Recreational Values of Gulf Grouper John Whitehead, Appalachian State University Gulf of Mexico Fishery Management Council Socioeconomic Panel Miami, Florida Thursday May 3, 2007

“Outline” An overview of the MARFIN project Decisions made to date about MRFSS data Progress report / future effort Preliminary results from the Gulf of Mexico reef fish model

Angler Heterogeneity and Species-Specific Demand for Recreational Fishing in the Southeast United States* Tim Haab (Ohio State University) Rob Hicks (College of William and Mary) Kurt Schnier (University of Rhode Island) John Whitehead (Appalachian State University) *MARFIN #NA06NMF

Previous NMFS/MRFSS Recreational Valuation Research McConnell and Strand, 1994 Hicks, Steinbeck, Gautam, Thunberg, 1999 Haab, Whitehead, and Ted McConnell, 2000 Haab, Hicks, Whitehead, 2004

Targeting behavior Compare various angler targeting models single-species aggregates of related species all species combined We are considering:

Species substitution Estimate angler willingness to substitute to other species or species groups when fishing quality or fishing management changes

We will: Estimate how willingness to substitute species might differ by angler type socioeconomic factors preferences gear type (i.e., mode)

We will: Provide species- specific estimates of economic value for: changes in fishing quality management (e.g., size limits, bag limits)

To date: We have identified the feasibility of demand modeling at the species level Estimated two preliminary demand models

MRFSS 2000 LA to NC n = 70,781 Southeast 2000 (Limited Valuation Round) n = 42,079 Hook and line trips only (99%), day trips only (67%) [self-reported and < 200 miles one-way distance], delete missing values on key variables n = 18,709 +/- Targets a species n=11,257 +/-

Fishing mode

State of intercept

Species 425 unique species caught by recreational anglers sampled by the MRFSS 15 species account for 82% of the targeting activity and 38% of the (type 1) catch

Target Behavior (Prim1) sign Intercept+p <.01 Years fished+p <.01 Boat owner+p <.01 Shore mode-p <.01 Charter mode-p <.01 Days fished+p <.01 Wave 4- Wave 5+p <.01 Wave 6+p <.01 Gulf-p <.01

Traditional species groups Big game4% Bottom fish4% Flat fish5% Small game11% Snapper - grouper15%

Top target species of interest from RFP Red drum20% Dolphin6% King mackerel6% Spanish mackerel4%

Four demand models are being pursued Florida Atlantic Big Game Dolphin Big game fish Gulf of Mexico Reef Fish “Snappers” Shallow water groupers Red snapper

Four demand models … Inshore small game: Red drum, spotted seatrout, small game Offshore small game: King mackerel, spanish mackerel, small game

GOM Reef Fish Intercept Sites (n = 1224)

Target Species

“Snappers” (n = 160) gray snapper48.13% sheepshead23.75% white grunt11.88% black sea bass3.75% crevalle jack3.75% amberjack genus1.88% gray triggerfish1.88% snapper family1.25% yellowtail snapper1.25% atlantic spadefish0.63% blackfin snapper0.63% blue runner0.63% vermilion snapper0.63%

Shallow water groupers (n = 725) unidentified grouper73.38% gag17.38% red grouper6.07% grouper genus Mycteroperca2.9% black grouper0.28% Red snapper (n = 239)

Mode

Random Utility Models Conditional Logit Nested Logit Mixed Logit Latent Class Model

Conditional Logit Party/charter boat county sites Private/rental boat county sites

Nested Logit Party/charter Private/rental Counties

Variables 71 Species/Mode/Site choices Travel cost [party/charter] TC = charter fee + driving costs + time costs [private/rental] TC = driving costs + time costs Quality 5-year historic (type 1) targeted catch rate Predicted type 1 catch rate Number of MRFSS interview sites in the county

Conditional Logit Coefft-stat tcfee snapper grouper redsnapper Log(sites)

Mixed Logit Coefft-stat tcfee_M tcfee_S snapper grouper redsnapper lognsite

Value of one additional fish per trip ConditionalMixed Snapper$2$1 Grouper$31$17 Red snapper$17$11

Recreational value of an allocation change $ = V x  x  H Value per fish = V Change in harvest =  Current harvest = H

Gag STATE MODE HH Value ALABAMA CHARTER997$16,944 ALABAMA PRIVATE/RENTAL1,193$20,276 WEST FLORIDA CHARTER10,503$178,551 WEST FLORIDA PRIVATE/RENTAL29,971$509,512 LOUISIANA CHARTER304$5,161 LOUISIANA PRIVATE/RENTAL381$6,475

Red Grouper STATE MODE HH Value ALABAMA CHARTER447$7,602 ALABAMA PRIVATE/RENTAL104$1,765 WEST FLORIDA CHARTER7,659$130,203 WEST FLORIDA PRIVATE/RENTAL12,012$204,199

Contact John Whitehead Department of Economics Appalachian State University Boone, NC