Dividend Growth Investing Cambridge Style Stephen Groff Principal & Portfolio Manager Bob Swanson Principal & Chief Market Strategist
Manager checklist ETF Manager 1 Manager 2 Manager alignment Net worth and compensation aligned Active share 88-98% Upside / downside capture See upcoming slide CRM II and the impact on their business Why we are a trusted & aligned partner to help manage through the transition Why we are actually different (active share & quality of returns)
The Cambridge philosophy Active management Conviction in what we own and why we own it Not index focused Nearly 100 years of diversified investment experience on the team Absolute return, downside focused Primary focus is understanding what can go wrong If you invest in good companies the upside takes care of itself Avoiding big losses is the best way to grow wealth over time We are personally aligned Significant holders of our funds We lose money, our pay goes down Focus on absolute returns - Why we are different, summarize what we offer. 3
The Cambridge suite of products Small/mid-cap equity Cambridge Canadian Growth Companies Cambridge Growth Companies Cambridge Pure Canadian Equity Equity Cambridge Canadian Equity Cambridge American Equity Cambridge Global Equity Dividend income Potential risk Cambridge Canadian Dividend Cambridge U.S. Dividend Cambridge Global Dividend Diversified income & balanced Cambridge High Income Cambridge Canadian Asset Allocation Potential return 4
Macro outlook and insights Summary Continued appetite for income and safety Equities are your new yield investment We favour U.S. equity and U.S.-dollar exposure
U.S. 10-year bond yields Source: FactSet
TSX dividend yields and Canadian 10-year bond yields Source: FactSet
S&P 500 dividend yields and U.S. five-year bond yields Source: FactSet
Fund flows: stocks vs. bonds Source: FactSet
People have been chasing yield High-dividend stocks are the same value as the index for the first time in history
High yield vs. a better company AGF CI Financial 9.1% Dividend yield 3.5% 118% 5-year average payout ratio 70% 1% 5-year average dividend growth 8% -0.2% 5-year average change in share count -2.7% 5% 5-year total return 111% 4% Dividend Aristocrats Index weighting Not in the index Source: Bloomberg, September 2014
Not just about ‘high yield’ Source: ISI Group
Where to find quality dividend candidates Number of companies with consecutive years of dividend growth Number of companies Source: FactSet, August 2014
USD index long-run waves: get long the $ U.S. Federal Reserve’s broad real trade-weighted dollar index since Bretton Woods 17 years 16 years Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, BMO FX Strategy The USD has had about 2.5 cycles in 40 years of floating rates The apparent bottom of the last cycle was 32 months ago and since then the USD has risen a mild 6% The index spending two to four years ‘bumping along the bottom’ before accelerating higher is consistent with previous dollar cycles
Yield today’s reality Past Future Yield investing was “easy” It won’t be as easy going forward Falling interesting rates Rising interest rates Compressing spreads Spreads / defaults at historical lows Rising payout ratios Elevated payout ratios Rising valuation High valuations But your clients still need income … so what is the solution? 15
Cambridge investment philosophy Core holdings Management aligned with shareholders Strong capital allocation Competitive advantage Allison Transmission First Republic Grainger Home Depot Norfolk Southern Thomson Reuters US Bancorp Non-core holdings Information edge Cyclical recovery Emerging profitability Thematic investing Swift Transportation Fluor Cash Attractive risk/reward 16
How we think about a business Know your business Reinvest in the business Buybacks Dividends Supports future growth “Total shareholder yield”
Different geographies + same philosophy = consistent results Gross returns of Canadian and U.S. underlying holdings in Cambridge Canadian Equity Corporate Class relative to index returns 65.3% 63.0% 50.0% 30.9% 29.4% 23.4% 14.4% 10.3% Source: CI Investments, February 2014
Managing the downside is critical Rolling one-year returns of underlying holdings in Cambridge Canadian Equity Corporate Class vs. TSX, April 2011 to March 2014 Frequency (as percent of total) Downside protection Source: CI Investments
How we find and analyze potential investments Screens Conferences Company meetings Sell side discussions Analyze Public filings (10Ks, Proxies etc.) Transcripts and presentations Site visits In-house management meetings Conferences Financial modelling and analysis Competitor / supplier discussions It is a time-intensive process to vet business models and build relationships with management teams. Our relationships and consistent investment process is a competitive advantage. 20
Cambridge is not benchmark focused Sector Cambridge Canadian Dividend iShares S&P/TSX High Dividend Difference U.S. ETF Cash 10 - 11 Bonds Financials 21 31 -10 20 7 13 Energy -18 5 14 -9 Materials 6 1 2 -2 Consumer discretionary 8 18 4 staples 12 25 -19 Information technology -3 Telecom services -12 Industrials 27 26 Health care 3 19 -16 Utilities 9 -5 As you can see we do take advantage of those opportunities. Walk through sector spreads, absolute very balanced. Willingness to raise cash when opportunities aren’t there. Source: Bloomberg, September 2014
Dividend investing Cambridge style Cambridge U.S. Dividend Fund characteristics August 2014 Number of holdings 28 Average dividend yield 2.0% 3-year dividend growth 16.0% Change in shares* -0.01% Payout ratio 37.7% Cambridge Canadian Dividend Fund characteristics August 2014 Number of holdings 32 Average dividend yield 2.5% 3-year dividend growth 17.8% Change in shares* -0.02% Payout ratio 51.0% Cambridge Global Dividend Fund characteristics August 2014 Number of holdings 52 Average dividend yield 2.5% 3-year dividend growth 11.2% Change in shares* 0.0% Payout ratio 42.8% *3 or 5 years depending on history, adjusted for M+A Source: Bloomberg
Cambridge is not benchmark focused Cambridge Canadian Dividend Top holdings as at August 31, 2014 Intact Financial 5.3% Loblaw 4.7% PrairieSky Royalty 4.4% US Bancorp Granite REIT 3.9% TransForce 3.6% Thomson Reuters 3.3% ITC Holdings 3.2% Microsoft 3.1% Agrium 3.0% Total 38.9% Cambridge U.S. Dividend Top holdings as at August 31, 2014 Norfolk Southern 5.3% US Bancorp First Republic Bank 5.2% Thomson Reuters 5.1% Home Depot 4.5% Adecco 4.4% Allison Transmission Holdings 4.0% Microsoft 3.9% United Parcel Service Anheuser-Busch InBev Total 45.3% -Same with the top ten. You probably see a number of names you recognize but the top ten is, I believe. very different from your typical manager. Very different from the TSX and TSX 60. Same with the fund on the right. I will discuss this fund later, it is more small/midcap focused and again, you can see the range of names represented there. Very unique funds with an eclectic mix of companies. So we have flexibility and we are willing to take advantage of it. We are not scared to go against the herd and we are not scared to look different from the benchmark. Source: CI Investments
The Cambridge suite of products Small/mid-cap equity Cambridge Canadian Growth Companies Cambridge Growth Companies Cambridge Pure Canadian Equity Equity Cambridge Canadian Equity Cambridge American Equity Cambridge Global Equity Dividend income Potential risk Cambridge Canadian Dividend Cambridge U.S. Dividend Cambridge Global Dividend Diversified income & balanced Cambridge High Income Cambridge Canadian Asset Allocation Potential return 24
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Thank you FOR ADVISOR USE ONLY – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO CLIENTS Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Unless otherwise indicated and except for returns for periods less than one year, the indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in security value. All performance data assume reinvestment of all distributions or dividends and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. ®CI Investments, the CI Investments design and Cambridge are registered trademarks of CI Investments Inc. Cambridge Global Asset Management is a business name of CI Investments Inc. used in connection with its subsidiary, CI Global Investments Inc. Certain portfolio managers of Cambridge Global Asset Management are registered with CI Investments Inc. This communication is published by CI as a general source of information and is not intended to provide personal legal, accounting, investment or tax advice. Facts and data provided by CI and other sources are believed to be reliable when posted; however, CI cannot guarantee that they are accurate or complete or that they will be current at all times. CI and its affiliates will not be responsible in any manner for direct, indirect, special or consequential damages howsoever caused, arising out of the use of this presentation. In summary, we have a team that I believe is here to work for the clients and is aligned with the fundholders. In a continuously volatile equity environment, active management and the willingness and ability to look different from the bench gives you more opportunity to protect and growth capital for fundholders, which is what we believe is our job. Thank you for your time, I would like to open it up to questions.
Appendix – Cambridge performance Performance as at August 31, 2014 1 year 3 year 5 year Since inception Cambridge Canadian Equity Corporate Class 23.0% 18.9% 15.1% 8.9%* Cambridge Canadian Asset Allocation Corporate Class 15.9% 9.6% 10.1% 6.2%* Cambridge Canadian Dividend Fund 27.3% 10.4% 11.4% 8.1% Cambridge Canadian Growth Companies Fund 30.5% 32.8% n/a 28.0%** Cambridge Pure Canadian Equity Fund 39.3% 33.7% 28.3%** Cambridge Global Dividend Fund 18.0% 16.4% Cambridge Global Equity Corporate Class 20.3% 17.4% 11.5% 7.1%* Cambridge High Income Fund 16.8% 10.3% 12.4% 10.7% Cambridge U.S. Dividend Fund 13.1% 6.1% Cambridge American Equity Fund 26.6% 18.5% 12.2% 7.1% *Dec. 31, 2007; **Feb. 15, 2011; Jul. 31, 2013; Jul. 2, 2004; May 25, 1989; Feb. 1, 2005; June 14, 2006 Source: RBC Investor & Treasury Services, August 31, 2014