Enhancing the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service: A Program to Develop A Low-Flow/Stage Database for Selected NWS Forecast Points in the Upper Colorado River Basin August 18, 2009 – Boulder, CO Mark Svoboda, Climatologist, Monitoring Program Area Leader, NDMC Dr. Donna L. Woudenberg, Drought Management Specialist, NDMC Dr. Cody L. Knutson, Water Resources Scientist, NDMC Doug Kluck, NOAA-NWS CRHQ

Outline Context High-flows vs. Low-flows Completed Low-flow Projects Upper Colorado River Basin Project A real-time tool: The DIR Wrap-up: What can it mean to SWSI?

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Flood early warning system Network of >4300 stream gauges Providing current river flow/stage data Up to 7-day forecasts at many forecast points 90-day probabilistic forecasts at about 1/3 of the forecast points

AHPS Regional Map

AHPS Products

Minor Flooding: minimal or no property damage, but possibly some public threat or inconvenience. Moderate Flooding: some inundation of structures and roads near stream. Some evacuations of people and/or property to higher elevation is necessary. Major Flooding: extensive inundation of structures and roads. Significant evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations. AHPS Flood Classifications

River Stage and Flood Impact Information Gunnison River at Grand Junction (Photo taken by Ken Dewey, 2001)

Photos, Maps, Flood Stages, and Historical Data

Cumulative Chance of Exceeding Levels (90 day outlook) The values along the x axis show the probability of reaching a particular flow (y axis). CS = conditional simulation; HS = historical simulation

Weekly Chance of Exceeding Levels (90 day forecast)

High-flows vs. Low-flows

Although providing great benefits for flood protection, the AHPS system does not provide the same information for low flow events. Low flows in rivers and streams can have similar harmful effects in terms of health, economic, and environmental consequences.

Low-flow / Drought Impacts Economic Costs and losses to agricultural and livestock producers Loss from timber production Loss from fishery production Loss to recreation and tourism industry Energy-related effects Water Suppliers Transportation Industry / navigation Decline in food production/disrupted food supply Environmental Damage to animal species Hydrological effects Damage to plant communities Increased number and severity of fires Wind and water erosion of soils, reduced soil quality Air quality effects (e.g., dust, pollutants) Visual and landscape quality (e.g., dust, vegetative cover, etc.)

Low-flow / Drought Impacts Social Health Increased conflicts (“water wars”) Reduced quality of life, changes in lifestyle Disruption of cultural belief systems (e.g., religious and scientific views of natural hazards) Reevaluation of social values (e.g., priorities, needs, rights) Public dissatisfaction with government drought response Perceptions of inequity in relief, possibly related to socioeconomic status, ethnicity, age, gender, seniority Loss of cultural sites Increased data/information needs, coordination of dissemination activities Recognition of institutional restraints on water use

Objective 1: Identify low flow/stage related impacts near NWS forecast points Objective 2: Use impact information to establish low flow/stage warning triggers (drought stages) Objective 3: Develop low flow/stage river forecasts Incorporate data into the NWS National Hydrologic Database and the AHPS system Led to the development of a low flow/stage impacts database for AHPS forecast points

Completed Low-flow Projects

Upper Mississippi River Basin (2004) MN – 21 forecast points North Platte River Basin (2005) CO, WY, and NE – 17 forecast points Upper Missouri Basin (2006) WY, MT, and ND – 45 forecast points Upper Trinity River Basin (2007) TX – 29 forecast points Red River of the North (2007) ND & MN – 35 forecast points Conducted internet and literature reviews Collected information on potential low flow impacts from federal, state, and local water experts Completed Low Flow Projects

Flow (cfs) Stage (ft) ImpactsTiming/Other Considerations Information Sources 40Irrigation releases for crops become sporadic; some fields may not receive full allotment of water Late summerBrian Artery, District Manager, Platte County Conservation District 20Recreation opportunities very limited, boat ramps at Greyrocks Reservoir are likely to be inaccessible Late summer 10Irrigation releases cease; crops will require alternative irrigation water supply Late summer 10Conditions are not favorable for aquatic life; fish and other aquatic organisms begin to die Late summer 10Conditions are not favorable for livestock and wildlife water, livestock producers must implement alternative livestock water supply Late summer Fort Laramie Forecast Point, Wyoming

Experts Were Asked to Provide Information on: The impacts of low river levels The stage/flow at which impacts occur Which AHPS site(s) best reflect the impacts Other factors that affect particular impacts/locations Key Findings loss of municipal, industrial, and agricultural water activation of water rights regulation procedures activation of state and local drought response plans reduced recreational opportunities hydropower losses dredging to maintain navigation fish and wildlife losses exposure of infrastructure increased effluent testing (NPDES)

Developing a better understanding of low river impacts at the local level will provide the benefit of more detailed information for water resources planning applications at all levels, as well as in advancing the development of the AHPS system. Conclusion of Case Studies…

Low-flow Projects Upper Colorado (164) & ACT-ACF (58)

NIDIS Pilot Programs Upper Colorado River Basin 164 stations – Central Region NWS/NIDIS ACT-ACF stations – Southern Region NWS/NIDIS

Upper Colorado River Basin Project

Upper Colorado River Low-Flow Project Identify potential low flow/stage impacts near 164 forecast points

Upper CO 164 Stations Progress made with 2/3; need information for remaining third Examples of impacts received/recorded in following slides

Flow (cfs) Stage (ft) Impacts Timing/Other Considerations Submitted by Top of Active Conservation for Stateline Dam Source – U.S. Bureau of Reclamation – Data web Top of Inactive Conservation for Stateline Dam Source – U.S. Bureau of Reclamation – Data web Top of Dead Storage for Stateline Dam Source – U.S. Bureau of Reclamation – Data web cfs Advise water restrictions for residents in the town of Valley. Only allowed to water trees and shrubs, and watering only to be performed every other day. Rocky Irick – Bridger Valley Joint Powers Board (personal communication) 2.6 – 2.8 cfs Restrict farmer’s use of irrigation water to maintain adequate water supply for residents of. Water diversion from Smiths Fork to Blacks Fork for longer period than normal. ** is in the process of changing water rights so this may not be a problem in the future** Rocky Irick – Bridger Valley Joint Powers Board (personal communication) 7.0 cfsInstream flow recommendation for a 4.6 mile stretch of the East Fork of Smith’s Fork Creek (below Stateline Dam) **Application on file, but permit not yet granted. Source – Green River Basin Water Planning Process (Final Report, 2001) – Technical Memoranda (Instream Flows in Wyoming), prepared for Wyoming Water Development Commission Basin Planning Program Low-Flow Related Impacts in the Upper Colorado River Basin National Weather Service / National Drought Mitigation Center Station ID: 14 – SLRW4 (Smiths Fork at Stateline Reservoir, WY)

Flow (cfs) Sta ge (ft) ImpactsTiming/Other Considerations Submitted by 2000 to Recommended flow for boating/kayaking Source: Eddy Flower – Kayaking Information ( px?RunId=901) 8,300Peak flow magnitude- (Dry- 90 to 100% exceedance) Flow and temperature recommendation by hydrologic condition to benefit endangered fishes- Spring Peak Flow Flow and Temperature Recommendations For Endangered Fishes in Downstream of Flaming Gorge Dam-Final Report 2000 ( orgeflowrecs.pdf) Spring Peak Flow Anticipated Effects (Dry-90 to 100% exceedance) Spring peak flow-No floodplain inundation but some flooding of off-channel habitats. May benefit recruitment of CO pike minnow in some years Flow and Temperature Recommendations For Endangered Fishes in Downstream of Flaming Gorge Dam-Final Report 2000 ( orgeflowrecs.pdf) ,100 Mean base-flow magnitude (Dry-90 to 100% exceedance)-Gradually declining flows after the spring peak will provide reproductive cues to CO pikeminnow and humpback chub adults. Warmer temperatures also promote better growth of endangered fishes Flow and temperature recommendation by hydrologic condition to benefit endangered fishes- Summer through winter base flow – About June 15 to March 1 Flow and Temperature Recommendations For Endangered Fishes in Downstream of Flaming Gorge Dam-Final Report 2000 ( orgeflowrecs.pdf) 1,100 to 1,500 Mean base-flow magnitude (Moderately Dry-70 to 90% exceedance) Gradually declining flows after the spring peak will provide reproductive cues to CO pikeminnow and humpback chub adults. Warmer temperatures also promote better growth of endangered fishes Flow and temperature recommendation by hydrologic condition to benefit endangered fishes- Summer through winter base flow – About June 15 to March 1 Flow and Temperature Recommendations For Endangered Fishes in Downstream of Flaming Gorge Dam-Final Report 2000 ( orgeflowrecs.pdf) Low-Flow Related Impacts in the Upper Colorado River Basin National Weather Service / National Drought Mitigation Center Station ID: 29 – JESU1 (Green River near Jensen, UT)

Flow (cfs) Stage (ft) ImpactsTiming/Other Considerations Submitted by This gauge has been discontinued. People use the releases from the dams for the same numbers. Keith Hooper - Central Utah Water Conservancy District (435) Submitted information 8/5/09 Low-Flow Related Impacts in the Upper Colorado River Basin National Weather Service / National Drought Mitigation Center Station ID: 35 – STIU1 (Strawberry River at Strawberry Reservoir, UT)

Flow (cfs) Stage (ft) ImpactsTiming/Other Considerations Submitted by 7,790 Boat ramps cannot be used for most motorized watercraft at or below this stage Source: water – Williams Fork Reservoir official website g/recreation/williams.html Low-Flow Related Impacts in the Upper Colorado River Basin National Weather Service / National Drought Mitigation Center Station ID: 99 – WFDC2 (Williams Fork at Williams Fork Reservoir near Parshall, CO)

Flow (cfs) Stage (ft) ImpactsTiming/Other Considerations Submitted by Recommended flow for boating/kayaking Source: Eddy Flower – Kayaking Information ( yDetail.aspx?StateId=1) 1500+High flow conditions – Powerful, unforgiving water for boating/kayaking Flows greater than 1000 cfs Typically experienced from July-September Source: Eddy Flower – Kayaking Information ( yDetail.aspx?StateId=1) Medium flow conditions – Flow ideal for boating/kayaking Flows greater than 1000 cfs Typically experienced from July-September Source: Eddy Flower – Kayaking Information ( yDetail.aspx?StateId=1) Low flow conditions – Potential for damage to boats/kayaks Source: Eddy Flower – Kayaking Information ( yDetail.aspx?StateId=1) Low-Flow Related Impacts in the Upper Colorado River Basin National Weather Service / National Drought Mitigation Center Station ID: 106 – KRMC2 (Colorado River near Kremmling, CO )

Flow (cfs) Stage (ft) ImpactsTiming/Other Considerations Submitted by Recommended flow for boating/kayaking Source: Eddy Flower – Kayaking Information ( px?StateId=1) High flow conditions – Powerful, unforgiving water for boating/kayaking Source: Eddy Flower – Kayaking Information ( px?StateId=1) Medium flow conditions – Flow ideal for boating/kayaking Source: Eddy Flower – Kayaking Information ( px?StateId=1) Low flow conditions – Boat damage/abuse can occur Source: Eddy Flower – Kayaking Information ( px?StateId=1) < 300River too low to float boat or kayak Source: Eddy Flower – Kayaking Information ( px?StateId=1) Low-Flow Related Impacts in the Upper Colorado River Basin National Weather Service / National Drought Mitigation Center Station ID: 141 – GEPC2 (Gunnison River below Gunnison Tunnel, CO)

Potential Contacts NDMC staff contact various water experts in the region, such as: National Weather Service United States Geological Survey US Army Corp of Engineers US Bureau of Reclamation Natural Resources Conservation Service State and Regional Water Agencies and Organizations Soil and Water Conservation Districts Community water managers near AHPS points They help identify potential low-flow related impacts that can be linked to river flow/stages at NWS AHPS forecast points.

A Colorado Example 1) What effects would typically occur as the White River flow decreases at the AHPS forecast point near Meeker (WRMC2; #31)? 2) At what general stage/flow would those impacts occur? 3) Are these impacts seasonal? Or specifically drought- related ?

Current White River AHPS Forecast Point at Meeker, Colorado What would happen as stage/flow decreases?

An example of a seven-day river forecast hydrograph with indicators of critical low flow and flood levels. The red line indicates the flood level. The tan line indicates the critical low flow level at this forecast point. The blue line shows the current river level and the green line is the actual forecast. North Central River Forecast Center Future Work for River Forecast Centers…

An example of a 90-day streamflow outlook for low water. The values along the x axis show the probability of reaching a particular flow (y axis). The brown zone at the bottom of the graph shows the critical level for this forecast point at which low water impacts begin to take effect. CS = conditional simulation; HS = historical simulation. North Central River Forecast Center

The Drought Impact Reporter

The Drought Impact Reporter

Why Record Drought’s Impacts? NDMC mission in a nutshell: To reduce vulnerability to drought… Impacts point to vulnerability Mitigation and response

Drought Impact Reporter (DIR) On-line since July 2005 >10,000 impacts logged, First searchable, multi-source, archived database of drought impacts in the U.S. Combines data from multiple sources into a unified map Media, public, government documents, etc.

NOAA 1% Gov’t 4.6% Public 4.2% Media 89% Other 1.2% Who Can Submit a Report? Anyone interested in reporting the impacts of drought We need to increase non- media reporting! You can become a “drought spotter”

“Add an Impact”

Building DIRv2

DIR 2.0 Enhancements More user-friendly design More efficient use of screen space Improved searching and mapping Change in category names Distinguishes between reports and impacts New “submit a report” form (w/ photo upload) Ability to “tap” existing networks for drought information (ex. CoCoRaHS) Coming Soon! (4Q 2009)

Enhanced County Level Information

Networks to Add CoCoRaHS NWS Drought Reports State reports: water restrictions, burn bans Cropwatchers (Farm Bureau) Extension Agents Researchers

Summary The Upper Colorado Low-flow Project will prove to be beneficial to managers, planners, and decision-makers in a number of ways, including: by providing more detailed information for water resources planning applications at all levels by enhancing the existing AHPS Potential for low flow forecasts Impacts as ground truth for indices (reality check) by providing a high quality baseline document for the NIDIS Pilot Project in the region

Thank you! We welcome your participation and input as we work to improve the Drought Impact Reporter and other tools at the NDMC. Please contact me: Mark Svoboda

Flow (cfs) Stage (ft) ImpactsTiming/Other Considerations Submitted by 5960 Top of Active Conservation Pool at Rifle Gap Dam Source – U.S. Bureau of Reclamation – Data web o01692.htm 5960 Top of Inactive Conservation Pool at Rifle Gap Dam Source – U.S. Bureau of Reclamation – Data web o01692.htm 5903 Top of Dead Storage at Rifle Gap Dam Source – U.S. Bureau of Reclamation – Data web o01692.htm Low-Flow Related Impacts in the Upper Colorado River Basin National Weather Service / National Drought Mitigation Center Station ID: 124 – RRGC2 (Rifle Creek at Rifle Gap Reservoir, CO)

Flow (cfs) Stage (ft) ImpactsTiming/Other Considerations Submitted by Top of Active Conservation Pool at Ridgway Dam Source – U.S. Bureau of Reclamation – Data web o82912.htm Top of Inactive Conservation Pool at Ridgway Dam Source – U.S. Bureau of Reclamation – Data web o82912.htm 6726 Top of Dead Storage at Ridgway Dam Source – U.S. Bureau of Reclamation – Data web o82912.htm Low-Flow Related Impacts in the Upper Colorado River Basin National Weather Service / National Drought Mitigation Center Station ID: 148 – RBSC2 (Uncompahgre River at Ridgway Reservoir, CO)