and subhumid tropics. Neotropical Afrotropical Indomalay Australasia Biodiversity based Strati- fication WWF Terrestrial Ecoregions  Realms (8)  Biomes (14)  Ecoregions (220)

Forest Biomes by Realm Source: WWF Global 200 Ecoregions (WWF 2001). Notes: The Biomes displayed are only forest biomes that are present in the warm humid and subhumid tropics. Neotropical Afrotropical Indomalay Australasia Why are these different?

What did/can we learn from these stratifications and other global datasets?

What share of the tropics is in the climate derived focus area?

How many people live in the biodiversity derived focus area? Warm Tropics: 1.1 billion million

Phase II : Improve the spatial characterization of the focus area and define critical areas in terms of … Biodiversity-rich habitats Physical hydrology Human population Forest transition areas

Global 200 Ecoregions Within moist broadleaf forest biome by biogeographical realm Source: WWF Global 200 Ecoregions (WWF 2001). Each polygon represents a Global 200 ecoregion of which any portion falls within the tropics focus area. Critical Areas based on potential threats to biodiversity

How much of the focus area is considered of biodiversity importance? Total AEZ Focus Area Global 200* Total Area Global 200* Area within focus region Share of focus area in Global 200* Share of Global 200* in focus area (sq km) Central America & Caribbean867,212315,48389, %28.3% South America10,511,0016,686,8965,313, %79.5% Sub-Saharan Africa7,915,3632,797,9172,371, %84.7% Mainland Asia2,261,4733,120,7851,352, %43.3% Insular SE Asia2,319,9021,677,8021,616, %96.3% Other77,75137,19923, %63.7% Total23,952,70214,636,08210,766, %73.6% * includes only those Global 200 ecoregions that coincide with the focus region

Where are the ASB sites located in relation to the Global 200 Ecoregions & Biological Distinctiveness Index What do the Global 200 characteristics tell us about biodiversity?

Source: IFPRI reclassification of SLCR classes from Global Land Cover Classification Database (GLCCD – USGS/EDC 2000). Source: Sebastian Does land cover help us understand patterns of conversion?

What is the land cover for the pantropics by region by rainfall?

What is the land cover for the ‘target’ biome?

Can we understand the extent of forest conversion?

Source: IFPRI reclassification of SLCR classes from Global Land Cover Classification Database (GLCCD – USGS/EDC 2000). Can we define transition areas using coarse resolution satellite data?

Hydro1k Basins Warm humid and subhumid tropics Source: Hydro1k (USGS EDC 2001). Hydro- logical function: Basin extent

Terrain Type Warm humid and subhumid tropics Source: A. Nelson, World Bank (2001). Roughness indicator

Basins by Terrain type Warm humid and subhumid tropics Source: Hydro1k – USGS EDC 2001; Terrain type: A. Nelson – World Bank (2001). Note: The shading differentiates between the upper and lower catchments of the basins. Upper and lower catchments

Share of Basin Area by Terrain Type Mouth of the Amazon Andes – down to west coast

Critical Hydrological Function Potential negative impacts on the flood regimes around major urban areas, based on..  Watersheds (nested within Basins)  Urban population by watershed  Number of cities in each watershed

Latin American Watersheds Warm humid and subhumid tropics

Administrative density surface – no detail in urban areas Combined urban & administrative density surface Improved dataset for understanding extent and density of human settlements

Comments Useful to select characterization variables that are hierarchical (e.g., basins/ watersheds, biomes/ecoregions, LCCS) Need to assess better what (if any) hydrological functions can be represented at this scale Need to integrate pan-tropic analysis with sub-regional studies (Mesoamerica, Mekong) to address some of these questions and comments

Questions Are there better variables/approaches we could use in the stratification or in the identification of critical areas? Can this scale of analysis be useful in linking cross-site or sub-regional studies? How will we successfully integrate across teams?