Climate Forecast Tools for Livestock Producers Norman Breuer and Kenny Broad (UM) Carla Roncoli and Todd Crane (UGA) Clyde Fraisse and Peter E. Hildebrand (UF) Victor Cabrera (NMSU) Presented at the NOAA CDWS Tallahassee October 2007 Norman Breuer and Kenny Broad (UM) Carla Roncoli and Todd Crane (UGA) Clyde Fraisse and Peter E. Hildebrand (UF) Victor Cabrera (NMSU) Presented at the NOAA CDWS Tallahassee October 2007

Outline Three Case Studies Beef Cattle in NC Florida Dairy DSS Process Beef Cattle and Forage DSS Process Lessons Challenges

Livestock and Forage in Florida 1.7 million head of cattle and calves Cattle and calves 330M $ Milk and milk products 371M $ Forage and hay 516M $ Total 1.22B $

Livestock and Forage in Florida Frequent drought conditions Severe drought in 2006 and 2007 caused pasture and hay shortage 2006 hay production was record low for the past 20 years Most cattlemen were forced to feed supplements Hay farmers experiencing high fertilizer prices To cope with drought, ranchers were weaning early or selling off some animals at lower than average weights

Research Sites Beef Cattle Dairy Cow-calf Case Studies Map: Google Earth

Methodology

SECC Co-Development Framework

Beef Cattle North Central Florida Four Sondeos (multidisciplinary, conversational, rapid team surveys) conducted, Linear program developed from secondary data, Sondeo information, and interviews Models calibrated using Participatory Linear Programming (PLP) DSSAT and Ceres used for summer and winter pasture crop models, respectively, and connected to the model through stocking rate Case study 1

Steps in Participatory DSS Building Identify needs through initial contacts with producers Create or adapt models Develop prototype DSS using secondary data Discuss model with stakeholders Cabrera, Breuer et al. 2006, submitted Case study 2

Steps in Participatory DSS Building Include farmers, consultants, extension agents, government officials, and university faculty in process Elicit input on structure and function of systems, coefficients, parameters, and individual modules Develop final DSS and return to stakeholders for validation Cabrera, Breuer et al. 2006, submitted Case study 2

Dairy DS participation in North Florida Case study 2 We conducted: 26 separate stakeholder interactions of different types (Sondeos, focus groups, meetings) 90 persons of which 38 were farmers or farm managers

Social Learning Collective action rather than individual Issues and activities of central concern to community members Scientists, practitioners, and producers co- develop technologies Increased likelihood of adaptation through adoption of climate-based DSS Case study 3

Background Declining profits Increased cost of energy (pumping) Increased transportation cost Pressure from increasing land prices Variable climate Frequent drought or flood Case study 3

Learning Community Buck Island Ranch - MacArthur Agro-ecology Research Center Ona Range Cattle Research and Education Center Private cattle ranchers in the vicinity Case study 3

Learning Community Objective –Develop methods to help cattle ranching remain viable in South Florida with climate- based DSS –For this: strong climate component needed Case study 3

Cow-Calf Production in SFL: Drought and Flood An old-timer saying goes “In SFL you are never more than 3 days away from a flood or 3 weeks away from a drought.” Research needed: Climate-production relationships Climate and ranch economics –Potential for hay production –Sod production –Sale of water retention or release rights to SFWMD Case study 3

Framework for Social Learning Process Case study 3 Adapted from Christensen and Sriskandarajah 2006

Expected Results of Social Learning Development of local capacity Increased understanding of relationship between climate and rates of conception in cows and growth rate of calves Operational, open access DSS Scientific papers Sustainability of industry (label of origin) Case study 3

Beef cattle CFL Dairy cattle NFL Beef cattle SFL Results

Climate-based forecasts could aid ranch management decisions Planting and fertilizing rye-grass mixtures only in years when good stocking possibilities exist Savings from buying hay ahead of time before a dry, cold winter More plentiful stocking during good rainfall winters Case study 1

In dairy, ENSO phases affect nitrogen leaching and biomass production N-leaching is 10% higher during El Niño years N-leaching is closely correlated with ENSO-related with occurrence of extreme rainfall events Potential responses are adjusting crop sequences to increase N-uptake while maintaining biomass necessary for production Cabrera, Breuer et al Case study 2

Lessons Participation is a good beginning Social learning is a logical progression from past research Potential adaptations exist Co-development aids adoption Value of climate information may be easier to measure community level where adaptations can be well documented

Challenges and Opportunities Cow-calf is different from single crop Multiple variables require better statistical methods Climate plays an important role Users are intensely interested A multidisciplinary approach is needed Learning communities must be facilitated in order to develop