RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION after the PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE CHOOSING OPTIONS THAT WILL FACILITATE LONG-TERM RECOVERY THE OCTOBER 8, 2005 DISASTER

OCTOBER 8, 2005 PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE

LONG-TERM RECOVERY NEEDS AFTER PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE  NEED: 2 TO 3 MILLION NEW DWELLINGS THAT ARE EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT.  NEED: NEW SCHOOLS THAT ARE EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT.  NEED: NEW HOSPITALS THAT ARE EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT.  NEED: INFRASTRUCTURE THAT IS EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT.

GOALGOAL  TO MARSHAL AND INTEGRATE THE COMMUNITY’S STAPLE FORCES,..  …GIVING ALL SECTORS EQUITY IN DESIGNING PROCESSES FOR BECOMING EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT.  TO MARSHAL AND INTEGRATE THE COMMUNITY’S STAPLE FORCES,..  …GIVING ALL SECTORS EQUITY IN DESIGNING PROCESSES FOR BECOMING EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT.

OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES  TO BECOME RESILIENT TO GROUND SHAKING, LANDSLIDES, AND AFTERSHOCKS  TO ADOPT AND IMPLEMENT PUBLIC POLICY MANDATES FOR PREVENMTION, MITIGATION, PREPAREDNESS, EMERGENCY RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION

OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES  USE STATE-OF- ART TOOLS FOR ASSESSING HAZARDS AND RISK (E.G., GROUND SHAKING MAPS AND HAZUS )  USE PROVEN TECHNOLOGY FOR REDUCING VULNERABILITY IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT (E.G., ENERGY DISSIPATION)

PROCESSES FOR BECOMING EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT  INCREASED PUBLIC AWARENESS  IMPROVED PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING  EXPANDED MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS  INCREASED PUBLIC AWARENESS  IMPROVED PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING  EXPANDED MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS  MODERN BUILDING CODES FOR NEW BUILDINGS  MODERN STANDARDS FOR NEW INFRASTRUCTURE  STRENGTHENING AND RETROFIT FOR EXISTING STRUCTURES  EXPANDED INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION  MODERN BUILDING CODES FOR NEW BUILDINGS  MODERN STANDARDS FOR NEW INFRASTRUCTURE  STRENGTHENING AND RETROFIT FOR EXISTING STRUCTURES  EXPANDED INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

STARTING POINTS  IN-COUNTRY BASIC AND APPLIED RESEARCH  LESSONS FROM THE OCTOBER 8, 2005 DISASTER  IN-COUNTRY BASIC AND APPLIED RESEARCH  LESSONS FROM THE OCTOBER 8, 2005 DISASTER  MAPS  INFORMATION  GUIDELINES FOR APPLICATIONS BY EMERGENCY MANAGERS, BUILDING OFFICIALS, AND URBAN PLANNERS  MAPS  INFORMATION  GUIDELINES FOR APPLICATIONS BY EMERGENCY MANAGERS, BUILDING OFFICIALS, AND URBAN PLANNERS

LESSONS FROM PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE  THE EARTHQUAKE OCCURRED ALONG THE MAIN BOUNDARY THRUST ZONE (MBT).  THE MBT RUNS ALONG THE HIMALAYAN ARC FOR ABOUT 2,500 KM..

LESSONS FROM PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE  CONSTRUCTION WAS MAINLY CONCENTRATED ON THE FLOOD- PLAIN DEPOSITS OF THE NEEHLAN, JAHLUM, AND KUNHAR RIVERS.  BUILDINGS IM MUZAFFARABAD SITED ON SAND AND GRAVEL DEPOSITS WERE SEVERELY DAMAGED.  BUILDINGS SITED ON ROCK WERE NOT SEVERELY DAMAGED.

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS HAZARD MAPS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE PREVENTION/MITIGATION PREPAREDNESS EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION RISK MANAGEMENT

EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS MODEL EXPOSURE MODEL VULNERABILTY MODEL SEISMOTECTONIC SETTING LOCATION OF STRUCTURE QUALITY OF DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION RESISTANCE TO LATERAL FORCES IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF STRUCTURE POLITICAL PROCESS ACCEPTABLE RISK MITIGATION COSTS EXPERIENCE AND RESEARCH DAMAGE ALDORITHM INCORPORATE NEW KNOWLEDGE INSPECTION AND REGULATION ADOPTION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF PUBLIC POLICIES ASSESSMENT OF RISK

OPTIONS FOR EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE WHAT IS THE BENEFIT/COST OF EACH ONE? HOW QUICKLY CAN EACH OPTION BE IMPLEMENTED? WHAT IS THE BENEFIT/COST OF EACH ONE? HOW QUICKLY CAN EACH OPTION BE IMPLEMENTED?

BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST BUILDING CODE WITH SEISMIC DESIGN PROVISIONS BUILDING CODE WITH SEISMIC DESIGN PROVISIONS PREVENTS COLLAPSE AND REDUCES LOSS OF LIFE AND DAMAGE PREVENTS COLLAPSE AND REDUCES LOSS OF LIFE AND DAMAGE 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000 BUILDING CODE WITH SEISMIC DESIGN PROVISIONS BUILDING CODE WITH SEISMIC DESIGN PROVISIONS PREVENTS COLLAPSE AND REDUCES LOSS OF LIFE AND DAMAGE PREVENTS COLLAPSE AND REDUCES LOSS OF LIFE AND DAMAGE 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000

BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST STANDARDS FOR LIFELINE SYSTEMS STANDARDS FOR LIFELINE SYSTEMS PROTECTS COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTS COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000 STANDARDS FOR LIFELINE SYSTEMS STANDARDS FOR LIFELINE SYSTEMS PROTECTS COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTS COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000

BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST DEMOLITION OF COLLAPSE HAZARD BUILDINGS DEMOLITION OF COLLAPSE HAZARD BUILDINGS PREVENT COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF LIFE PREVENT COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF LIFE 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000 DEMOLITION OF COLLAPSE HAZARD BUILDINGS DEMOLITION OF COLLAPSE HAZARD BUILDINGS PREVENT COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF LIFE PREVENT COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF LIFE 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000

BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST SEISMIC ZONATION SEISMIC ZONATION AVOIDS LOCATIONS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG SHAKING, SURFACE FAULTING, SOIL AMPLIFICATION, AND SOIL FAILURE AVOIDS LOCATIONS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG SHAKING, SURFACE FAULTING, SOIL AMPLIFICATION, AND SOIL FAILURE 1 < BENEFIT/COST < < BENEFIT/COST < 100 SEISMIC ZONATION SEISMIC ZONATION AVOIDS LOCATIONS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG SHAKING, SURFACE FAULTING, SOIL AMPLIFICATION, AND SOIL FAILURE AVOIDS LOCATIONS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG SHAKING, SURFACE FAULTING, SOIL AMPLIFICATION, AND SOIL FAILURE 1 < BENEFIT/COST < < BENEFIT/COST < 100

BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST RETROFIT AND STRENGTHENING RETROFIT AND STRENGTHENING PREVENT COLLAPSE; ELIMINATE VULNERABILITIES; REDUCE DAMAGE PREVENT COLLAPSE; ELIMINATE VULNERABILITIES; REDUCE DAMAGE 1 < BENEFIT/COST < < BENEFIT/COST < 100 RETROFIT AND STRENGTHENING RETROFIT AND STRENGTHENING PREVENT COLLAPSE; ELIMINATE VULNERABILITIES; REDUCE DAMAGE PREVENT COLLAPSE; ELIMINATE VULNERABILITIES; REDUCE DAMAGE 1 < BENEFIT/COST < < BENEFIT/COST < 100

BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST EDUCATION AND TRAINING TO IMPLEMENT CHANGE EDUCATION AND TRAINING TO IMPLEMENT CHANGE EXPANDS PROFESSIONAL AND POLITICAL CAPACITY EXPANDS PROFESSIONAL AND POLITICAL CAPACITY 1 < BENEFIT/COST < < BENEFIT/COST < 100 EDUCATION AND TRAINING TO IMPLEMENT CHANGE EDUCATION AND TRAINING TO IMPLEMENT CHANGE EXPANDS PROFESSIONAL AND POLITICAL CAPACITY EXPANDS PROFESSIONAL AND POLITICAL CAPACITY 1 < BENEFIT/COST < < BENEFIT/COST < 100

BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST SOIL REMEDIATION SOIL REMEDIATION PREVENTS LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES, AND LATERAL SPREADS PREVENTS LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES, AND LATERAL SPREADS 1 < BENEFIT/COST < < BENEFIT/COST < 100 SOIL REMEDIATION SOIL REMEDIATION PREVENTS LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES, AND LATERAL SPREADS PREVENTS LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES, AND LATERAL SPREADS 1 < BENEFIT/COST < < BENEFIT/COST < 100

BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST PERFORMANCE BASED DESIGN PERFORMANCE BASED DESIGN PREVENTS LOSS OF FUNCTION AND USE OF MOST IMPORTANT STRUCTURES PREVENTS LOSS OF FUNCTION AND USE OF MOST IMPORTANT STRUCTURES 1 < BENEFIT/COST < < BENEFIT/COST < 100 PERFORMANCE BASED DESIGN PERFORMANCE BASED DESIGN PREVENTS LOSS OF FUNCTION AND USE OF MOST IMPORTANT STRUCTURES PREVENTS LOSS OF FUNCTION AND USE OF MOST IMPORTANT STRUCTURES 1 < BENEFIT/COST < < BENEFIT/COST < 100

BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST URBAN AND LAND- USE PLANNING URBAN AND LAND- USE PLANNING FACILITATES AVOIDANCE STRATEGIES FACILITATES AVOIDANCE STRATEGIES 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 10 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 10 URBAN AND LAND- USE PLANNING URBAN AND LAND- USE PLANNING FACILITATES AVOIDANCE STRATEGIES FACILITATES AVOIDANCE STRATEGIES 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 10 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 10

BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST DISASTER SCENARIONS DISASTER SCENARIONS FACILITATES PREPARATION FOR EXPECTED AND UNEXPECTED FACILITATES PREPARATION FOR EXPECTED AND UNEXPECTED 1< BENEFIT/COST < 10 1< BENEFIT/COST < 10 DISASTER SCENARIONS DISASTER SCENARIONS FACILITATES PREPARATION FOR EXPECTED AND UNEXPECTED FACILITATES PREPARATION FOR EXPECTED AND UNEXPECTED 1< BENEFIT/COST < 10 1< BENEFIT/COST < 10

BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST RELOCATION AND REROUTING RELOCATION AND REROUTING REDUCES LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE AND LOSS REDUCES LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE AND LOSS 1< BENEFIT/COST < 10 1< BENEFIT/COST < 10 RELOCATION AND REROUTING RELOCATION AND REROUTING REDUCES LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE AND LOSS REDUCES LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE AND LOSS 1< BENEFIT/COST < 10 1< BENEFIT/COST < 10

BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST NON-STRUCTURAL MITIGATION NON-STRUCTURAL MITIGATION PROTECTS CONTENTS AND EQUIPMENT PROTECTS CONTENTS AND EQUIPMENT 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000 NON-STRUCTURAL MITIGATION NON-STRUCTURAL MITIGATION PROTECTS CONTENTS AND EQUIPMENT PROTECTS CONTENTS AND EQUIPMENT 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS HAZARD MAPS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE PREVENTION/MITIGATION PREPAREDNESS EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION RISK MANAGEMENT