Spain’s Emission Projection Project: Agriculture Julio Lumbreras Rafael Borge Authors: Ministry of Environment Technical University of Madrid.

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Presentation transcript:

Spain’s Emission Projection Project: Agriculture Julio Lumbreras Rafael Borge Authors: Ministry of Environment Technical University of Madrid

Introduction - To obtain emission projections for the period Pollutants considered: - Geneva Convention - Kyoto Protocol Targets of the work -To determine possible future scenarios -To estimate the efficiency of the adopted measures in each scenario -To evaluate the fulfilment of the Directives and the Protocols -Cost-Benefit analysis Friday, 28 th February 2003

Projection Methodology - According to the EEA and EPA methodological framework -The projections are evaluated on country yearly base (assessment for each SNAP activity) Considerations: - Technological - Socioeconomic - Statistical - Legislative Hypothesis: - Activity rate - Emission factors - Emission trends = SCENARIO Friday, 28 th February 2003

Types of scenarios -In accordance with the CAFE criteria, the scenarios are divided into three general groups or types: Baseline: taking into account the past emission trend exclusively Business As Usual (BAU): the more likely situation of air emissions considering approved legislation and adopted plans, measures and policies. Target: the environmental objectives are reached through additional measures (e.g. good practices, technical improvements, further policies, etc.). NO X, SO 2, NMVOC, NH 3 emissions Year NEC CO 2 -eq. emissions Year Kyoto Friday, 28 th February 2003

SCENARIOS Baseline BAU SCENARIOS Baseline BAU Emission data (Inventory) Socioeconomic data Sectoral studies Legislation Technological aspects Basis information - Rate activity trend (A) - Emission factor trend (FE) - Emission trend (E) - Control Factor (FC) and Growth Factor (G) HypothesisMethod for calculation Evaluated emissions Reached? Results Definition of a Target scenario YESNO CONCLUSIONS Specific methodology for the activity projection: Kyoto Protocol NEC Friday, 28 th February 2003

Integration criteria -‘Macroscenarios’ to achieve a coherent cohesion Projection evaluation VA = activity rate Suitability criteria Relations and implications Linked activities SNAP 1 SNAP 2 SNAP... VA 1 VA 2 Hypothesis harmonization Proj 1 Proj 2 Proj... Macro scenario Σ Proj -Software: EmiPro 1.0 Friday, 28 th February 2003

SNAP 10- AGRICULTURE Same methodology for the emission evaluation as the one used for the Spanish National Inventory Scheme of the presentation: - Base information - Main problems during the projection Inventory assessment Raw information ProjectionDoubts Friday, 28 th February 2003

SNAP Cultures with fertilisers except animal manure Base information: - Climate and land characteristics - Amount and type of fertiliser applied - Cultivated surface area - Crop species - Production data (harvested product) Problems: - Projecting the surface area cultivated and its efficiency - Evaluating the future trend of some types of fertilisers and the possible alternatives - Projecting the amount of the culture waste - Is it worth to use such a elaborated methodology for N 2 O emission assessment? Friday, 28 th February 2003

SNAP Enteric fermentation Base information: - Number of heads of the animal population for the different species and categories considered (Agriculture Ministry) - Secondary emission factors (they include the specific methodology for each species and category (Tier 2 approach, IPCC) Problems: - Future changes in assessing the gross energy required Friday, 28 th February 2003

SNAP Manure management regarding organic compounds Base information: - Number of heads of each species - Average annual temperature - Average daily amount of volatile excrement solids - Potential methane emission factor - Distribution of the manure management systems (MMS) Problems: - Evaluating the future trend of MMS distribution - Knowing the evolution of the pasture percentage for each type of animal Friday, 28 th February 2003

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION THE END