Promoting Green Power: Solar Resource Potential in Atlantic Canada Green Power Labs Inc. Presentation to the Green Power Strategy for Atlantic Canada Workshop September 19, 2005

Overview  Secondary Energy Use in Atlantic Canada  Solar Energy: “Sunny Days Ahead”  Natural Solar Resource Potential  Technically Feasible Solar Potential  Socioeconomic Solar Potential

How We Use Energy in Canada Source: Natural Resources Canada

Atlantic Canada’s Energy Use: Residential Sector (1) Source: Natural Resources Canada

Atlantic Canada’s Energy Use: Residential Sector (2) Source: Natural Resources Canada

Atlantic Canada’s Energy Use: Commercial/Institutional Sector (1) Source: Natural Resources Canada

Atlantic Canada’s Energy Use: Commercial/Institutional Sector (2) Source: Natural Resources Canada

Solar Energy: Three Technologies – One Source Solar Electricity Solar Thermal Passive Solar

Solar Power, Solar Heat or Solar Energy? Green heat and green power are both important Load displacement is just as important as new generation All solar technologies are part of the solution

“Net Zero Energy Home” Concept Current Home Net Zero Energy Home Source: CanSIA

CanSIA: “Sunny Days Ahead”

Benefits of the CanSIA’s “25 by 25” Program A minimum of 25 million megawatt-hours per year of renewable solar electrical and thermal energy. $30 to $40 billion of economic activity for Canadians. 60,000 – 70,000 high quality jobs in the solar industry. 120,000 – 210,000 other jobs as a direct result of solar activities. 15 –30 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emission reductions annually.

PV Technology: Efficiency Trends Source: US Department of Energy, 2005.

PV Module Production and Yearly Module Production Capacity (MW) Source: IEA-PVPS T1-13:2004

Canada: PV Modules Price Trend Source: IEA-PVPS T1-13:2004

Government Funding of PV (2003) Note: Germany ($13.41) & Holland ($7.53) are not shown !!! Source: IEA 2003

Solar Resource Potential Levels Source: IEA-PVPS T7-06:2002

Based on NASA Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy: Global Data from July 1983 to June 1993 Solar Energy: Global Natural Potential

Solar Energy Resource in Atlantic Canada Cities* (kWh/m2) *Average daily solar irradiation on tilted surface

Comparison of solar irradiation* in Moncton and Miami *for latitude-tilted surface

Solar Energy Resource in Atlantic Canada

Solar Map of Nova Scotia Distribution of solar energy (kWh/m2) is based on model predictions spatially adjusted by empirical observations

Green Power Labs Inc. – Solar Calculator* * Based on solar energy model for high resolution digital mapping of solar resources

Technical Potential Assessment Methodology Source: IEA PVPS T7-4: 2002

Technical PV Potential in Atlantic Canada Annual Solar Yield on an individual house roof (MWh) Total Annual Solar Yield (TWh)

Annual PV Power Production Potential per Household in Atlantic Canada MWh

Annual Electricity Use: PV Coverage Share Source: Natural Resources CanadaBasic PV System: 3 kWp installed MWh

Prince Edward Island: Residential Energy Use

Technical PV Generation Potential in Atlantic Canada: Today and Tomorrow Residential onlyResidential and Commercial

Energy Savings: Solar Domestic Hot Water Calculations made at 60 USD/barrel of oil

Solar Energy Variability TABLE 1. QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF SPATIAL VARIABILITY IN SOLAR RADIATION DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS. LevelScale, kmMajor factors LatitudeClimateAltitudeTopographyObstructionsRoof relief Regional10000HIGH LOW 1000MED LOW 100LOW Municipal10LOW HIGH 1MED 0.1LOWMED Local0.01HIGHLOW 0.001MED

Solar Climatology for Any Location

Terrain Assessment

Solar Gain at a Site: Key Factors Fraction of maximum energy received at given angle and aspect of roof

Municipal Level Assessment Oceanview Dr., Bedford, Nova Scotia

3D GIS-Based Modeling

Solar Site Assessment Aerial view of a gas station

Solar Site Assessment June 21 December 21 September 21 October 21 12:00 8:00 5:00 16:00 20:00

Socioeconomic Potential Barriers Policies Strategies

Socioeconomic Potential: Barriers for Customers Bad economic performance: high investment costs are the most visible barrier to PV There is a lack of proper financing opportunities Architectural design and simple standardised systems are not available Uncertainty on the technical performance Lack of information on the benefits of PV Source: IEA-PVPS T7-06:2002

Socioeconomic Potential: Barriers for Society Environmental benefits are not rewarded Lack of awareness with respect to scarce fossil and nuclear resources Customers willingness to pay is not exhausted Low social acceptance Distortions in public education Source: IEA-PVPS T7-06:2002

Socioeconomic Potential: Barriers for Solar Industries The PV suppliers do not know the potential market and they do not know how to reach the market There is lack of proper marketing strategies and a lack of adequate infrastructure for successfully marketing PV systems Communication problems between different actors in the market (e.g. between architects, building companies and PV retailers) do still widely exist Source: IEA-PVPS T7-06:2002

Socioeconomic Potential: Policies Net Metering Feed-in Tariffs (Energy-Based Production Incentives) Long Term Financing Purchase/Installation Incentives

Socioeconomic Potential : Costs Solar as a distributed energy source is unique Costs of Central Power Plants are amortized over years Other nations level the playing field by offering long term loans with interest rate subsidies ( In the US – over 80 solar loan programs in place )

Socioeconomic Potential: Marketing Strategies CanSIA’s Standard Offers Contract for PV Program Objectives To demonstrate government support for solar at a meaningful level (it will bring new private investment into the solar industry). To help bridge the inequality of government support for other energy sources with its support for solar. To stimulate the market for “grid-connected” PV in a manner that allows the industry to grow sustainably.

The Early Adopter PV Market in Atlantic Canada Market Segment Size Deployment Targets for a Standard Offers Contract Program Grand Total 2015: Systems Installed – 5,832 Total Installed Capacity -16,1 MWp Annual Electricity Generated GWh

Residential solar potential of Atlantic Canada in 2015 Technically Feasible: 12.8 TWh Market Target: 18.8 GWh Good perspectives to grow!!!

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