WP 02 Socio-economic framework and guidelines Deliverables Presentation Universidade Atlântica - Portugal Cesme’s Meeting, September

WP 02 Socio-economic framework and guidelines D02.1: Identification of problem issues (Summary Report); D02.2: Guidelines for the socio-economic analysis: issues and indicators Universidade Atlântica - Portugal

The main objective of this document is the identification of socio-economic framework problem issues regarding both the thematic point of view and the methodological constrains. As it described on the general objectives of the SMART project, the socioeconomic dimension is one of the components present on the final results “to develop and implement a set of tools (…) integrating physical and socioeconomic aspects within a common consistent framework of indicators of sustainable development.” This deliverable of WP2 focuses mainly the human systems, but also the natural systems, particularly on the interactions and feedback mechanisms between them. The main objective of this document is the identification of socio-economic framework problem issues regarding both the thematic point of view and the methodological constrains. As it described on the general objectives of the SMART project, the socioeconomic dimension is one of the components present on the final results “to develop and implement a set of tools (…) integrating physical and socioeconomic aspects within a common consistent framework of indicators of sustainable development.” This deliverable of WP2 focuses mainly the human systems, but also the natural systems, particularly on the interactions and feedback mechanisms between them. D02.1: Identification of problem issues (Summary Report)

1. Water demand problems issues Task 1 - Population, demographic and migration policy analysis Population projection Demographic policy and population projections Key Planning Assumptions on Demographic Projections

D02.1: Identification of problem issues (Summary Report) 1. Water demand problems issues Task 2 - Political and economic options adopted for the study areas “The use of economic instruments by Member States may be appropriate as part of a programme of measures. The principle of recovery of the costs of water services, including environmental and resource costs associated with damage or negative impact on the aquatic environment should be taken into account in accordance with, in particular, the polluter-pays principle” (Point 38 in WFD)

D02.1: Identification of problem issues (Summary Report) 1. Water demand problems issues Task 2 - Political and economic options adopted for the study areas The water is there to produce better commodities emphasis on economic values to greater appreciation of aesthetic, environmental, and ecosystem values and the preservation of the resources The limits of a sustainable resources and the problem of tradıctıon

D02.1: Identification of problem issues (Summary Report) 1. Water demand problems issues Task 3 - Competing water uses Demographic (population growth). Economic (economic output; trade; works investment). Technological (hi-tech expansion; water efficiency; unit water pollutionInvestment; withdrawal efficiency). Social (global lifestyles; inequity).Governance (power structure; level of conflict; globalization). Environmental (water-related diseases; groundwater; ecosystem health) Water demand Scenarios Driving forces propelling the global water scenarios:

D02.1: Identification of problem issues (Summary Report) 1. Water demand problems issues Task 3 - Competing water uses Uncertainty in water-demand predictions Projecting 25 years involves assuming many political, environmental, economic, and technical factors will not change radically If the assumptions are changed (for example, population decreases in the area) the water-demand results will change. The results depend on the validity of the assumptions

D02.1: Identification of problem issues (Summary Report) 1. Water demand problems issues Task 4 - Economic analysis of water resources Economic analysis may suggest institutional changes or policy measures needed to sustain the financial and economic benefits generated by the project. Technical sustainability is looked after as part of the analysis of alternatives and determination of the least- cost option, which is done in the early project preparation or feasibility stage.

D02.1: Identification of problem issues (Summary Report) 2. Socioeconomic analysis concerns on SMART project 2.1. Links between WP’s

D02.1: Identification of problem issues (Summary Report) 2. Socioeconomic analysis concerns on SMART project Links with WP3 The analytical tools of TELMAC must include linkages with the socio-economic analysis The result of demographic Projections and mainly the result of the Water Demand Predictive System must be integrated on TELEMAC How to bring policy analysis to TELEMAC? To solve this problem it is necessary to take into account the policy aspects defined by the case study partners when it will be defined as water management options to run the model

D02.1: Identification of problem issues (Summary Report) 2. Socioeconomic analysis concerns on SMART project Links with WP10 Appending socioeconomic indicators The overall goal of the socioeconomic indicators is to develop a set of regional indicators to provide a planning tool for application to water demand at regional and national levels The WP2 represent for the SMART the very first time that the WFD appear as an indication about socio- economics aspects and public participation objectives

D02.1: Identification of problem issues (Summary Report) 2. Socioeconomic analysis concerns on SMART project 2.2. Integrated analysis between socio-economic Tasks Population and Water Population and Water Stress Water and Development Water scarcity and conflict

D02.1: Identification of problem issues (Summary Report) 2. Socioeconomic analysis concerns on SMART project 2.4. Methodological issues How can we approach to the variety in temporal and spatial scales of natural and social systems in order to obtain a description of feedback mechanisms in case study regions? Feedback mechanisms in social systems Time scales in natural systems Cannot generalize the experience for all the country Comparative studies between different countries

D02.1: Identification of problem issues (Summary Report) 2. Socioeconomic analysis concerns on SMART project 2.5. Key finding topics Water scarcity and conflict Degradation and decrease of water resources Societies can adapt to water scarcity? 1.Water use more sustainable 2.Producing goods and services that do not rely heavily on water resource 3.If social and economic adaptation to the water resources scarcity is failed, the economic development constrains could be the source of population migrations

D02.1: Identification of problem issues (Summary Report) 3. Suggestions for a deeper analysis 3.1. People’s participation (as it described by WFD) 3.2. Understanding of geographical relationships between the available 3.3. The Purpose of Sensitivity Analysis

D02.1: Identification of problem issues (Summary Report) 4. Overview Help decision-makers better understand where to intervene to improve socio-economic result; Strengthen the research methodology and theories to understand the patterns result from the interrelationships between all socioeconomic and political factors; Gather together a large quantity of relevant water demand data and make these data available to a better development of the TELEMAC Strengthen the network of experts from different countries and from different disciplines with the same objective

Step 1. Presentation of the general principals and data sets of the methodology for the socio-economic analysis (Cairo’s meeting) Step2. Reactions from the case study partners Step3. Launching of the document Report on Methodologies Step 4. Adaptation of the model systems according to the user requirements of WP 01 Step 5. D2.2: Guidelines for the socio- economic analysis: issues and indicators D2.2: Guidelines for the socio-economic analysis: issues and indicators

Driving forces and pressures The demands of water differ drastically according to life-style, region and level of development. The measures of water demand alone are poor indicators about water quantity and quality. The main objective of the WP02 is the development of an integrated methodological principles for analysing the water demand system and socio-economic changes. The integrated study of changes and prospective thus appears to be an essential contributing factor to the understanding of Global Change. The socialisation of the hydrological models is only fully developed with the creation of a local level of analysis, where it may serve as support for structuring enquiries for agents of change. D2.2: Guidelines for the socio-economic analysis: issues and indicators

Population analysis, including migration issues and projections, i.e. evolution of the demographic variables and the trends observed in the near past. For population data the analysis should rely mainly on the national, regional and local population census (or estimates) to define population’s projections to The projections are neither forecasts nor predictions, but rather calculations of future changes in population size given specific assumptions about trends in fertility, mortality and migration. Population, demographic and migration policy analysis D2.2: Guidelines for the socio-economic analysis: issues and indicators

Population, demographic and migration policy analysis D2.2: Guidelines for the socio-economic analysis: issues and indicators

Population, demographic and migration policy analysis Analysis of demographic policies influencing the growth trends  Population, demographic and migration policies  Birth control policy (e.g. limiting or promoting the fertility)  Migration policy (e.g. limiting or freeing migration policies)  Health (e.g. control of specific diseases or general improvement of the health system) D2.2: Guidelines for the socio-economic analysis: issues and indicators

Political and economic options The level and the pattern of economic growth is, among other causes, a result of the existing policies. This task will analyse those policies and the options for economic growth that can be at the origin of competing water uses The main objectives are to characterise the strategic and regulatory instruments at national, regional and municipal levels; and the identification and characterisation of the different levels of decision related to the water management D2.2: Guidelines for the socio-economic analysis: issues and indicators

Political and economic options D2.2: Guidelines for the socio-economic analysis: issues and indicators

Competing water uses A characterisation of the various actors and interests and the identification of water demands The economic and demographic structure of the rural/urban interface is analysed in terms of the consequences for multi-sectoral current and projected water demand, and the implied conflicts D2.2: Guidelines for the socio-economic analysis: issues and indicators

Competing water uses D2.2: Guidelines for the socio-economic analysis: issues and indicators

Competing water uses Business as Usual Scenario Assumes the continuation of existing trends Depend of the case studies dynamics framework Water Crisis Scenario Population trends that can increase more pressure over water use Aggravation of existing policies and trends that could have harmful effects over water Economic activities growth implying an increasing water use Sustainable Water Use Scenario Assumes improvement of existing or new policies and trends and focus on environment (as the example of WFD) Higher water use efficiency due to water management reform Water prices changes D2.2: Guidelines for the socio-economic analysis: issues and indicators Based on the characterisation of those dynamics in the SMART case studies it will be possible to determine the following scenarios:

Competing water uses The Scenarıos extends the past into the future and is an accurate predictor of the future only if the future events follow the prevıous pattern established The economy of a region depends on the economy of national or international scales Specific forecasts and projections include economic forecasts for each country and corresponding international forecasts to the year 2025, along with United Nations Demographic Bureau projections of the population of the Middle East countries 2025 The scenarıos providıng a range of values for population, employment, and income. For the high end, alternative projections must be developed by various methodologies designed to capture the likely impacts of continued development at the higher rates seen during the last few years Together, the Business as usual, Water crisis and Sustainable water use scenarios provide a range within which growth can reasonably be expected to occur D2.2: Guidelines for the socio-economic analysis: issues and indicators

Economic analysis of water resources The purpose of this economic analysis of water resources is to bring into the analysis the prices of water (by each economic sector), the costs among the different water users and other negative externalities, which can influence this economic analysis. The water price is set on a political base; therefore full- cost pricing of water services is often not achieved. The results of a market price strategy must be analysed, but also the effects of a governmental intervention, which can be based on the defence of social interests. D2.2: Guidelines for the socio-economic analysis: issues and indicators

Economic analysis of water resources D2.2: Guidelines for the socio-economic analysis: issues and indicators

WP 02 Socio-economic framework and guidelines WP2 deliverables are already finished WP2 case study reports: some lacks identified WP2-WP3 must be implemented on the future development of the TELEMAC based on the deliverable reports WP2-WP10 it will be based on the socio- economic indicators already defined and based on the WP2 case study reports Universidade Atlântica - Portugal State of the art