Prospects for Russian Democracy

Dmitry Medvedev was born in Moscow in 1965

High school graduate

With high school sweetheart Svetlana Linnik

A kitchen of his own

2000s: Key aide to President Putin

May 7, 2008: Dmitry Medvedev is inaugurated as Russia’s 3d President

In the 2000s, Russian state capacity has been partially repaired Putinism has consolidated Russian capitalism, protected it from internal challenges, and returned Russia to the rank of major international actors But huge problems remain unsolved, while new problems have been created

The structure of Russia’s exports: 93% raw materials

The challenges  Modernization of the economy – from hydrocarbons to hi-tech  Rebuilding infrastructure  Social investments: health, education, other social programs to improve quality of life Is Russia up to these challenges? The answer lies in the state of Russian politics

Russia is in a conservative phase In a triple sense:  The new ruling class is determined to maintain its wealth and power  Society is deeply split by social inequality  The public is depoliticized and values stability And yet, Russia must modernize without delay Can Russia’s modernization be carried out while society is in this condition?

ROLE OF THE STATE Economic growth is a result of not just higher oil prices Also – result of a restoration of the Russian state The state needed to be rebuilt That rebuilding was done by very crude methods  It involved increasing abandonment of liberal-democratic norms  And it resulted in consolidation of bureaucratic capitalism

Bureaucracy is bigger, more powerful, more corrupt, and less accountable Among the bureaucrats, the Enforcers (KGB, Inc.) have gotten too strong, other elites resent this Rule of law, always an endangered species in Russia, suffered further setbacks

Business climate in Russia (poll of 1200 executives, WCIOM, Nov.07) 54% - report successful development of their businesses On 11 indicators of “business climate” – “bad’ or “so-so”  Especially hard to start a new business  Government policy is criticized  Bureaucracy, corruption OVERWHELMING: need for clear and strictly observed rules (63%)

WCIOM poll, Oct.08 What kind of state do you want Russia to be? 42% - a democratic system with a market economy (down 6% in 10 years) 16% - a socialist state with a communist ideology (down 4%) 21% - a state with its own type of system and its own path (up 3%) 3% - monarchy and empire (down 3%)

WCIOM poll, Jan.08 55% - country going in the right direction  20% - not (down 10% from 2004) 56% - Russia needs stability, evolutionary reforms  29% - radical reforms (down 10% from 2004) 51% - revise results of privatization, unfair and illegal  29% - No (down from 36%) 51% - all peoples of Russia must have same rights and opportunities  37% - interests of ethnic Russians must be uppermost 56% - treat post-Soviet states as all others  25% - Russia must try to dominate

Deep depoliticization of the society Russians are becoming increasingly private people  I’ll take care of myself  Voting doesn’t change anything  Let the government do its work  Trust the President Opposition movements are marginalized Still, upsurges of activism occur with increasing frequency And the conservative phase may be coming to an end

The Medvedev challenge: Impossible to deal with the problems without reforming the state  No effectiveness without accountability  No accountability without rule of law  No rule of law without electoral dem ocracy

Medvedev: looking for a “third path” between democracy and authoritarianism The issues: courts, media, political rights On these issues, there can be liberalization

But:  Elites fears of instability, loss of control  The Enforcers’ influence  The military-industrial complex Will Medvedev turn to the people for support? Will he try to wake them up? One way or another, political struggles are likely to become more open and intense It is an open question who will win  Liberals are unpopular  Enforcers may appeal to the people, too Their backup option: Fortress Russia

Putin’s politics of order was popular both with the elites and with the public As an emergency program to pull Russia out of its transition crisis In the meantime, Russian leaders continued to proclaim their commitment to democracy, while making more and more “temporary exceptions” from it

The Kremlin’s perspective on democracy in Russia:  First, economic recovery with political stability  Then, the rise of the middle class  Then, a full-fledged liberal democracy

Self-interests of the ruling class are obvious in this approach: the elites are determined to keep their power and wealth, and reject any notions of democracy which would challenge them The Dual Power regime has checks and balances on any liberal reforms Medvedev and Putin are working in tandem But frictions and conflicts between them are inevitable Different interests, different priorities, different groups

Trends to watch Next round of elections Ethnic tensions The economic situation

Anti-Putin demo, December 2010: JeVms JeVms

Moscow riot, December 2010: FrgxxJE&feature=related FrgxxJE&feature=related GjlgKY GjlgKY

President Dmitry Medvedev addresses the Russians on the eve of New Year 2011: AbIiblw AbIiblw