Pakistan’s Geopolitical Environment UMT Conference, Lahore, March 29, 2011 Rasul Bakhsh Rais Professor, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, LUMS, Lahore

Regional Geopolitical Structure China as an emerging global power China as an emerging global power Indian ambitions, power and economic growth Indian ambitions, power and economic growth American and Western presence in Afghanistan American and Western presence in Afghanistan Cycles of war in Afghanistan and impact on the region and Pakistan Cycles of war in Afghanistan and impact on the region and Pakistan The Arab spring, peoples vs. the elites The Arab spring, peoples vs. the elites

International Power Structure From bipolarity to American dominance From bipolarity to American dominance The end of the cold war and ‘end of history’ The end of the cold war and ‘end of history’ The new liberal order, the Washington Consensus The new liberal order, the Washington Consensus New Western interventionism—Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya New Western interventionism—Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya Hegemonic regime, order, security and stability Hegemonic regime, order, security and stability

India as an emerging Power Economic growth and military might Economic growth and military might Strategic partnership with the United States Strategic partnership with the United States Quest for regional hegemony Quest for regional hegemony Pakistan’s security dilemma Pakistan’s security dilemma Pakistan’s India challenge growing more complex Pakistan’s India challenge growing more complex

The New American Strategy 2009 The deployment of 30,000 additional US troops, backed by expected 10,000 from Nato states, raise foreign troops to 140,000. The deployment of 30,000 additional US troops, backed by expected 10,000 from Nato states, raise foreign troops to 140,000. An emphasis on securing cities and trunk-roads An emphasis on securing cities and trunk-roads Increased effort to train the Afghan army and police, and expand their numbers Increased effort to train the Afghan army and police, and expand their numbers More money in civil development assistance More money in civil development assistance Closer working relationship with Pakistan Closer working relationship with Pakistan Withdrawal within two years, beginning 2011 Withdrawal within two years, beginning 2011

The Odds against Success The time factor, on whose side the time is? The time factor, on whose side the time is? Will the Americans stay for a long war? Will the Americans stay for a long war? Will the Afghan state be able to stand on its feet? Will the Afghan state be able to stand on its feet? Can the Afghan hearts and minds be won? Can the Afghan hearts and minds be won? Is insurgency changing into insurrection? Is insurgency changing into insurrection?

Pakistan’s Strategic Concern Long war would keep Pakistan on the boil Long war would keep Pakistan on the boil Cut and run will encourage Taliban and extremists Cut and run will encourage Taliban and extremists A non-neutral Afghanistan will remain a source of trouble for Pakistan A non-neutral Afghanistan will remain a source of trouble for Pakistan Political approach must move some notches up on the rank order of things Political approach must move some notches up on the rank order of things

Final Thoughts The war cannot be won by military means alone The war cannot be won by military means alone The Taliban and the foreign powers may reach a grand compromise—not unthinkable The Taliban and the foreign powers may reach a grand compromise—not unthinkable Neutralizing Afghanistan’s geopolitics Neutralizing Afghanistan’s geopolitics Rethinking Relationship with India Rethinking Relationship with India The Domestic challenges—terrorism, political violence and democratic stabilit The Domestic challenges—terrorism, political violence and democratic stabilit