The State of the Hispanic Community in the U. S The State of the Hispanic Community in the U.S. National Catholic Council for Hispanic Ministry Portland, Oregon October 26, 2012 Luis Lugo Pew Research Center Washington, D.C. www.pewforum.org

Changing Demographics Chorizo Breakfast Presentation January 30, 2010 2 2

U.S. Population by Race/Ethnicity: 2010 (1) THE GROWTH OF THE LATINO COMMUNITY U.S. Population by Race/Ethnicity: 2010 Total U.S. Population — 309 million These projections illustrate the full impact of immigration on the U.S. labor force. Without post-2000 immigration, the U.S. labor force would actually decline slightly after about 2015 and would stabilize at just below 150 million from 2020 through 2050. With immigration at more than 1.1 million per year, the labor force would grow steadily. Post-2000 immigration adds over 40 million to the labor force by 2050. 3 Source: Analysis of the 2010 U.S. Census by the Pew Hispanic Center IFE Presentation May 19, 2011 31 31

Estimates of the U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Population from Latin America, 2000-2010 Source: Trends in Unauthorized Immigration: Undocumented Inflow Now Trails Legal Inflow & U.S. Unauthorized Immigration Flows Are Down Sharply Since Mid-Decade, Pew Hispanic Center, 2008 & 2010 4

U.S. Hispanic Population, by Origin: 2010 In thousands % of Hispanics 64.9 9.2 3.7 3.6 3.0 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.2 Source: The 10 Largest Hispanic Origin Groups: Characteristics, Rankings, Top Counties, Pew Hispanic Center, 2012

Hispanic Origin Composition: 2010 6 Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations from the 2010 American Community Survey.

Hispanic Population in the U.S. (Actual and Projected) Population in millions These projections illustrate the full impact of immigration on the U.S. labor force. Without post-2000 immigration, the U.S. labor force would actually decline slightly after about 2015 and would stabilize at just below 150 million from 2020 through 2050. With immigration at more than 1.1 million per year, the labor force would grow steadily. Post-2000 immigration adds over 40 million to the labor force by 2050. Source: Analysis of the 2010 U.S. Census by the Pew Hispanic Center Chorizo Breakfast Presentation January 30, 2010 31 31

Hispanic Share Doubles by 2050— Asian Share also Doubles Percent of Total Population 8 Source: Pew Hispanic Center population estimates & projections (2008). *Not Hispanic. Chorizo Breakfast Presentation January 30, 2010 31 31

(2) DISPERSION OF THE HISPANIC POPULATION Where Were Concentrations in 1980? Almost All 15%+ Counties Along Border 14.6 Million Hispanics 6.4% of U.S. Pop. 194 Counties with 15%+ Hispanic 9 Source: Pew Hispanic Center

Source: Pew Hispanic Center Where Were Concentrations in 2010? Many Concentrations Emerge in Distant Areas 50.5 Million Hispanics 16.3% of U.S. Pop. 464 Counties with 15%+ Hispanic 10 Source: Pew Hispanic Center

States with Largest Hispanic Populations: 2010 In thousands   Population U.S. Total 50,478 California 14,014 Texas 9,461 Florida 4,224 New York 3,417 Illinois 2,028 Arizona 1,895 New Jersey 1,555 Colorado 1,039 New Mexico 953 Georgia 854 Source: Analysis of the 2010 U.S. Census by the Pew Hispanic Center

Hispanic Population Growth: 2000-2010 90% growth or more 70% to 89% growth 40% to 70% growth Less than 40% growth Source: Analysis of the 2010 U.S. Census by the Pew Hispanic Center

States with Greatest Hispanic Population Growth: 2000-2010   Growth, 2000-2010 U.S. Total 43% South Carolina 148 Alabama 145 Tennessee 134 Kentucky 122 Arkansas 114 North Carolina 111 Maryland 106 Mississippi South Dakota 103 Delaware 96 Georgia Virginia 92 Source: Analysis of the 2010 U.S. Census by the Pew Hispanic Center

(3) FACTORS THAT DRIVE THE GROWTH The New Face of America White Asian Hispanic Black White A College Education Is (capped; it’s OK in the report) Percent who agree (no period) (OK in report) In the report, it has the question in quotation marks; none of the other charts that carry questions use quote marks. The bullets in the article identify the first group as ages 26 and older, sted 16 and older. (Also, this chart identifies the two groups at the bottom as ages 16 to 25, while the one in the report says they’re 16 to 24, and the % are slightly different. I assume that’s deliberate.) General population (lower-cased) Latino youths (add “s”) All youths (add “s”) (might want to push “16 to” to second line) Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2010 American Community Survey Chorizo Breakfast Presentation January 30, 2010 14 14

Chorizo Breakfast Presentation January 30, 2010 The New Face of America Asian Hispanic Black White White A College Education Is (capped; it’s OK in the report) Percent who agree (no period) (OK in report) In the report, it has the question in quotation marks; none of the other charts that carry questions use quote marks. The bullets in the article identify the first group as ages 26 and older, sted 16 and older. (Also, this chart identifies the two groups at the bottom as ages 16 to 25, while the one in the report says they’re 16 to 24, and the % are slightly different. I assume that’s deliberate.) General population (lower-cased) Latino youths (add “s”) All youths (add “s”) (might want to push “16 to” to second line) Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2010 American Community Survey Chorizo Breakfast Presentation January 30, 2010 15 15

Hispanic Population is Younger These projections illustrate the full impact of immigration on the U.S. labor force. Without post-2000 immigration, the U.S. labor force would actually decline slightly after about 2015 and would stabilize at just below 150 million from 2020 through 2050. With immigration at more than 1.1 million per year, the labor force would grow steadily. Post-2000 immigration adds over 40 million to the labor force by 2050. 16 Source: Statistical Portrait of Hispanics in the United States, 2010, Pew Hispanic Center. IFE Presentation May 19, 2011 31 31

Median Age of U.S. Hispanic Population, by Origin: 2010 Source: The 10 Largest Hispanic Origin Groups: Characteristics, Rankings, Top Counties, Pew Hispanic Center, 2012

Birth Rates by Ethnicity 18 Source: National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics Reports: Births: Final Data for 2009, 2011

Foreign Born Population by Race and Ethnicity 19 Source: Statistical Portrait of the Foreign-Born Population in the United States, 2010, Pew Hispanic Center, 2012

Hispanic Births in U.S. Now Exceed Immigrants 20 Source: Pew Hispanic Center population estimates & projections (2008). Chorizo Breakfast Presentation January 30, 2010 31 31

Percent Foreign-Born Has Peaked 21 Source: Pew Hispanic Center population estimates & projections (2008). Chorizo Breakfast Presentation January 30, 2010 31 31

Asians Surpass Hispanics Among New Arrivals % of immigrants, by year of arrival, 2000-2010 Note: Based on total foreign-born population, including adults and children. Asians include mixed-race Asian population, regardless of Hispanic origin. Hispanics are of any race. 22 Source: 2010 American Community Survey

Share of Foreign Born among the U. S Share of Foreign Born among the U.S. Hispanic Population, by Origin: 2010 Source: The 10 Largest Hispanic Origin Groups: Characteristics, Rankings, Top Counties, Pew Hispanic Center, 2012

Hispanic Educational Attainment II Hispanic Educational Attainment Chorizo Breakfast Presentation January 30, 2010 24

Educational Attainment of 25-to-29 Year-olds: 2011 Source: March 2011 Current Population Survey 25 Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau’s October 2011 Current Population Survey

Educational Attainment of Hispanics by Generation: 2011 (25-29 year-olds) Source: March 2011 Current Population Survey 26 Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau’s October 2011 Current Population Survey

% among adults ages 18 and older Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants, by Race and Ethnicity: 2010 % among adults ages 18 and older Note: Recent immigrants refer to those who came to the U.S. in the three years prior to the survey date (since 2007). “College+” includes those who are either currently enrolled in a four-year college or graduate school or have completed their bachelor’s degree or advanced degree. 27 Source: 2010 American Community Survey

Primary Language Use among Latinos A College Education Is (capped; it’s OK in the report) Percent who agree (no period) (OK in report) In the report, it has the question in quotation marks; none of the other charts that carry questions use quote marks. The bullets in the article identify the first group as ages 26 and older, sted 16 and older. (Also, this chart identifies the two groups at the bottom as ages 16 to 25, while the one in the report says they’re 16 to 24, and the % are slightly different. I assume that’s deliberate.) General population (lower-cased) Latino youths (add “s”) All youths (add “s”) (might want to push “16 to” to second line) 28 Source: 2011 National Survey of Latinos, Pew Hispanic Center Chorizo Breakfast Presentation January 30, 2010 28

The Importance of English and Spanish Do you think adult Hispanic immigrants need to learn English To succeed in the U.S.? How important is it to you that future generations of Hispanics living In the U.S. be able to speak Spanish? A College Education Is (capped; it’s OK in the report) Percent who agree (no period) (OK in report) In the report, it has the question in quotation marks; none of the other charts that carry questions use quote marks. The bullets in the article identify the first group as ages 26 and older, sted 16 and older. (Also, this chart identifies the two groups at the bottom as ages 16 to 25, while the one in the report says they’re 16 to 24, and the % are slightly different. I assume that’s deliberate.) General population (lower-cased) Latino youths (add “s”) All youths (add “s”) (might want to push “16 to” to second line) 29 Source: 2011 National Survey of Latinos, Pew Hispanic Center Chorizo Breakfast Presentation January 30, 2010 29

Share of U.S. Hispanic Population Ages 5 and Older Proficient in English, by Origin: 2010 Source: The 10 Largest Hispanic Origin Groups: Characteristics, Rankings, Top Counties, Pew Hispanic Center, 2012

Hispanics Projected to be Large Source of Growth in School-Age Population 73 54 School-age Population (in millions) 28 11 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, National Population Projections Released 2008

Hispanics Projected to be the Largest School-Age Population by 2050 58% 38% 39% 20% 15% 11% 4% 6% Source: Analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, National Population Projections by the Pew Hispanic Center Released 2008

Young Latinos are Most Likely to be HS Dropouts Percent of 16 to 24 year olds … with a high school diploma or less … (delete period after “Yes”) Didn’t like school Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of Current Population Survey data from March 2009 Annual Social and Economic Supplement Chorizo Breakfast Presentation January 30, 2010 33

Share of Hispanic 18-24 Year-Olds Completing High School, 1972-2011 A College Education Is (capped; it’s OK in the report) Percent who agree (no period) (OK in report) In the report, it has the question in quotation marks; none of the other charts that carry questions use quote marks. The bullets in the article identify the first group as ages 26 and older, sted 16 and older. (Also, this chart identifies the two groups at the bottom as ages 16 to 25, while the one in the report says they’re 16 to 24, and the % are slightly different. I assume that’s deliberate.) General population (lower-cased) Latino youths (add “s”) All youths (add “s”) (might want to push “16 to” to second line) Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of the October Current Population Survey and U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 1967 to 2009. Chorizo Breakfast Presentation January 30, 2010 34

Share of 18-24 Year-Olds Enrolled in College, 1967-2011 A College Education Is (capped; it’s OK in the report) Percent who agree (no period) (OK in report) In the report, it has the question in quotation marks; none of the other charts that carry questions use quote marks. The bullets in the article identify the first group as ages 26 and older, sted 16 and older. (Also, this chart identifies the two groups at the bottom as ages 16 to 25, while the one in the report says they’re 16 to 24, and the % are slightly different. I assume that’s deliberate.) General population (lower-cased) Latino youths (add “s”) All youths (add “s”) (might want to push “16 to” to second line) Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of the October Current Population Survey and U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 1967 to 2009. Chorizo Breakfast Presentation January 30, 2010 35

Hispanic Share of Pre-K through 12th Grade Public School Enrollment and 18- to 24-Year-Old College Enrollment, 1972-2011 Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of the October Current Population Survey (CPS), 2012 36

Share of U.S. Hispanic Population Ages 25 and Older with a Bachelor’s Degree or More, by Origin: 2010 37 Source: The 10 Largest Hispanic Origin Groups: Characteristics, Rankings, Top Counties, Pew Hispanic Center, 2012

Latinos Say A College Education Is Important % who agree that in order to get ahead in life these days, it’s necessary to get a college education A College Education Is (capped; it’s OK in the report) Percent who agree (no period) (OK in report) In the report, it has the question in quotation marks; none of the other charts that carry questions use quote marks. The bullets in the article identify the first group as ages 26 and older, sted 16 and older. (Also, this chart identifies the two groups at the bottom as ages 16 to 25, while the one in the report says they’re 16 to 24, and the % are slightly different. I assume that’s deliberate.) General population (lower-cased) Latino youths (add “s”) All youths (add “s”) (might want to push “16 to” to second line) Source: 2009 National Survey of Latinos for Latino sample, Pew Hispanic Center; 2009 SDT America’s Changing Workforce Survey for general U.S. population Chorizo Breakfast Presentation January 30, 2010 38

…And Latino Parents Emphasize Going to College What do/did your parents think is/was the most important thing for you to do right after high school? Among Latinos ages 16 to 25 Just delete period at end of subhed 39 Source: 2009 National Survey of Latinos, Pew Hispanic Center Chorizo Breakfast Presentation January 30, 2010 39

…Yet Educational Expectations Lag How much further in school do you plan to go? Among 18- to 25-year-olds Educational Aspirations Among Latino and All Young Adults (would have to put Among on top line to fit) In report: How much further (sted farther) Among 18- to 25-year-olds (note hyphens; no period) Labels could be Latinos/All sted Latino Youth/All Youth Technical or trade school (lower-cased) Finish high school (lower-cased) Source: 2009 National Survey of Latinos for Latino sample, Pew Hispanic Center; 2007 Generation Next Survey for all youth sample, People-Press 40 Chorizo Breakfast Presentation January 30, 2010 40

Why Not Continue Your Education? Which of the following are reasons you have not continued your education? Percent of Latino youth ages 16 to 25 with a high school diploma or less, who are not enrolled and have no plans to return to school saying “Yes” … with a high school diploma or less … (delete period after “Yes”) Didn’t like school 41 Source: 2009 National Survey of Latinos, Pew Hispanic Center Chorizo Breakfast Presentation January 30, 2010 41

III Economic Trends

Median Annual Personal Earnings, 2009 Note: Restricted to persons with positive earnings. Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations from 2009 American Community Survey (1% IPUMS)

Education and Income by Racial/Ethnic Group % with a bachelor's degree or more, among ages 25 and older, 2010 Median household income,2010 Note: Asians include mixed-race Asian population, regardless of Hispanic origin. Whites and blacks include only non-Hispanics. Hispanics are of any race. Household income is based on householders ages 18 and older; race and ethnicity are based on those of household head. 44 Source: 2010 American Community Survey

Median Household Income among U. S Median Household Income among U.S. Hispanic Population, by Origin: 2010 Source: The 10 Largest Hispanic Origin Groups: Characteristics, Rankings, Top Counties, Pew Hispanic Center, 2012

Nearly a Quarter of Young Latinos Live in Poverty Percent of 16 to 25 year olds … with a high school diploma or less … (delete period after “Yes”) Didn’t like school Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of Current Population Survey data from March 2009 Annual Social and Economic Supplement Chorizo Breakfast Presentation January 30, 2010 46

Number of Children in Poverty 1976-2010 In millions These projections illustrate the full impact of immigration on the U.S. labor force. Without post-2000 immigration, the U.S. labor force would actually decline slightly after about 2015 and would stabilize at just below 150 million from 2020 through 2050. With immigration at more than 1.1 million per year, the labor force would grow steadily. Post-2000 immigration adds over 40 million to the labor force by 2050. Source: Analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data by the Pew Hispanic Center 31 47 31

Percentage of Children Born to Unwed Mothers % of births to unwed mothers Source: U.S. Census Bureau, National Center for Health Statistics, 2011

Percentage Change in Median Net Worth of Households, 2005 to 2009 A College Education Is (capped; it’s OK in the report) Percent who agree (no period) (OK in report) In the report, it has the question in quotation marks; none of the other charts that carry questions use quote marks. The bullets in the article identify the first group as ages 26 and older, sted 16 and older. (Also, this chart identifies the two groups at the bottom as ages 16 to 25, while the one in the report says they’re 16 to 24, and the % are slightly different. I assume that’s deliberate.) General population (lower-cased) Latino youths (add “s”) All youths (add “s”) (might want to push “16 to” to second line) Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of Survey of Income and Program Participation data. IFE Presentation May 19, 2011 49

(upper bound estimates in billions of 2010 dollars) Purchasing Power, 2000 and 2010 (upper bound estimates in billions of 2010 dollars) Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on 2010 Census data and the 2010 American Community Survey

Latinos and the Economy % of Latino adults saying… A College Education Is (capped; it’s OK in the report) Percent who agree (no period) (OK in report) In the report, it has the question in quotation marks; none of the other charts that carry questions use quote marks. The bullets in the article identify the first group as ages 26 and older, sted 16 and older. (Also, this chart identifies the two groups at the bottom as ages 16 to 25, while the one in the report says they’re 16 to 24, and the % are slightly different. I assume that’s deliberate.) General population (lower-cased) Latino youths (add “s”) All youths (add “s”) (might want to push “16 to” to second line) Source: 2011 National Survey of Latinos, Pew Hispanic Center IFE Presentation May 19, 2011 51

Latino Youth are Optimistic… % of Latino 16 to 25 year olds Very Satisfied Mostly Satisfied Less well off About the same Better off A College Education Is (capped; it’s OK in the report) Percent who agree (no period) (OK in report) In the report, it has the question in quotation marks; none of the other charts that carry questions use quote marks. The bullets in the article identify the first group as ages 26 and older, sted 16 and older. (Also, this chart identifies the two groups at the bottom as ages 16 to 25, while the one in the report says they’re 16 to 24, and the % are slightly different. I assume that’s deliberate.) General population (lower-cased) Latino youths (add “s”) All youths (add “s”) (might want to push “16 to” to second line) Source: 2009 National Survey of Latinos, Pew Hispanic Center Chorizo Breakfast Presentation January 30, 2010 52

Attitudes about Hard Work Can Most People Get Ahead with Hard Work or Are Hard Work and Determination No Guarantee of Success? A College Education Is (capped; it’s OK in the report) Percent who agree (no period) (OK in report) In the report, it has the question in quotation marks; none of the other charts that carry questions use quote marks. The bullets in the article identify the first group as ages 26 and older, sted 16 and older. (Also, this chart identifies the two groups at the bottom as ages 16 to 25, while the one in the report says they’re 16 to 24, and the % are slightly different. I assume that’s deliberate.) General population (lower-cased) Latino youths (add “s”) All youths (add “s”) (might want to push “16 to” to second line) Source: 2011 National Survey of Latinos, Pew Hispanic Center 53 Chorizo Breakfast Presentation January 30, 2010 53

Issue Priorities for Hispanics Ahead of the 2012 Election % of Latino registered voters saying “extremely important” 54 Source: 2012 National Survey of Latinos, Pew Hispanic Center.

IV LATINO CATHOLICS Chorizo Breakfast Presentation January 30, 2010 55

Geographic Distribution of Catholics Northeast Midwest South West All U.S. Adults 19% 23% 36% 22% All Catholics 29 24 24 23 White Catholics 35 31 20 13 Hispanic Catholics 17 9 32 42 Source: Landscape Survey, Religious Affiliation, p. 71. 56

Age and Racial Composition of Catholicism All Catholics 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+ % who are... White 65% 47% 51% 68% 75% 78% 85% Black 2 3 2 2 2 3 1 Latino 29 45 44 26 20 17 12 Other/Mixed 4 5 3 4 4 2 2 Among Catholics ages... Source: Landscape Survey, Religious Affiliation, p. 45. 57

Fertility Rates by Religious Tradition By religious tradition... U.S. Hispanic Catholic 2.85 Black Protestant 2.40 Evangelical Protestant 2.16 Non-Hispanic Catholic 2.09 Mainline Protestant 1.86 Unaffiliated 1.70 Source: General Social Survey, 2000-2008 Note: These numbers reflect the average number of children ever born to women between ages 40-49. 58

Catholic Affiliation of Immigrants by Region of Origin Other South- N.Africa/ Latin Western Eastern East Central Middle Canada Mexico America Europe Europe Asia Asia East Share of Immigrant 3% 34% 28% 11% 4% 9% 4% 2% Population Catholic 19% 72% 51% 28% 27% 27% 3% 9% Source: U.S. Religious Landscape Survey, Religious Affiliation: Diverse and Dynamic, p. 49; Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, 2007 59

Region of Origin of Foreign-Born Catholics Source: Landscape Survey, Religious Affiliation, p. 53 60

Religious Affiliation of Foreign and Native Born Total Population Native Born Foreign Born* Christian 78% 79% 74% Protestant 51 55 24 Evangelical churches 26 28 15 Mainline churches 18 20 7 Historically black churches 7 8 2 Catholic 24 21 46 Mormon 1.7 1.8 0.9 Jehovah’s Witness 0.7 0.7 1.0 Orthodox 0.6 0.4 1.8 Other Religions 5 4 9 Jewish 1.7 1.8 1.5 Muslim 0.6 0.3 1.7 Buddhist 0.7 0.6 1.6 Hindu 0.4 <0.3 3.0 Unaffiliated 16 16 16 Source: Landscape Survey, Religious Affiliation, p. 47; *Includes respondents who were born in U.S. territories (Guam, U.S. Virgin Islands, etc.) and Puerto Rico. 61

Education of Catholics All U.S. Adults All Catholics White Catholics Hispanic Catholics Education Less than HS 14% 17% 6% 42% HS Grad 36 38 32 Some college 23 21 24 13 College grad 16 19 9 Post-Grad 11 10 12 4 62 Source: Landscape Survey, Religious Affiliation, p. 84.

Income of Catholics 31% 21% 55% 22 20 21 30 36 15 18 19 24 9 All U.S. Adults All Catholics White Catholics Hispanic Catholics Income Less than $30K 31% 21% 55% $30-$50K 22 20 21 $50-$100K 30 36 15 $100K+ 18 19 24 9 63 Source: Landscape Survey, Religious Affiliation, p. 60.

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