The Current State and Future of the Regional Multi-Modal Travel Demand Forecasting Model

Travel Demand Forecasting This process predicts what will happen to the transportation system in the future under hypothetical conditions. Prior to travel forecasting; the land use, population, and economic activity are estimated for the forecast year. Regional Multi-Modal Model TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Current State of the Model The current model, maintained in MINUTP, is sufficient, but not state-of-the-art The current model provides an adequate framework for analyzing short-range and long-range planning issues Needs to include the latest “best practice” technology and sophistication Regional Multi-Modal Model TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Current Issues Out-of-date software No on-board passenger survey Out-of-date household travel survey Out-of-date roadway / transit network Out-of-date roadway data Out-of-date mathematical algorithms Regional Multi-Modal Model TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Future Enhancements Regional Multi-Modal Model TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

General Information Easy-to-use Microsoft Windows platform Flow chart interface provides exceptional flexibility in model design Scripting language provides flexibility for representing most complex methodologies. Full GIS capabilities CUBE Software Package TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Future Enhancements Regional Multi-Modal Model TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

General Information Comprehensive on-board survey of fixed route bus and rail passengers riding weekday service –Bi-State Development Agency –St. Clair County Transit District –Madison County Transit District Designed to assess origin and destination points, trip patterns, frequency of use, fare payment, and passenger demographics. On-Board Passenger Survey TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Data Collection Data was collected over a five-week period from March 25 to April 26, Collected 15,321 questionnaires from adult passengers and equated to a 68% response rate –13,535 from weekday bus passengers –1,786 from weekday rail passengers Designed to result in system-wide confidence level of 95% with a margin of error of  1%. On-Board Passenger Survey TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Typical Passenger African American Age 35 to 49 Equally likely to be male or female Has a household income < $15,000 annually Transit dependent (has no operating vehicle) Licensed to drive On-Board Passenger Survey TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Typical Passenger (continued) Rides transit primarily for travel to and from home and work Usually completes a trip by riding only one bus route or the MetroLink Walks to the bus stop or rail station Walks to his/her final destination On-Board Passenger Survey TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Typical Passenger (continued) Holds a full-time or part-time job Pays the fare by cash Could park within one or two blocks of the worksite if he/she drove Would not have to pay parking fees Has been a transit user for at least four years On-Board Passenger Survey TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Future Enhancements Regional Multi-Modal Model TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

General Information The survey collected weekday travel behavior characteristics from a representative sample of households residing in each of the eight counties that comprise the St. Louis region. Designed to capture activity and travel information for household members during a 24- hour timeframe. Household Travel Survey TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Data Collection Households were recruited by telephone and demographic interviews were conducted to gather data about the household and its members. The households were randomly assigned a travel day in which to record travel destination locations, travel mode, trip duration, persons traveling and destination activity. Data was collected in two phases – Spring 2002 and Fall Household Travel Survey TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Sample Goals and Performance CountyHousehold Population HH Population %Sample GoalSample Outcome St. Louis404, ,0872,118 St. Louis City147, Madison101, St. Charles101, St. Clair96, Jefferson71, Franklin34, Monroe10, Total968, ,0005,094 Household Travel Survey TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Key Trip Statistics (Expanded) VariableSt. Louis Region Total Person Trips9,457,294 Mean Trips per Household9.76 Mean Trips per Person3.89 Mean Trip Duration (minutes)17.87 Mean Work Trip Duration (minutes)22.57 Total Vehicle Trips8,316,427 Total Transit Trips150,495 Total School Bus Trips422,319 Total Non-motorized Trips553,310 Base: 46,909 unlinked trips weighted by geography, household size, and vehicle ownership and expanded to represent total daily person trips. Household Travel Survey TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Number of Trips Per Household on Assigned Travel Day Household Travel Survey TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Person Trip Origins and Destinations by County CountyTrip OriginsPercentTrip DestinationsPercent St. Louis4,037, ,030, St. Louis City1,407, ,407, St. Clair976, , St. Charles962, , Madison929, , Jefferson610, , Franklin339, , Monroe87, , Base: 46,909 unlinked trips weighted by geography, household size, and vehicle ownership and expanded to represent total daily person trips. Household Travel Survey TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Trip Purposes Household Travel Survey TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Trip Distribution by Time of Day Household Travel Survey TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Mode of Travel for Daily Person Trips Household Travel Survey TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Future Enhancements Regional Multi-Modal Model TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Current Network Roadway / Transit Network TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Future Network Roadway / Transit Network TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Future Enhancements Regional Multi-Modal Model TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

General Information Collected data will include: –Divided / one-way / two-way –Number of lanes –Posted speed limit –Posted parking restrictions –School zones –Traffic control devices Roadway Inventory TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Future Enhancements Regional Multi-Modal Model TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

General Information “Best practice” model will include: –New trip generation rates (by area type) –New trip purposes –Destination choice model –Mode choice nested-logit model –Volume-delay function –Feedback loop / peak spreading Mathematical Algorithms TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003

Projected Schedule Trips-Based Model –Implemented by December 2004 Tour-Based Model –Implemented December 2007 Regional Multi-Modal Model TEAM Presentation February 18, 2003