Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Actual vs. Modeled Operation of Combined-Cycle Combustion Turbines in the Pacific Northwest Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Portland, OR August 21, 2008

July 17, Excessive Shutdown Disorder: condition where modeled operation of CCCTs exhibit more stops (and starts) than actual operation.

July 17, Q: How do you know if you have excessive shutdown disorder? A: Get EPA’s Continuous Emissions Monitoring System (CEMS) data.

July 17, Pacific Northwest CCCT Dataset EPA CEMS Data: 2006 – Q Hourly Operating Data: 19,704 hours Generating Unit Data: –Aggregate to plant level Gross Generation (in MW) –For gas turbines only (not for HRSGs) Fuel Input (in MMBtu) –Fuel Factor (i.e., Hourly Fuel Input / Max(Fuel Input)) as proxy for CCCT capacity factor

July 17, Northwest CCCTs in CEMS Database Big Hanaford Chehalis Generation Facility Coyote Springs 1 Coyote Springs 2 Encogen Generating Station Frederickson Power LP Goldendale Generating Station Hermiston 1 Hermiston 2 Hermiston Power Plant Klamath Cogeneration Project Port Westward Rathdrum Power, LLC River Road

July 17, Coyote Springs 1: Actual Operation in 2007

July 17, Coyote Springs 1: Modeled Operation in 2007

July 17, Coyote Springs 1: Actual Week Summer

July 17, Coyote Springs 1: Modeled Week Summer

July 17, Hermiston Power: Actual Operation in 2007

July 17, Hermiston Power: Modeled Operation in 2007

July 17, Klamath Cogen: Actual Operation in 2007

July 17, Klamath Cogen: Modeled Operation in 2007

July 17, More modeled starts per year…

July 17, Much shorter modeled runtimes…

July 17, Q: Why is excessive shutdown an important problem? A: Because it impacts: – wholesale power market price forecasts; and – power system carbon dioxide forecasts

July 17, AURORA CCCT Commitment and Dispatch Parameters 5 th PlanProposedSource/Comment Minimum Up Time24 hours17 hoursEPA CEMS Minimum Down Time6 hours3 hoursEPA CEMS Minimum Capacity.40 2 x x 1 Unit SpecificEPA CEMS Ramp Rate100% (1 hour) 33% (3 hours) EPA CEMS Startup Cost--??Warm-up fuel, wear & tear? Shutdown Cost--??Cool-down fuel, wear & tear?

July 17, MIN UP Estimation

July 17, Coyote Springs 1: Actual Up Time Histogram N = 30

July 17, Chehalis: Actual Up Time Histogram N = 78

July 17, PNW CCCTs: Actual Up Time Histogram N = 1,114

July 17, PNW CCCTs: Actual Up Time Histogram N = 759 Min Up = 17 hours

July 17, MIN Down Estimation

July 17, PNW CCCTs: Actual Down Time Histogram N = 1,113

July 17, PNW CCCTs: Actual Down Time Histogram N = 749 Min Down = 3 hours

July 17, MIN Capacity Estimation

July 17, Coyote Springs 1: Cumulative Frequency of Operating Level (N = 14,180 hours)

July 17, Big Hanaford: Cumulative Frequency of Operating Level (N = 4,964)

July 17, Chehalis: Cumulative Frequency of Operating Level (N = 9,601 hours)

July 17, PNW CCCTs: Cumulative Frequency of Operating Level Curves

July 17, Ramp Rate Estimation

July 17, Coyote Springs 1: Ramp Rate Illustration

July 17, Minimum Number of Hours to Heat Input Factor > =.85

July 17, Minimum Number of Hours to Heat Input Factor > =.90

July 17, Minimum Number of Hours to Heat Input Factor > =.95

July 17, Next Steps: Firm-up existing unit and new technology operating parameters Estimate Start-up and Shut-down costs Use AURORA’s new “shutdown penalty” to adjust modeled CCCT operation

July 17, Cycling Parameters… 5 th PlanProposed Cycling Capacity67% Cycling Heat Rate1.6 Cycling Start-up Cost$2.03/MW-week

July 17, Duct-firing Parameters… 5 th PlanProposed Cycling Capacity~ 2-20 MW Cycling Heat Rate9,500 Btu/kWh