Learning from the Past to Protect the Future: Creating our Nation’s Next Earthquake & Tsunami Survival Stories John D. Schelling, Interim Mitigation & Recovery Section Manager Washington State Emergency Management

Where We Have Been? The Past…

Great 1964 Alaska Earthquake & Tsunami: Effects in Washington State  March 27, 5:36 p.m.  Magnitude 9.2  Most powerful earthquake recorded in U.S. history and second largest of all time (Chile M9.5, 1960)  Resulting tsunami peak was about 220 feet in Valdez inlet and many others locations were over 50 feet  Entire west coast and Hawaii affected from tsunami, especially California and Oregon.  The wave height in Washington was about feet Highway 109 bridge over Copalis River, WA Houses torn apart at Pacific Beach, WA

Today is the 13 th Anniversary of the Nisqually Earthquake  February 28, 10:54 a.m.  Magnitude 6.8  11 miles northeast of Olympia, Washington  31.6 miles deep  Felt from British Columbia to Montana  Amazingly, there were no deaths, ~400 injuries  Estimated losses of $1 - $4 billion Courtesy: USGS, 2001

Where Have Others Been Recently? The Not so Distant Past…

Canterbury, New Zealand Earthquakes  September 4, 4:35 a.m.  Magnitude 7.1  25 miles west of Christchurch near Darfield  6 miles deep  February 22, p.m.  Magnitude 6.3  3 miles southwest of Christchurch  3 miles deep Christchurch

Pre-Earthquake: Christchurch Central Business District (CBD)

During Earthquake: Christchurch Central Business District

“Downtown” Christchurch 2-Years Later

Post-Earthquake: (Recovery in Process) Christchurch Central Business District

We have come a long way from 1964…and even 2001 The Present…

 LOW Risk = NO Risk Christchurch Teaches Us That: USGS, 2008

Key Lessons from Christchurch: Hazard Assessment & Pre-Disaster Mitigation Really Matter…and Really Work!  Hazard Assessment is Essential:  Prior to this earthquake sequence, the Greendale Fault had not been identified.  Mitigation Works: “ For example, the mitigation measures put in place after a vulnerability study ( ) cost $6 million but are estimated to have saved $60-65 million in direct asset replacement costs as result of the earthquakes in addition to the contribution to rapid restoration of services.”  Source: Review of the Civil Defence Emergency Management Response to the 22 February Christchurch Earthquake, 29 June 2012 Source: GNS Science, 2011

 Social Science needs to be part of the process, and it needs to play an equal role.  The USGS Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) project is a GREAT start, but needs to be scaled to a national level in order to be most effective.  With the potential use of Earthquake Early Warning, we NEED a holistic approach…one that considers not only how to get a warning to people, but effectively teaches them WHAT TO DO once it arrives. New Zealand Teaches Us Another Lesson: Life Safety Community Resilience Informed Risk Reduction Social Science Physical Science

Effective Branding of Seismic Safety: Great ShakeOut Earthquake Safety Drills Total Registration (worldwide) 2013: 24.7 million 2012: 19.5 million 2011: 12.5 million 2010: 8.0 million 2009: 6.9 million million 2013 Official ShakeOut Regions 21 Regions (+5 from 2012) 44 U.S. States/ Territories (+20)

Washington State Earthquake Scenario Catalog: A Virtual Playbook for Natural Hazards Management USGS ShakeMap FEMA Loss Estimation (HAZUS) Report USGS Community Vulnerability Information Scenario Fact Sheet (EMD, USGS, FEMA, NOAA) Suite of Materials (accessible at

Washington State Earthquake Scenario Catalog: Impacts Viewer for Planning, Preparedness, Mitigation, & Response

But we still have a long way to go! How do we get there from here? (as quickly and inexpensively as possible…of course) The Future…

What would a repeat of the 1964 Alaska Earthquake and Tsunami Look Like in the Lower 48? The Cascadia Earthquake Scenario  Magnitude 9.0  Felt region-wide  Shaking intensities greatest along coast & where local conditions amplify seismic waves  Injuries: 30,000 +  Fatalities: 10,000 +  Economic losses: $81+ Billion in Oregon & Washington alone. Image Source: USGS Source: Cascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup (

 How do you get recovery underway more rapidly and get your economy moving? Don’t let infrastructure break to begin with.  Recovery Planning…in advance. Marching boldly towards Resilience…one state at a time

 Both the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) and the Tsunami Warning & Education Act (TWEA) are critical to helping states and local communities succeed in both identifying and reducing near- and long-term risk and increasing life-safety.  These two key laws provide the necessary underpinning for a coordinated and effective national strategy for to reduce our future earthquake and tsunami losses. The Most Effective Way to a Resilient Future is Through NEHRP and TWEA

 National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP)  NEHRP provides a strategic nation direction and helps marshal sometimes disconnected entities in a common direction  Without a reauthorization, agencies such as FEMA do not have a line item in their budget for these activities.  We are seeing the consequences of cash matching requirements…consider in-kind to ensure that all states can participate in the program  Tsunami Warning & Education Act (TWEA)  Funding that supports hazard assessment, warning capability, and community-based preparedness may now be in greater jeopardy simply due to National Weather Service reorganization The Most Effective Way to a Resilient Future is Through NEHRP and TWEA.

With every disaster comes opportunity. Will we seize our opportunities to create a better, more resilient nation before or after our next big earthquake(s) and tsunami(s)?