0 Socioeconomic Drivers for Transformation of the Nation’s Air Transportation System 30 th Annual FAA Aviation Forecast Conference Industry Restructuring and the Future of Global Aviation National Airspace Systems Planning—Government Panel March 18, 2005 Richard Golaszewski GRA, Incorporated 115 West Avenue Jenkintown, PA USA   

1 March 18, 2005 GRA, Incorporated Overview Policy framework Air travel and the economy Economics of production/consumption SEDF evaluation framework –Measurement –Results Implications

2 March 18, 2005 GRA, Incorporated Specific Policy Questions How does JPDO interact with airport and ATM infrastructure policies? –Status quo –Potential changes –Time horizons (short/medium term vs. longer term) Will private sector accomplish transformation alone? Why should government be involved? How should government role be structured? –Incentives for private sector participation –OMB/OSTP assessment criteria –Public goods and services Evaluation and Analysis Division (EAD) of JPDO conducting multidimensional assessment What are costs if transformation does not take place?

Air Travel and the Economy

4 March 18, 2005 GRA, Incorporated Air Transportation and Travel Sectors Air-Based Travel and Tourism Travel Services Hotels Meals Local Transportation Entertainment Air Transportation Air Operators Factors of Production Labor Capital Other International Trade/ Trade Balance Aircraft and Aerospace Manufacturing AirportsAir Traffic Management Source: John Cavolowsky and Lee Olson, Socio Economic Demand Forecast Study, presented to Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) January 2004.

5 March 18, 2005 GRA, Incorporated Broad Measures of Air Transport’s Share in National Economy Air transportation represents around one percent of total GDP Revenues to U.S. air carriers total just under $100 billion annually Air transport services contribute positively to net exports Less than one percent of merchandise, but 40 percent of U.S. merchandise imports and exports by value shipped by air The Economic Impact of Civil Aviation on the U.S. Economy* –$172 billion direct impact from civil aviation –$514 billion total GDP impact (5% of GDP) –11.5 million jobs supported by U.S. civil aviation *Conducted for FAA in 2002 using year 2000 data

6 March 18, 2005 GRA, Incorporated Some Fundamentals Air transportation integral to our way of life –Business (e.g., day trip WAS-ATL-WAS, two career families, etc.) –Leisure (Las Vegas, Orlando and rest of world) –Family and friends Growth fueled by increased productivity, safety, accessibility, environmental compatibility Economic impact measures resources consumed –Reduced impact per unit of output is good Economic value measures well-being –Resources to consume other goods and services –Changes in quality of life (free time, security, environment, health and safety, among others)

7 March 18, 2005 GRA, Incorporated As Real Prices Fall, The Market Expands Fares Lower Smaller A/C More Frequency Deregulation Consolidation LCC Entry Consolidation End State? Large A/C Low Frequency Fares Lower More Frequency Retain Older Aircraft Fares Lower—LCCs Growing Large Networks/Alliances Regional Carrier Growth Smaller A/C More Frequency Point-to-Point Fares Lower Time 1978 Market PhaseIndustry Structure LCCs Set Pricing Restructure

8 March 18, 2005 GRA, Incorporated Commercial Aviation Growth is Linked to Economic Growth EnplRPMsRTMsReal GDP

9 March 18, 2005 GRA, Incorporated Real Domestic Passenger Yields and Costs Have Fallen Steadily

10 March 18, 2005 GRA, Incorporated Domestic Revenue Enplanements Per Capita

Economics of Production and Consumption

12 March 18, 2005 GRA, Incorporated Airline Production/Demand Production Demand Frequency Distance Aircraft Size RASM CASM RPM Load Factor ASM Schedule Fare Travel Time Yield (Fare/RPM)

13 March 18, 2005 GRA, Incorporated Travel Choices Underlie Demand Passenger Destination Airport A Origin Airport D Destination Airport B Origin Passenger Origin Airport C Hub Auto Choice Variables Fares and access cost Travel time  Access  Intercity Service frequency/schedule On vehicle and other amenities Flexibility and reliability Example Choice Set 2 Origin airports Non-stop air Connect air Auto

Economic Analysis Methods

15 March 18, 2005 GRA, Incorporated Socioeconomic Demand Framework Value of Air Transportation  Derived demand  Location specific  Imperfect substitutes Future Air Transportation Demand  Economic growth  Population growth  Airfares  Service quality Capacity/Demand Assessment  Social costs  Willingness to pay  Productivity Start Stop

16 March 18, 2005 GRA, Incorporated The Shortfall: What Happens if Supply Doesn’t Keep Up with Demand Decreased real wealth of travelers and shippers leaving fewer resources that can be spent on other goods and services Reverse trends of lower cost travel and increased mobility made possible by deregulation, innovation and technological advances: –Some who rely on affordable air transportation may be priced out of the market when average fares rise (higher prices) –Travelers forced to less desirable times or locations because flights are added in less attractive time blocks (reduced product quality) Increased transportation and shipping costs Economy less competitive in global markets

17 March 18, 2005 GRA, Incorporated Capacity Shortfalls Have Real Economic Costs Economic Value of Air Transport ($) Cumulative loss in economic value if capacity is unable to serve growing demand over time ($144 billion for baseline demand) “The Wedge” Annual loss in economic value for 2015 ($6.5 billion for baseline demand) Annual loss in economic value for 2025 ($19.6 billion for baseline demand) SEDF Study, op cit.

18 March 18, 2005 GRA, Incorporated Notional Depiction of NAS Delay/Throughput Tradeoff

19 March 18, 2005 GRA, Incorporated Valuing Capacity Shortfall Unconstrained Demand Price Changes Quality Changes  Schedules  Delays Move Up Demand Curve Shed Demand Tolerable Delays? Price Increase to Clear Market N Y Demand Served at Expected Yields Loss of Consumer Surplus Increased Costs

20 March 18, 2005 GRA, Incorporated Prior Results Category 2015 ($billions) 2025 ($billions) Loss of consumer surplus in the domestic air travel market $3.3$13.1 Loss of consumer surplus in the international air travel market $0.3$0.8 Value of general aviation passenger miles lost$0.1$0.2 Cost of incremental passenger delay experienced $2.9$5.5 Total$6.5$19.6 Cumulative Impacts 2015 through 2025$143.6 Values are in constant, undiscounted 2002 dollars SEDF Study, op cit.

Implications

22 March 18, 2005 GRA, Incorporated The Value Proposition for NAS Transformation An ATM system capable of meeting projected demands for NAS capacity has value for the nation in terms of: –Improved safety and security –Enhanced quality of life –Contribution to the economy Aviation has substantial impacts on national life in the areas of: –Mobility and Accessibility –The Environment –Safety, Security and National Defense Post-transformation service attributes and prices represent “economic cost” –Consumer costs –Service quality (delays, schedules, travel time, airport access, etc.

23 March 18, 2005 GRA, Incorporated Implications A system unable to accommodate expected growth in demand, while maintaining quality, will impose tangible costs on those who rely on the NAS –Increased air fares –Decreased passenger trips Commercial aviation General aviation –Less productive use of time Less frequent service Increased time in and around airport –Increased costs for goods that are moved by air EAD developing multiple measures using NAS stimulators and related models –Safety and environment –Security

24 March 18, 2005 GRA, Incorporated Questions? Slides available at: Rich Golaszewski: