1 ADM-Benson Quinn Miller, SD. 2 The Land of Plenty? A Grain Market Outlook Kim Rugel, Benson Quinn Commodities, Inc. Futures and options trading involve.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Commodity Consulting and Marketing Services Yates City, Ill. Are You the Gatekeeper to Your.
Advertisements

2008 K-State Risk Assessed Marketing Workshops Grain Marketing Principles & Tools Cash Grain Basis, Forward Contracts, Futures & Options Dr. Daniel M.
Agricultural Land Use Lori Lynch, Professor Agricultural and Resource Economics University of Maryland.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2012 RANDALL LOWRY LEIS FEEDS MILVERTON, FEB 1, 2012.
FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts Exports $6.9 billion to $149.5 billion Imports $0.5 billion to $110.5 billion Surplus.
Market Perspective or.
Marketing Ag Commodities, Grain and Cattle Considerations Rodney Jones Oklahoma Farm Credit Professor of Ag Finance.
April 2014 Dairy Commodity Market Situation & Outlook.
ADM Grain Market Outlook 2014 Agriculture Council of Arkansas Annual Meeting David Glidewell Mid-South Regional Manager December, 2014.
1 Informa Economics 2007 Agriculture Policy Roundtable Commodity Market Update By Jim Sullivan Informa Economics 2007 Agriculture Policy Roundtable Commodity.
Seasonality and Its Effects on Crop Markets. Seasonality and Its Causes  Seasonality is the phenomenon that causes crop prices (including cash, futures,
1 World Grain & Oilseed Outlook March Summary –Corn Acreage Exhale Export Expansion?? Funds big buyers. SA Crop Shrinking Bearish Bias - $3.50.
Presented by: Mark Gold President Top Third Ag Marketing, LLC.
DEVELOPING A MARKETING PLAN. What is the basic information you need to develop a marketing plan? l Determine the amounts of grain to sell l Determine.
Agricultural Economics Grain Market Outlook by Cory G. Walters University of Kentucky (859)
Art School of Economic Sciences College of Agricultural, Human, and Natural Resource Sciences Washington State University Randy Fortenbery Understanding.
Crop Market Price Outlook Utilizing Cash Marketing Tools Selling Old & New Crop Corn & Soybeans Crop Market Outlook & Risk Management Strategies December.
CFNA China’s Pulses Production and Trade in 2008 Season.
Economic Research Service USDA Grains & Oilseeds Outlook Agricultural Outlook Forum 2012 Edward W. Allen U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research.
Soybean Situation &Outlook Chuck Danehower Extension Specialist – Farm Management.
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness.
February 2012 Steven D. Johnson Farm & Ag Business Management Specialist (515)
Agricultural Producer Risk Management Optimizing Client Success Tom Neher VP AgriBusiness AgStar Financial Services November 4, 2011.
Grain and Oilseeds Outlook for 2011 Grain and Oilseeds Outlook for 2011 Michael Jewison Michael Jewison Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Department of.
The Linn Group Markets in Review July Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this.
Robert Bresnahan The 9 th China International Oils & Oilseeds Conference November 6,
January 2015 London ON © DePutter Marketing Seminar Part 2: Marketing your crops.
Grain Outlook For Dr. Robert Wisner Iowa State University Dr. Robert Wisner Iowa State University 5/17/2004.
FY 2016 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2016 Forecasts Exports $0.5 billion to $124.5 billion Imports $3.7 billion to $114.8 billion Surplus.
OILSEED, CORN & WHEAT OUTLOOK: 2016/17 Jonn Slette Senior Attache United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agriculture Service
Update of Market Fundamentals World & US Wheat Markets Note: slides 1 through 14 are exclusively USDA data (except 2016/17 projections); slides 15 and.
Market Outlook And Market Situation! Rodney Jones OSU NW Area Extension Economist.
2014 State Farm Management Non- Math Problems. 7. How many pounds are in a metric ton? A. 2,000.0 B. 2,204.6 C. 3,666.7 D. 4,012.5 E. None of the above.
Published By Hackett Financial Advisors, Inc. Shawn Hackett, President 9259 Equus Circle Boynton Beach, FL (888)
World Supply, Demand and Price Outlook for Oilseeds and Oilmeals
Outlook for Feed Grain / Oilseed Markets
February 2018 – Producer Introduction Slide Deck
Livestock and Grains Situation and Outlook January 2018
Maintaining Profitability in Challenging Times
Corn and Soybean Price Outlook
Grain and Oilseed Outlook
The Lay of the Land in Agriculture
Crop Outlook Pro Ag Fall 2011 Outlook Seminar Altoona, Iowa
Crop and Feed Outlook for 2012
ANNUAL MEETING AFOA October 9, 2013
Crop Marketing Hancock County Grain Marketing Garner, Iowa
Crop Outlook Pro Ag Fall 2011 Outlook Seminars
Ag Marketing for Beginning Farmers
Crop Outlook Pro Ag Fall 2011 Outlook Seminar Fort Dodge, Iowa
Commodity Market Outlook
2012 Crop Market Price Outlook
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
2012 Crop Market Outlook Northeast Iowa Research Farm Field Day
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
2013 Crop Market Outlook ISU Extension Farm Management In-service
Crop Price Outlook Lynnville Ag Marketing Club Meeting Grinnell, Iowa
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Crop Outlook Iowa Institute for Coops Annual Meeting Ames, Iowa
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Let’s Talk about Agricultural Marketing
How Do You Like Your Markets, Wet or Dry?
Crop Marketing Outlook for 2010
Agricultural Marketing
2013 Crop Market Outlook Women Grain Marketing Meeting Hampton, Iowa
How to Manage Your Bottom Line in a Global Market
How to Manage Your Bottom Line in a Global Market
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
How to Manage Your Bottom Line in a Global Market
Marketing Strategies for Volatile Markets Frayne Olson, PhD Crop Economist/Marketing Specialist Director – Burdick Center for Cooperatives
Presentation transcript:

1 ADM-Benson Quinn Miller, SD

2 The Land of Plenty? A Grain Market Outlook Kim Rugel, Benson Quinn Commodities, Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Benson Quinn Commodities, Inc. is strictly prohibited. The information and comments contained herein is provided by Benson Quinn Commodities, Inc. (“BQCI") and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. BQCI is a wholly owned subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company and An Introducing Broker for ADMIS February 26, 2014 Miller, SD

3 Grain Markets 2014 Glass Half Empty? Glass Half Full?

4 Fundamental Price Factors Long term US/World supply needs Basic supply/ demand input Weather China InvestmentCommunity World Macro- Economic Conditions

5 High Prices are the Cure for High Prices

6 “What Goes Up, Must Come Down.”  High prices encouraged increased global plantings  World wheat, corn and soybean production was record large  High prices shifted demand to other markets  Brazil was world’s largest exporter of corn last year  New low price environment has attracted demand  World feed demand shifting back to corn from wheat  Demand is not exceeding supplies for first time in 5 years  Bearish supply environment has shifted investment funds away from commodities or to shorting the market

7 Supply Bull to Supply Bear Market

8

9 Shifting World Export Markets

10 World Corn Demand Rebounding

11 World Wheat Trade Recovers

12 The Money Left the Marketplace

13 The Money Left the Marketplace

14 Improving Export Outlook: Corn  China rejecting MIR 162 and cancelling US sales  Unshipped sales to China: 1.5 MMT or 60 mil bus.  South Korea and Japan taking rejected cargoes

15 Improving Export Outlook: Wheat  China bought SRW early in season  Brazil bought HRW in fall due to Argentine issues  US demand picking up due to Canada logistic issues

16 Similar Dynamics in the Beans

17 Rebounding US Production

18 Global Supply Exceeds Demand

19 Yet, China Demand Grows 15.3%

20 Demand for US Beans not Slacking  Exports at 105% of forecast +78 mil; shipments at 84%  China cancellation expected 2-3 MMT or mil bus.  China unshipped sales: 4.03 MMT or 148 mil bus.  Unknown destination unshipped sales: 1.52 MMT or 55.8

21 The Money Has Skin in the Game

22 US Stocks Remain Tight vs. Global

– Record Production?  USDA Outlook Forum: First look at 2014 S&Ds  Starts with assumption US weather will be normal  Production forecasts based on trendline yields  Early acreage estimates based on economics  US balance sheet seen expanding  Are we moving into new marketing environment?  Protecting cost of production vs. maximizing profits  Have a Marketing Plan:  To sell old crop, new crop and 2015 crop  ASP contract, Minimum Price, Floor Price, Min/Max Contract

24 US Snow Cover

25 US Drought Monitor

26 US Short Term Temp Outlook Mar 2-6Mar 4-10

27 Spring Outlook MAM/NOAA TEMPS PRECIP

28 Spring Drought Outlook/Noaa

29 Summer Outlook JJA/NOAA TEMPS PRECIP

30 US Planted Acreage Outlook 14/ down 1.6 mil

31 US Corn Supply and Demand

32 Corn Stocks Grow Exponentially

33 US Bean Supply and Demand

34 Bean Stocks to Nearly Double

35 US Wheat Supply and Demand

36 Wheat Stocks Steady Growth

37 Marketing Tools  Hedge to Arrive – futures only, if bullish basis  Basis – basis only, if bullish futures  Open Offer – target price marketing  Average Seasonal Price – Spring pricing window  Minimum Price Contract – attach call, use if bullish  Floor Contract – attach put, use if bearish  Min/Max Contract – attach options sets floor and ceiling  ADM Marketing Partners Advisory recommendations  ADM Advantage

38 Corn Cost of Production 14/15

39 December Corn Chart

40 Bean Cost of Production 14/15

41 November Soybean Chart

42 Best Return Current Market14/15

43  US Acreage Mix: Corn vs. Beans  US Weather  China/World Weather  Money Flow  US Economy/Inflation?  Black Swan? What Could Change Price Outlook

44 Corn to Bean Price Ratio

45 Summer Outlook/World Weather

46 Global Weather Hot Spots

47 World Corn Ending Stocks

48 World Wheat Ending Stocks

49 Money Flow Out of Commodities

50 Equity Bubble?

51 World Unrest/Black Swan? Attributed: Reuters/Khaled Abdullah

52 Kim Rugel Benson Quinn Commodities, Inc. Minneapolis, MN ADM-Benson Quinn Hitchcock, SD Jeff Gottman and Kallie Craig Sources: USDA CFTC Commitment of Traders reports World Weather Spring Outlook NOAA NASS Census County Yield data Charts from The Hightower Report and DTN Cost of Production analysis estimated on regional data